Elizabeth I dies of smallpox in 1562

What if the smallpox which Elizabeth caught in this year had killed her, the third of Henry VIII's children to die childless after a short reign? The extinction of the Tudor dynasty would cause a succession crisis with the obvious claimant- Mary, Queen of Scots- a Roman Catholic. Would Mary stand a chance of taking the throne of (barely, four years after Bloody Mary) Protestant England? Was there any real alternative? Was a peaceful succession even possible?
 
What if the smallpox which Elizabeth caught in this year had killed her, the third of Henry VIII's children to die childless after a short reign? The extinction of the Tudor dynasty would cause a succession crisis with the obvious claimant- Mary, Queen of Scots- a Roman Catholic. Would Mary stand a chance of taking the throne of (barely, four years after Bloody Mary) Protestant England? Was there any real alternative? Was a peaceful succession even possible?

I'd imagine we'd see a civil war between the partisans of Mary, Queen of Scots and Lady Catherine Grey, who was next in line if Henry VIII's will was applied.
 
Such a civil war would presumably have a highly sectarian dimension. I wonder what proportion of both the population and the aristocracy were still vaguely Catholic in 1562?
 
Henry Hastings, 3rd Earl of Huntingdon, would also have been in the mix. He's the York pretender at this point along the Clarence/Pole line. His claim is much more distant than either that of Catherine Grey or Mary, Queen of Scots, but he had the advantage of being an adult man with a clear series of male heirs after him (he didn't have any children, but he had at least four younger brothers, the oldest of whom had an heir and a spare of his own). He also had a much stronger personal power base than Catherine, and wasn't a foreigner like Mary.

I can find several references online to Huntingdon being put forward as a potential heir during Elizabeth's illness. Wikipedia sources this claim to Claire Cross's biography of Huntingdon.
 
Lady Margaret Douglas, wife of Matthew Stuart, 4th Earl of Lennox, one of Scotland's leading noblemen, was an heir strong enough to claim the crown and gather around her the most consensus.
Probably for

William Cecil, Lord Burghley, Secretary of State, a two-faced Janus, a skilled diplomat, who knew to take the side stronger (and more profitable), now he saw and worked to make his ancient enemy/victim, the new sovereign legitimate» [There is no doubt that Cecil saw which way the wind was blowing: at the accession of Queen Mary, he made no scruple conforming himself to the Catholic faith (he went to Mass and confessed; he went to meet Cardinal Pole on his return to England in December 1554, again accompanying him to Calais in May 1555. And Lady Margaret even became godmother to Cecil’s baby daughter in 1564].

Margaret Douglas and her husband were rich, powerful, with overt rights, legally married, with legitimate heirs, and they would could bring peace inside and outside the kingdom.

Naturally, the acceptance of Lady Margaret as heiress of the English throne was treated with much scepticism, and objections were raised: the Henry VIII’s Will had bypassed the line of his elder sister Margaret Tudor; the Will of Henry VIII, besides, prevented at foreigners to inheriting English lands and to succeeding to the throne (the 1351 Statute, a law, dating back to Edward III, precluded all those who were born "outside the allegiance of the realm of England" from ascending the throne).

But after excluding all the heirs of Mary Tudor, Dowager Queen of France, who remained? The father of Lady Margaret, Archibald Douglas, 6th Earl of Angus, was a Scottish, it was true; but Lady Margaret was born at Harbottle Castle in Northumberland, northernmost county of England: her English-born she exempted from the exclusion, and, therefore, in the same way, her children, beacuse Henry was born at Temple Newsam, Leeds, Yorkshire, and Charles at Rufford, Nottinghamshire.
Another question was raised: Lady Margaret Douglas was debarred under Henry VIII’s will, beacause she had been deemed illegitimate by Henry VIII on the slightly doubtful grounds that king had not approved of her parents’ marriage as required by the Royal Marriage Act of 1536.
Cecil proved useful to Lady Margaret: she was born twenty-one years before the Act was enacted, therefore exempt.

And probably, in order to gain support, Lady Margaret has sought out the influential Secretary of State: she attempted to win over Cecil, with success, and with his help he began to pave the way to his smooth succession.
In the end, no military means were required to secure the throne and after Margaret’s succession, the focus fell more on queenship, rather than on the legitimacy of his succession: the Counts of Lennox were the most powerful of all England's pretenders.
At the end, after the extinction of the royal line of Tudor’s house, there is hope and chance for the monarchy in the figure of Lord Darnley, Margaret's first son, who had claims to both the Scottish and English thrones, because he was descended from James II of Scotland and Henry VII of England, to reunite the fractured country.

