Election 1964: Moderate Republicans prevail

In the Republican Primary of 1964 the final showdown between Goldwater and Rockefeller was in the California primary. In 1963 Rockefeller had earned unfavorable publicity when he suddenly divorced his wife and soon thereafter remarried a much younger woman. The fact that the woman, Happy Murphy, had also suddenly divorced her husband before marrying Rockefeller led to rumors that Rockefeller had been having an extramarital affair with her. This angered many social conservatives within the GOP; many of whom whispered that Rockefeller was a "wife stealer". In spite of these accusations, Rockefeller led Goldwater in most opinion polls in California, and he appeared headed for victory when his new wife gave birth to a son, Nelson Rockefeller, Jr., a few days before the primary. His son's birth brought the issue of adultery front and center, and Rockefeller suddenly lost ground in the polls. Goldwater won the primary by a narrow 51% - 49% margin, thus eliminating Rockefeller as a serious contender and all but clinching the nomination.


Now alternately let's say Rockefeller never ad an afair, that he never left to have an affair and stayed with his wife and won the Caliornia Primary and hence, the nomination. What becomes of the Republican Party? What happens in the match up between Johnson and Rockefeller?
 
Rocky still loses though Johnson won't be able to paint the entire GOP with a Goldwater-ite brush, no "Daisy" ad maybe. Nixon probably picks up the pieces as in OTL I think though maybe Reagan could challenge him, hard to say though.
 
No way would the South go for Rocky- he was almost as liberal as Johnson. The way I see it is that the states that IOTL voted for Goldwater- minus Arizona, of course- either go the 1960 uncommited delegate route or perhaps run a full-fledged separate Dixiecrat campaign ala 1948 or 1968. Maybe George Wallace runs four years early.
 
OK Ok considering all those....circumstances I'm trying to get the party adjusted for a comeback for Republicans who are centrist and moderate so that the moderates are in power today!
 
Election 1968

Rockefeller/Scranton 310
Humphrey/Muskie 181
Wallace/LeMay 47





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If Rockefeller is the nominee then Wallace runs as a third party candidate as he did OTL in 1968. I think there is not a dime worth of difference between the major party candidates would have been more effective. I think he wins many Goldwater voters and does better than he did in 68.
 
I don't think Rockefeller would win Texas. You have him losing his home state. I think Wallace does better running against two people with long liberal records.
 
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How I feel the (1968) Presidential Election would play out. Rockefeller would likely have accepted Humphrey's offer to a series of debates which would include Wallace, and win decisively. This allows him to do well just about everywhere except the South, where the contest is largely between Wallace and Humphrey.​
 
Rockefeller's best shot is in 1960, period. If he enters the field for the Republican nomination and lines the Eastern Establishment up against Nixon, the nomination is his. Remember, it wasn't until very recently that the VPOTUS was the assumed successor of the incumbent President. Nixon can still lose the Republican nomination in '60. Outside of the party's conservatives, the man was never *that* popular.

If Rockefeller wins the Republican nomination, the Democrats will probably still end up nominating Kennedy anyway. Or of course there's always the possibility that they don't and nominate someone else. Let's say that to counter the perception of Rockefeller being some sort of latter day robber baron out to buy the election, the Democrats nominate Humphrey, who is a lot more left-leaning than Kennedy and also a weaker candidate more generally. 1960 is going to be a close election, but Rockefeller might be able to beat Humphrey if Humphrey is unable to secure the South (almost certain to happen, should he insist on a Civil Rights platform).

And there you have it. President Rockefeller in 1961. A good economy helps him win re-election in '64, though by '68, the Democrats come back from their sixteen year exile with the election of Bobby Kennedy and a solidly liberal Congress...
 
IMO, Goldwater made a mistake in running for President in 1964. Had he have instead opted to run for re-election to the Senate, Rockefeller would have surely won the GOP presidential nomination, and surely would have lost to LBJ. That would have discredited the liberal-moderate wing of the GOP, and Goldwater would have had a pretty decent chance of winning the White House in 1968.
 
I'm surprised no one mentioned the possibility of one of those assasination attempts on Ford succeeding. Can't say I know much about either of them, but I think 2 women tried separately to kill Ford within weeks of each other and both of them took place in California.

If one of them succeeds, VP Rockefeller becomes president. I think there's a good chance Rocky wins the 1976 election here. I know Reagan is probably still going to primary him, but there's been a pretty fast turnover of presidents ITTL and the GOP (and voters in general come to think of it) may well want to stick with the man they have. Furthermore, there's likely to be a sympathy boost from Ford's untimely death (though not as big as the one LBJ received from JFK's assassination).

I wouldn't rule out Reagan clinching the nomination in 1976-after all Rocky was dropped as VP IOTL. Perhaps this scenario hasn't been mentioned in this thread because the consensus amongst people more knowledgeable than me is that Reagan's challenge would work here.

Let's say president Rockefeller wins the nomination thoug, going on to beat Carter (or whoever the Dems put up against him).

IOTL he lived until 1979, I see him dying sooner here, perhaps at the mid way point of his term.

I think if Rocky did get the nomination in 1976, he'd be forced in to choosing a conservative running mate who meets with Reagan's approval. I personally doubt it'd be Reagan himself, but I could be wrong. Whoever it is, will end up president during the worst half of the OTL Carter presidency. I'm no fan of Carter's handling of most things during his term, but I think it would take a lot for any president to come out of it well.

Baring in mind the GOP had won 3 elections on the bounce; it's safe to assume that Rocky's VP helps discredit the conservative movement by losing the 1980 election.

If you can make the republicans nominate another conservative in 1984, they lose to the democrats, if the economy stays healthy. From then on you're laughing-in 1988 the republicans believe a moderate heading up the ticket is necessary to regain the WH and that's what happens, either in 1988 or 92.

This probably produces the desired outcome of a moderate GOP, with Rocky as president as the Pod.
 
Rocky potentially could have done worse than Goldwater overall, but might have taken New York away from Johnson. Then, the Goldwater wing of the Party is well-placed for the "We told you so" campaign in 1968.

Now, I agree that a later POD, in the Ford era, is a good way of preserving or setting a different course for the modern GOP.
 

Rockefeller, despite his presence, would have alienated a great many Conservatives simply through his political beliefs, and also what he stood for, not to mention memories of the '64 Campaign among other things. Reagan for this reason and others refused to support Gerald Ford in OTL if Rockefeller were on the ticket; having the latter on the top is certainly not going to change things.

Rockefeller can run for the nomination (he had actually begun to grow tired of Washington, so there is a chance he might not have run even if in the position of winning) but he would be facing a stronger challenge than that of Ford; Ford moved to the Right to help himself face Reagan, Rockefeller will not do this, and really cannot. Even if he does overcome the odds you are looking at a '64 level schism in the Republican Party lead by the likes of Jesse Helms, James Buckley, and Ronald Reagan, and nothing Nelson does will get those people to support his campaign for the Presidency.

In effect, Rockefeller would need to be extremely lucky, extremely, in order to just cross the finish line.​
 
Election 1964

Rockefeller would have at least held the African American Eisenhower/Nixon/Lodge vote. This was around 32-39%. I think that we would have alot more black Republicans today had it not been for Goldwater in 1964.
 
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