Elections in the US that could affect those in the UK, and vice-versa

Thande

Donor
Generally foreign policy (at least as far as relations between allies, as opposed to troops-out-of-Whereverstan) does not play a big part in elections on either side of the Pond. I'm not suggesting an election going differently in the US is automatically going to flip a subsequent one in the UK, much less the other way around--not unless the election is so close that a tiny difference could flip it. But this thread is for discussing consequences from different elections on one side of the Pond that could nonetheless have a certain effect on the other, if not so dramatic.

For example, take 1992. If the Conservatives had lost in the UK and Kinnock had announced a less pro-American foreign policy...well in the US Bush was going to lose a few months later no matter what happened, but something like this could be disproportionately important, just because Bush staked so much on his foreign policy record and the Gulf War, and his opponents could spin Kinnock's moves as "this Gulf War you say went so swimmingly, well the voters in our closest ally seem to disagree". It wouldn't change the overall result, but it might make Bush's defeat even worse.

What other examples of this type can you think of?
 
Well, had Wallace or Taft won in 1948, Churchill may have had to try and convince Britain to be the major power in NATO.
 

Thande

Donor
If Bush II had lost in 2004 I think it would have piled on more pressure for Blair to go and might have led to an earlier Brown premiership: Blair would be seen as having nailed his colours to a mast the American people had rejected as well as British public opinion, and Blair meeting Kerry on the White House lawn would have a decidedly awkward air. Again this is only true because Blair was so close to going anyway in 2004, this might just be enough to tip him over the edge. If Brown was PM going into the 2005 election Labour would probably do better than OTL as Brown would be able to draw more of a line under the Iraq war. OTOH if Brown, being Brown, decided to delay the election to 2006, things get a bit more unpredictable--Brown's awkwardness would start to come out and it would sap public confidence. Still, as there was no sign of the financial crisis on the horizon, Labour would still comfortably win in 2006--you can argue whether it would be a better or worse majority than OTL 2005.
 
If Bush II had lost in 2004 I think it would have piled on more pressure for Blair to go and might have led to an earlier Brown premiership:

I think it would do the exact opposite actually. A President Kerry - and this is what I think some people close to Blair were silently praying for - would make Blair's pro-Americanism much less of a liability and allow for a reboot of the relevant issues. The idea that Blair had no influence in the Bush White House would seem much less plausible under Kerry. Kerry would at least pay lip service to the kind of ideas Blair was favourable to - internationalising the Iraq issue, etc. Blair would be able to do what he liked to do on something bad, which is "Look, we've drawn a line on that." That's even before we get into the possibilites of an earlier surge, etc.
 
I think it would do the exact opposite actually. A President Kerry - and this is what I think some people close to Blair were silently praying for - would make Blair's pro-Americanism much less of a liability and allow for a reboot of the relevant issues. The idea that Blair had no influence in the Bush White House would seem much less plausible under Kerry. Kerry would at least pay lip service to the kind of ideas Blair was favourable to - internationalising the Iraq issue, etc. Blair would be able to do what he liked to do on something bad, which is "Look, we've drawn a line on that." That's even before we get into the possibilites of an earlier surge, etc.

I think that makes more sense.

Also Blair's Third Way strategy and rise to power owe a lot to Bill Clinton's success. So maybe no Clinton presidency, and no Blair government in 1997 (or a different New Labour anyway).
 
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