From the 10th of October, Cecil maintained a daily secret correspondence with Lady Margaret to prepare in advance for a smooth succession.
The 16th, with the Queen clearly dying, Cecil sent Lady Margaret a draft proclamation of her accession to the English throne.
Elizabeth died in the early hours of 18 October.
Eight hours later the countess of Lennox was proclaimed queen in London.
Immediately, Matthew Earl of Lennox was released from the Tower and joined to his family at Carthusian Abbey of Sheen accompanied by the Cecil's brother-in-law Sir Nicholas Bacon, Lord Keeper of the Great Seal, and Lord Robert Dudley, tolerated for the time being.
Lady Margaret arrived in the capital after Elizabeth's funeral: she entered London on Sunday 25 October.
 
Certainly the majority of the rural population were: not sure about the aristocrats, but I'd guess at least half.
Staunchly Catholic, for the most behalf, or at the very least crypto-Catholic – the initial stymieing of Elizabeth's religious settlement can be largely attributed to the presence of Catholics in the House of Lords. This is one of the few plausible scenarios that could have brought Mary Stuart to the English throne, actually, coinciding perfectly with her flight from France and coming well before her position in Scotland went totally to pot. With memories of the Lady Jane affair so fresh, I don't see the Greys attempting anything too drastic, providing Mary imposes herself swiftly.
Such a civil war would presumably have a highly sectarian dimension. I wonder what proportion of both the population and the aristocracy were still vaguely Catholic in 1562?
In 1561, the Protestants are a small, mistrusted minority, cloistered mainly about the literate, untitled elite; they lack, in other words, the will and the resources to challenge a new Catholic hegemony in the British Isles. Some of the most bold and committed among their number have not even returned from exile on the continent. The ATL death of Elizabeth (a high church Christian in her own right) comes barely five years after the passing of Mary Tudor, a monarch whom, contrary to popular belief, enjoyed a substantial degree of popular support in her lifetime, a factor which suggest to me that the reinstatement of Catholicism will go down relatively painlessly. John Knox's powerful Scottish acolytes knew when to make themselves scarce; their checkmating of Mary was ultimately down to her abandonment of Edinburgh, permitting them political free rein for a near-decade. With the resources and manpower of England now under her thumb, Mary will have a distinct advantage.
 
Eight hours later the countess of Lennox was proclaimed queen in London.
Immediately, Matthew Earl of Lennox was released from the Tower and joined to his family at Carthusian Abbey of Sheen accompanied by the Cecil's brother-in-law Sir Nicholas Bacon, Lord Keeper of the Great Seal, and Lord Robert Dudley, tolerated for the time being.
Lady Margaret arrived in the capital after Elizabeth's funeral: she entered London on Sunday 25 October.

If this did happen, would the eventual King-in-his-own-right Darnley (well, Henry IX) in England be any less disastrous than OTL's King-Consort Darnley in Scotland?
 
If this did happen, would the eventual King-in-his-own-right Darnley (well, Henry IX) in England be any less disastrous than OTL's King-Consort Darnley in Scotland?

He might end up better--half of his 'problems' so to speak came about because of the company he kept.

Margaret is an interesting choice. I like the idea of Huntington, too. He himself never had any aspirations for the throne, but his idea was mooted when Elizabeth was on her death bed. I could see Elizabeth's council and apparatus putting the reluctant Huntington on the throne in order to preserve the religious settlement.

If Margaret becomes queen, what happens? Does she abolish Elizabeth's religious settlement? Restore the settlement Mary I had established, with a revival of the heretic act? Or would England develop as a state with a catholic royal family but a protestant populace? It happened in OTL but didn't stick, but here religious is still fluid..
 
He might end up better--half of his 'problems' so to speak came about because of the company he kept.

Margaret is an interesting choice. I like the idea of Huntington, too. He himself never had any aspirations for the throne, but his idea was mooted when Elizabeth was on her death bed. I could see Elizabeth's council and apparatus putting the reluctant Huntington on the throne in order to preserve the religious settlement.

