Embargo Eternal: 1973 Oil Crisis Never Ended

Suppose that around the time of OPEC's formation, an Ayatollah Khomeini-type of dictator came to power in Saudi Arabia after a coup. Full of animosity and hatred toward the "Great Satan", he refuses to sell crude oil to the US for less than $50 a barrel (we're taking early 70s money here).

How would this effect the kinds of cars Americans drive? Would mass transit become more popular? How would this affect the use of plastic in consumer goods?

Or we would simply just use the oil produced here at home rather than export it?
 

tenthring

Banned
High oil prices in the 70s caused increased production. That's what broke the oil cartel, not OPEC niceness. Production for something as capital intensive as oil usually takes many years, so there is a lag after the price rises.
 

RousseauX

Donor
The exact same thing as OTL, other producers raise production since they are incentivized by higher prices until prices drop. Saudi Arabia gets fucked in the end since they need America to buy oil from them more than America needs to buy oil from Saudi Arabia.
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
In that case the economies of the Middle East crater until they start pumping again. Saudi Arabia goes either broke or has a new leader who understands the term fungible commodity.
 
Alright, let's look at it from a different angle...

Without going completely Alien Space Bats, what would it take to make the energy crisis last much longer and how would that affect the world today?
 
The Nixon administration had some planning to invade Saudi Arabia's eastern half(the area with Oil) and leaving the western half alone, plus taking Kuwait and Abu Dhabi.

The only forces that could have done anything about it were the Iraqis, and as the 1972 Easter offensive showed, US airpower was rough on Warsaw Pact style Armored thrusts.

Would that 'Wagged the Dog' away from Watergate and the 'Saturday Night Massacre'?

Nobody wanted fighting in SEAsia any more, but to crack OPEC?
 
The Nixon administration had some planning to invade Saudi Arabia's eastern half(the area with Oil) and leaving the western half alone, plus taking Kuwait and Abu Dhabi.

weirdly enough, I remember seeing a board wargame on this very subject (back in their heyday, wargame publishers were kinda desperate for military subjects to make games about, and latched onto just about every one they could find). From what I remember reading about it, considering the military capabilities of the USA and those small Arab nations, it wasn't a very balanced game.

One affect of a longer oil shortage would be the energy efficiency drive that consumed the US during the OTL embargo... efficient cars, efficient buildings, lower power use in general. The whole SUV deluge that came in OTL would be delayed a while...
 
weirdly enough, I remember seeing a board wargame on this very subject (back in their heyday, wargame publishers were kinda desperate for military subjects to make games about, and latched onto just about every one they could find). From what I remember reading about it, considering the military capabilities of the USA and those small Arab nations, it wasn't a very balanced game.

One affect of a longer oil shortage would be the energy efficiency drive that consumed the US during the OTL embargo... efficient cars, efficient buildings, lower power use in general. The whole SUV deluge that came in OTL would be delayed a while...

I'm pretty sure I recall that game. It was Oil War or something of that nature by S&T? And yeah, it was pretty unbalanced.
 
One affect of a longer oil shortage would be the energy efficiency drive that consumed the US during the OTL embargo... efficient cars, efficient buildings, lower power use in general. The whole SUV deluge that came in OTL would be delayed a while...
That was more from emission controls and safety requirements.

SUV were treated as Trucks, with far lower limits, than for passenger autos.

What would become the SUV, the Bronco, Blazer and Wagoneer all predated the Oil Shocks.
 
I'm pretty sure I recall that game. It was Oil War or something of that nature by S&T? And yeah, it was pretty unbalanced.

Sometime games would reflect reality.

Even with the US armed forces at their post Vietnam nadir, it still would have been a curbstomp, even with Iraqi intervention
 
Probably an earlier expansion of North Sea Oil production (from which we would still have wasted the money instead of being sensible like the Norwegians :mad:)
Also an earlier showdown with the NUM as we would still need the coal? Or more likely Arthur Scargill becomes an even more dominant personality in British politics in the short term but there would be an even nastier fallout in the 80s or 90s.
 
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