Emperor Franz Josef assassinated right before Italo-Ottoman War, 1911

Just wondering how muddled Europe can get with 2 separate wars at the same time.

I've read threads that say that Russia might not have backed Serbia in 1911 if the emperor is killed as was planned - I have only read it was never successful but don't know how far the plot went or when.

However, I have read elsewhere that Serbia was so upset over the Bosnian Crisis (annexation crisis)that they might have gone to war with Austria. Plus, Austria would be in a bit of turmoil.

However, if this comes late enough Italy will have launched their war on the Ottomans. This puts a major war fairly close to them. could the Serbs ask the Italians to intervene and also declare war on Austria? Could the Italians decide to help the Albanians with independence to help Serbia? Could the Russians intervene even if they would have trouble mobilizing right away, if they know the Italians will back them up as well as the French?

And, how well does the Germans having problems getting nitrates tillt he Haber-Boxch process starts working well negate the French having military problems since the Dreyfuss Affair? Or dot hey even get involved? Perhaps they both sit it out and let the other countries fend for themselves?
 

katchen

Banned
That is a very interesting alternate path to World War I. I can't see Russia staying out if Austria attacks Serbia even if Italy also is involved. Or France staying out. I think that it does mean that Italy (and then France) have a viable way into the Hungarian plain and that a viable Balkan or Central European Front can develop relatively early in the war. Italy would make many initial gains because it is already fighting and might even take Timisoara, Debrecen or even Budapest early on. Transylvania cut off. Possible trench warfare developing somewhere near Budapest or at the gates of Vienna, possibly using the Danube as a battle line in places.
More of an advantage to the Allies . Harder to characterize Germany as an aggressor. Constantinople falls with Ottomans .moving their capital, likely to Aleppo, which is it's second largest city. Or possibly only to Esheshir.
 
If Italy helps Serbia, this spells the end of the Triple Alliance.

Depend if this happen before or after the start of the war against the OE. Before Italy will not help Serbia and the political turmoil can even delay the war, after...well direct help no, nobody in Italy want a war with A-H at this stage due to the ongoing conflict with the Ottoman, nevertheless Italy will obstruct and hinder A-H effort in the zone short of war so to repay the Austrians of the same policy they uphold regarding the Italian war effort against the Turks, the problem is if this petty manouver from both sides can cause an incident who cause a war regardless of the goverments wishes.
 

ingemann

Banned
If Serbia are crushed right before the Balkan Wars, we may see Montenegro and Albania taking much of the gain Serbia got in the 1st Balkan War, more or less giving Montenegro the territory of the later Zeta Banovina, while Albania would gain Kosovo and Albanian Macedonia.
 
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