If Margaret becomes queen, what happens? Does she abolish Elizabeth's religious settlement? Restore the settlement Mary I had established, with a revival of the heretic act? Or would England develop as a state with a catholic royal family but a protestant populace? It happened in OTL but didn't stick, but here religious is still fluid..

I Think MQOS still marries Darnley in this TL but in time slightly different.
 
In 1561, the Protestants are a small, mistrusted minority, cloistered mainly about the literate, untitled elite; they lack, in other words, the will and the resources to challenge a new Catholic hegemony in the British Isles..

Though they were strong in London, which was disproportionately influential.
 
If Margaret becomes queen, what happens? Does she abolish Elizabeth's religious settlement? Restore the settlement Mary I had established, with a revival of the heretic act? Or would England develop as a state with a catholic royal family but a protestant populace? It happened in OTL but didn't stick, but here religious is still fluid..

Matthew Stewart was an ambitious: he wanted to be made king.
The Queen had a long discussion about this with her husband, and she «asserted that, if he was to be made king, he was not to be made by her, but by an Act of Parliament». She could have done him only Duke of Clarence; he replied that he did not want to be a duke, but king.
When Sir Nicholas Bacon heard of the argument, he insisted that Margaret should consult Cecil on this.
Because Margaret was a devoted Catholic, it was believed her husband, formally Protestant, a great counterbalance.
Further, under the English common law doctrine of «jure uxoris», as the property and titles belonging to a woman became of her husband with the marriage, so any man married to the Queen would thereby become King of England in fact and in name.
Thus the Parliament, referring to the terms of the Queen Mary's Marriage Act and the Queen Consort Act 1540, drafted in haste the King Consort Act 1562, which gave to Matthew the title of «King of England and Ireland» because that he «shall aid her Highness [...] in the happy administration of her Grace’s realms and dominions», only for Margaret's lifetime.
Formally, King [Matthew] was to co-reign with his wife according to the Act, which nevertheless ensured that the new king would not become too powerful.
But Margaret had another problem to be addressed.
The ceremony was traditionally officiated by the Archbishop of Canterbury, who has precedence over all other clergymen and over all laymen. Queen Mary I, a Catholic, has refused to be crowned by the Protestant Archbishop Thomas Cranmer; the coronation on 1st October was instead performed by Stephen Gardiner, Bishop of Winchester.
Also Queen Margaret was Catholic, and also she has refused to be crowned by the Protestant Archbishop of Canterbury, Matthew Parker. The queen had also spoken to depose all bishops appointed by Elizabeth and to restore in their Sees the earlier Catholic bishops. But King Matthew had wisely advised his wife to have prudence.
On the other side, Matthew Parker said not himself willing to crown «a papist woman as Queen and Supreme Governor of the Church of England», when, in the Tower, «there was a young mother who boasted legal rights to the Crown»: Catherine Grey.
Usually, in cases where the Archbishop of Canterbury has failed to participate, his place has been taken by a senior cleric: the Archbishop of York is second in precedence, the Bishop of London third, the Bishop of Durham fourth, and the Bishop of Winchester fifth.
But even Thomas Young, Archbishop of York, Edmund Grindal, Bishop of London, James Pilkington, Bishop of Durham, and Robert Horne, Bishop of Winchester, at the instigation and the example of Parker, refused to perform the ceremony, even them threatening the specter of Lady Grey, had they not been confirmed unconditionally in their positions and offices.
Despite having reigned briefly, Elizabeth had managed to deprive and replaced, one by one, the Catholic bishops with Protestants. Of the old church's hierarchy had only three bishops in their Episcopal Sees.
Anthony Kitchin (also known as Anthony Dunstone), Bishop of Llandaff, retained his see under Henry VIII, Edward VI, Mary and Elizabeth. He followed the opinion of whichever monarch reigned provided that was allowed at him to hold on the See of Llandaff. But Kitchin was an old man of ninety, who could never make the journey by Bishop's Palace in Mathern, south east Wales, to London.
Thomas Stanley, Bishop of Sodor and Man, restored to the bishopric in 1556 then subsequently confirmed as such and appointed as Governor of the Isle of Man by the Queen Mary I, «was remained in favour under Queen Elizabeth I's reign because cousin Edward Stanley, 3rd Earl of Derby and member of the Privy Council. Stanley was famous because notoriously absent in the Episcopal See, and for the neglect of his many responsibilities».
Hugh Curwen, in 1555 by Queen Mary nominated to the Archbishopric of Dublin (nomination confirmed at Rome), and appointed Lord Chancellor of Ireland, on the accession of Elizabeth, had accommodated himself to the new conditions by declaring himself a Protestant: he was, then, an notoriously apostate.

But, here, was appeared William Cecil with of solutions.
He tried, in this way, to show himself, once again, to be necessary and irreplaceable for the Queen Margaret.
The bishopric of Bristol was vacant. After the death of John Holyman in December 1558, no bishop was been appointed in Bristol for several years and then, by letters patent bearing date 29 April 1562, Richard Cheyney, consecrated bishop of Gloucester on 19 April, was allowed to hold the see of Bristol «in commendam».
Now, Queen Margaret could appoint to this episcopal see one of the Catholic bishops who, on her first entry into London, had been recently released from their captivity into the Tower, and she could ask at him to preside the ceremony of coronation.
But it was a risky move, since the queen could be discredited by the Protestants. The precedent of the Queen Mary had no value: Gardiner was not appointed, but "restored" in his Bishopric.
The other solution could have more chances. Cecil had "miraculously" found the letters patent with which Thomas Goldwell was been nominated to the See of Oxford by Queen Mary: the letters of credence by the Pope had been made out, but the royal documents were drawn up, but were not enacted due to queen's death. In June Goldwell has decided to escape from England and since then the bishopric of Oxford was vacant.
Queen Margaret would not have to do anything but call up Godwell from exile Italian, receive from him the homage for the Episcopal See, and entrust to him the ceremony.
But it was necessary to hurry.

Matthew and Margaret were crowned together at Westminster Abbey on Sunday 27 December 1562 by the Bishop of Oxford in a sumptuous and lavish ceremony.
A week later, the eldest son of the couple, the seventeen-year-old Lord Henry Darnley, became heir-apparent and Duke of Cornwall, was created immediately Prince of Wales and Earl of Chester and on next St George's Day he was made a Knight of the Garter. In York Minster, the other son, Charles was created Duke of York.
 
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The ATL death of Elizabeth (a high church Christian in her own right) comes barely five years after the passing of Mary Tudor, a monarch whom, contrary to popular belief, enjoyed a substantial degree of popular support in her lifetime, a factor which suggest to me that the reinstatement of Catholicism will go down relatively painlessly. John Knox's powerful Scottish acolytes knew when to make themselves scarce; their checkmating of Mary was ultimately down to her abandonment of Edinburgh, permitting them political free rein for a near-decade. With the resources and manpower of England now under her thumb, Mary will have a distinct advantage.

The England, in the time of accession to the throne of Margaret, was on the verge of economic collapse, torn by religious factions that the policy of Elizabeth had tightened up, and weakened by a useless and expensive war abroad [Wars of Religion in France and, then, in OTL, in the Low Countries]. It was believed that the new sovereign were to try to remedy the situation.
The English economy, dominated by agriculture and livestock, was being expanded; the textile production (the traditional wealth of the country was the wool) led to the increase in exports and an improvement in living conditions. Consequently, the population grew and London started to become a major European capital where the theater dominated the cultural life.
The policy of expanding maritime and commercial brought the most significant transformations of the time: a powerful fleet in preparation and a business empire to be build in America and Asia.
Even the English society was preparing to major changes: the aristocracy, attracted to the court, lost contact with the base of his power in the countryside and began to face competition from a new social group, the gentry, lesser (minor) nobility formed by wealthy landowners and officials of the crown.
The queen, for her desire for peace in the reign, continued to support Cecil in his work of reconstruction: reform of the currency and development of trade, which is such an important part of the work of economic reconstruction. «Without this re-establishment of social welfare in the country, the reign of Margaret could not resist the internal and external dangers. Margaret's foreign policy was largely defensive, avoiding military expeditions on the continent».



Queen Margaret could not immediately reimpose the Catholic Church by force: he risked losing the throne. For this, in his prudence, began on tiptoe, and it was said of her that was tolerant.
But it is certain that, even though she felt the religious problem, she did not conceive that in the form of a mutual tolerance, that is with a mentality for which the time was not yet ripe.
It was essentially a game of wits: the queen continued to support strenuously William Cecil in terms of policy, but, on the other hand she has blocked the crazy idea of him and the late Queen Elizabeth to equate the persecution on religious grounds at political dissidence. That is to say that he who was not converted to the Protestant faith was accused and convicted of high treason [the fact that all Catholics were traitors, during the years of reign of the last Tudor, was an equation taken for granted].

New life to the English Catholic Church could come from the brilliant idea of the Canon William Allen [in OTL the «English Mission» of the Catholic Reform], under the protection of the family of the Duke of Norfolk.
In Northern England, where several powerful nobles were Catholics
The Scottish Catholics, which supported the party, hoped for aid from France and possibly Spain.
The Earls of Westmorland and of Northumberland plotted to overthrow bishop James Pilkington, the first Protestant and married Bishop of Durham [in OTL he defended the Anglican church against the teachings of the Church of Rome, «worked to ensure the appointment of committed reformers in what was an area of strong Roman Catholic feeling and exercised his patronage of cathedral prebends and invariably nominated zealous protestants, many of them his relatives and friends»], and reinstate Roman Catholicism. The rebellion was led by Charles Neville, 6th Earl of Westmorland [his wife Jane Howard, was sister of Thomas Howard, 4th Duke of Norfolk], and Thomas Percy, 7th Earl of Northumberland: they occupied Durham and celebrated Mass in the Cathedral.
The rising had popular support in the region and an army of 1000 on horse and 6000 on foot was raised.
From Durham, the rebels marched south with plans to besiege York, where the bishop's seat was vacant following the death of the Protestant Bishop Thomas Young, in order to restore as Archbishop Nicholas Heath, who was been deprived of his archbishopric in 1559 by Elizabeth.
After the restoration of Heath as Archbishop of York, the rebels retreated northward and finally dispersed their forces.

And what if they had decided to march north again for the «reconversion of Scotland»?
 
If this did happen, would the eventual King-in-his-own-right Darnley (well, Henry IX) in England be any less disastrous than OTL's King-Consort Darnley in Scotland?

The story might have followed, more or less, the same direction as the OTL.
In February 1563, Margaret asked Mary Stuart, who had returned to Scotland, to allow her husband, King Matthew, to return to Lennox’s estates.
Margaret’s apparent motive was to destabilise Mary at a time when she was intent on marriage to Don Carlos of Spain.
She prudently determined, after her successful accession to the throne of England, to secure, if possible, also the succession of Scottish throne to her posterity, by a marriage between her son Henry, now Prince of Wales, and Queen Mary of Scotland.
William Maitland and Lord James Stewart Earl of Moray have advised Mary Stuart to immediately grant it.
Mary also wanted to meet Margaret’s son, the good looking Henry, the heir to the English throne, although she was still secretly trying to revive negotiations to marry Don Carlos.
Mary was uncertain how to handle her marriage and, on 23 September 1564, wrote: «I am at a loss to know how to satisfy her, and have no idea what to say».
William Cecil, English Secretary of State, was aware that Henry as being much less dangerous than a foreign prince. Henry was already quite arrogant to claim his dynastic rights both on the English throne that above the Scottish. He was a "political lightweight", insufferably spoilt by his doting parents.
On 22 September 1564, Matthew Stewart, King of England and Ireland, as 4th Earl of Lennox, made an impressive entrance into Edinburgh after an absence of nearly twenty years. On 16 October, to Moray’s great annoyance, all his estates around Glasgow and the Clyde were restored.
After the rehabilitation of [King] Matthew in the Lennox’s estates, Mary sent Sir James Melville [to London] to encourage [Queen] Margaret in the ambition for her son.
Despite having a veneer of courtly skills and being a virtuoso player of the lute, the [Prince of Wales] was a Catholic and an objectionable prig, being morally depraved and lacking common sense.
Everyone knew what was going on. The English Court thought him reckless, proud and stupid. He was involved in every sort of sexual excess including homosexual relationships, leaving him with syphilis, although this may not have yet manifested itself.
Cecil may have believed that if they married, he would consolidated power English even on Scotland.
After his arrival in London, Melville wrote: «No woman of spirit would make choice of such a man that was more like a woman than a man, for he was very lusty, beardless and baby-faced».
[Queen] Margaret also has took advantage of the return of Melville to Scotland to entrust him with graceful and valuable gifts, a «fair diamond» for Mary, an emerald for her husband, a diamond for the Earl of Moray, a watch set with diamonds for the secretary William Maitland and a ring with a ruby for Melville’s brother, Sir Robert. The important support of Morton to the match was ultimately also secured by her renunciation of her claims to the earldom of Angus.
Cecil saw the effeminate Prince of Wales as a temporary diversion for Mary to delay more serious propositions, never expecting that she would tolerate his bisexual and boorish character for long. He may even have persuaded the Earl of Moray, who with his tactic of masterly inactivity attempted to delay Mary’s choice of a husband for as long as possible, that Henry was not a real threat.
He thus did not oppose to Margaret in sending the prince for a short visit to his father in Scotland.


Prince Henry set out for Scotland. On arrival in Edinburgh on 13 February 1565, Henry made a favourable impression. As the son of handsome parents, there can be little doubt that he was exceptionally, if effeminately, good-looking with a slim athletic physique.
He was about (the equivalent in by modern standards) six foot two inches tall, compared to Mary, who was only about three inches shorter, and they towered above their contemporaries. Yet beneath his outward appearance, he was an objectionable and self-opinionated boor. Despite his careful education, he had no natural intelligence and lacked common sense. He was often drunk and sexually promiscuous, being openly homosexual.
Henry travelled on to Fife, where Mary was hunting and she was impressed on their meeting at Wemyss Castle, on Saturday 17 February. Margaret had sent him with further generous presents, this time for Mary, Maitland and Moray. Mary was much more impressed than on their previous meetings in France. She described him to Melville as «the lustiest and best proportioned long man that I have ever seen».
She gave no initial sign that their meeting was any more than a courtesy, but Moray saw him «rather as an enemy than a preferer of Christ’s true religion». Henry tried to allay his fears by going with him to St. Giles to hear John Knox preach, but he also attended Mass privately with Mary. He dined at Holyrood with Moray, who suggested that he should partner Mary in a galliard. «A great number wish them well – others doubt him, and deeply consider what is fit for the state of their country».
The Prince of Wales, an able musician with his lute, poet, dancer and player of cards and dice, had charmed Mary. They went hawking and hunting, but she still did not show him undue attention.
Henry soon gained consent during visit his father in Scotland, and no one doubted that he intended to promote his suit in marriage to Mary. No one believed that the match would prosper.
The Prince of Wales lost no time in proposing marriage, which Mary just as quickly declined.
Because he was Catholic, she needed to prepare the ground.
On 5 April 1565, the Court moved for Easter to Stirling Castle, but Henry became ill with a measles-like rash accompanied by «sharp pangs, his pains holding him in his stomach and in his head». These showed all the symptoms of secondary syphilis, which must have been contracted in England before his arrival. Mary insisted on nursing him herself and any formality between them evaporated. As he slowly recovered any pretence at Royal decorum disappeared; she was overwhelmed with feelings that she cannot have known she possessed. He was too narcissistic to become infatuated, seeing her only as a trophy. No one had bargained on the model Queen falling in love out of unbridled passion.
When it became inevitable, with Henry’s gloss of charm, that Mary would marry the prince and she sent Maitland to England for marriage contract, Moray started openly to oppose the marriage. He saw no prospect of retaining his former authority if the Prince of Wales became King of Scots...

The rest is history.
 
Interesting:

Margaret's succession would be complex - without a solution such as a marriage between Darnley and Mary Stuart I hazard impossible - but Mary was in little doubt of her rights to succeed to the throne if Elizabeth died childless and unlike Margaret she has a country at her disposal. Why settle for being Princess Consort of Wales when she should in her mind be Queen - her claim was superior and arguments about her foreign birth wouldn't necessarily wash.

You then have religion - Margaret and her husband's religion had lurched a bit over the years - nominally Margaret was a Catholic and closer to the Henrician model than her cousin Mary - her husband had been one or the other at times and her son Darnley showed a remarked interest in Protestantism once he was in Scotland (though might have more to do with wanting to annoy his wife once the bloom off their marriage faded).

Margaret is a hard sell to the English - no matter how large a part of the populace remained Catholic - the elite are all fairly committed Protestants and they are the ones in control of the organs of Government. Margaret is known to be headstrong, temperamental and has a few skeletons in her closet, she didn't have much of a knack of making people like her. (very much a Tudor in other words).

We know from Cecil's actions after the Queen recovered what his personal view on the subject was as he and others tried to get a bill through Parliament regulating the succession in the event of the Queen dying without issue - in effect the Queen's council would run the country until parliament could judge who was the lawful successor to the Imperial Crown of England. Despite her situation the clearly favoured candidate by most was the Lady Catherine Grey probably because she was not regarded as highly intelligent and the council having dealt with Elizabeth would have probably thought she would be far more malleable.
Whatever the choice would rest with Parliament - Elizabeth understandably made sure the bill made no progress.

This is my version of what I think will happen in the short-term -

The Year of three Queen's (the English Succession crisis of 1562)


Within days' of the death of Elizabeth Tudor two women would be acknowledged and proclaimed Queen as her replacement.
The majority of the council present in London and lead by William Cecil had on news of the Queen's death from small pox been determined to name the Lady Catherine Grey as Queen and they had the support of Elizabeth's loyalist bishops.
The Lady Catherine had been under arrest in the Tower and was pregnant with her second child.
Within two hours of the Queen's death the Constable unlocked her rooms and ushered in the Archbishop of Canterbury (who had recently decreed her marriage invalid) and Sir Wiliam Cecil. The men bowed low to the young woman and addressed her as their Queen.
The young Queen was shocked and nervous at the arrival of the men and insisted on her husband the Earl of Hertford and her uncle Sir John Grey being brought to her before she would acknowledge her accession.
She was frightened her cousin still lived and the men were trying to trap her into treason in order to dispose of her and her claim to the throne - only when the council summoned Robert Dudley to her presence did she finally believe her cousin was dead and she was her only lawful heir.
Queen Catherine was removed to the royal apartments in the Tower and summons were issued in her name for a Parliament to be held, she also would formally sign commissions for the Justice's of the Peace and the appointment of her council.
Sir William Cecil was confirmed as secretary by the young Queen whose first two acts were to proclaim her infant son Edward Prince of Wales and Duke of Cornwall and to restore her husband to his father's Duchy of Somerset with precedence over all other Lords of the Realm.
Archbishop Parker moved to suppress his commission regarding the marriage of Lady Catherine and Lord Hertford ordering all copies burnt. He also issued a formal notice confirming the validity of the marriage.
As Parliament assembled formal dispatches were issued to foreign courts confirming Catherine's accession, being heiress under the Third Act of Succession and the will of the late Henry VIII of blessed memory. Cecil and others ordered significant improvements for defences of the country's northern border and a watch was ordered on such well-known Catholic peers as the Earl of Northumberland and the Earl of Westmorland.

News of Elizabeth's death reached the court of Mary Queen of Scots within a few days - the Queen as in the midst of putting down the rebellion of the Catholic Lord Huntley and his adherrants alongside her Protestant half-brother. Mary immediately issued orders to change her Royal Style to include the Crown of England proclaiming herself the senior lawful heir to the late Elizabeth. Furthermore in letter sent to the English Council she pointed out the late Queen had "given her word she would do naught to disparage our rights to the crown of England" and reminded the council with her usual lack of tact that Catherine Grey was the daughter and sister of traitors and her husband the son and nephew of traitors.
However, Mary was in a precarious position putting down her Catholic peers and her failure to tackle the growing power of the Scots Protestant was not likely to improve her appeal to many English Catholics particularly in the North who might have rallied to her support on the death of Elizabeth.
Some would in the next few months look to the only other obvious claimant the Lady Margaret Douglas, Countess of Lennox. Margaret herself had been holed up at her northern mansion under arrest - her elder son and husband were still in the tower (in OTL they were not released until 1563) when she had received a summons to London before she could depart news from sympathetic Catholic friends suggested the Queen was dead. Margaret whose principal ambition was for her eldest son - slipped quietly out of her home and headed north hoping perhaps to reach Scotland and join forces with Mary - offering support for her claim subject to a union with her son - unfortunately she fell into a trap and was captured by Henry Percy (younger brother of the Earl of Northumberland - Percy was not a Catholic and was Sheriff of Northumberland) and was transferred with her youngest son to the custody of the Archbishop of York Thomas Young. In a letter to the Council - Young said the Countess had insisted she had acted merely out of concern for her safety. The council ordered the Countess transferred to the tower to join her husband and granted custody of Charles Stuart to the Archbishop who was encouraged to purge all Catholic traits from the boy.

Welcome to the war of the English Succession ....
 
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