El Alamein

On the 1st and 2nd July 1942 Rommel’s Afrika Corps succeeds in blowing a devastating defeat on the Commonwealth forces in Egypt (POD) effectively ending the British VIII Army as a coherent fighting force.

The details of the POD (Additional German and/or Italian reinforcements and /or better strategic decisions and intelligence) are not important. The bottom line is: the road to Cairo and to the Nile is opened without any significant forces to oppose the axis armies.

What will the next few days/weeks be like?
Where will the British make their next stand, considering that the forces committed to Egypt are lost at El-Alamein? From where will they bring reserves? South Africa, India?
With the fall of Egypt the oil fields of the Gulf are within grasp of the axis powers, will we see a division of forces with the Italians moving south along the Red Sea Coast and the German going for Palestine and beyond?
Will the Germans find much support with the Arabic populations?
 

CalBear

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On the 1st and 2nd July 1942 Rommel’s Afrika Corps succeeds in blowing a devastating defeat on the Commonwealth forces in Egypt (POD) effectively ending the British VIII Army as a coherent fighting force.

The details of the POD (Additional German and/or Italian reinforcements and /or better strategic decisions and intelligence) are not important. The bottom line is: the road to Cairo and to the Nile is opened without any significant forces to oppose the axis armies.

What will the next few days/weeks be like?
Where will the British make their next stand, considering that the forces committed to Egypt are lost at El-Alamein? From where will they bring reserves? South Africa, India?
With the fall of Egypt the oil fields of the Gulf are within grasp of the axis powers, will we see a division of forces with the Italians moving south along the Red Sea Coast and the German going for Palestine and beyond?
Will the Germans find much support with the Arabic populations?

The POD is everything here. How they managed to do something that they had never been able to remotely achieve is crucial. Did they somehow get 500 more Panzers from the Tank Fairy? The Italian forces suddenly become Waffen SS? The UK run out of Fuel or ammo? For that matter, what is the Afrika Corps fuel state? Air cover?

All of these have enormous impact on the next stage of the war. More than any other theater the logistics of the combatants were vital in the Desert (no water = disaster).
 
The POD is everything here. How they managed to do something that they had never been able to remotely achieve is crucial. Did they somehow get 500 more Panzers from the Tank Fairy? The Italian forces suddenly become Waffen SS? The UK run out of Fuel or ammo? For that matter, what is the Afrika Corps fuel state? Air cover?

All of these have enormous impact on the next stage of the war. More than any other theater the logistics of the combatants were vital in the Desert (no water = disaster).

Like I said Rommel takes a rabbit out of the hat. Let's assume our TL conditions and that the German's are able to know the presence of the 18th Indian Brigade (which they failled to do in our TL) and exploit that weaker point in the British lines.
 

Markus

Banned
The details of the POD (Additional German and/or Italian reinforcements and /or better strategic decisions and intelligence) are not important.

What will the next few days/weeks be like?


The details of the POD are all important.The Brits had a railroad line running from El Alamein to the major ports, plus a position that can not be outflanked!
No amount of Axis reinforcements short of ASB is going to change anything! The Axis did not even have the logistical capabilities to supply the OTL-forces once they crossed the border into Egypt.
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
Like I said Rommel takes a rabbit out of the hat. Let's assume our TL conditions and that the German's are able to know the presence of the 18th Indian Brigade (which they failled to do in our TL) and exploit that weaker point in the British lines.

In that case, the U.S. lands five divisions, totaling 100,00 men, with 500 Shermans, 800 155mm guns, 2900 tons of supplies, led by Patton at Suez, along with two Australian and a Canadian division, on July 4. These forces are backed up by 350 P-40E fighters, 125 P-38 fighters and 200 B-25 Medium bombers. The USN immediately begins to conduct air strikes from USS Ranger and the brand new USS Essex (diverted from the Pacific) on German supply lines.

Next rabbit?
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
The details of the POD are all important.The Brits had a railroad line running from El Alamein to the major ports, plus a position that can not be outflanked!
No amount of Axis reinforcements short of ASB is going to change anything! The Axis did not even have the logistical capabilities to supply the OTL-forces once they crossed the border into Egypt.


Got the ASB covered.
 
With the fall of Egypt the oil fields of the Gulf are within grasp of the axis powers, will we see a division of forces with the Italians moving south along the Red Sea Coast and the German going for Palestine and beyond?
Putting aside the somewhat unlikely PoD (unlikely on multiple two, first a German break through and second the near complete destruction of the 8th Army) let's examine one of your ideas:

Oilfields within the grasp of the axis? I think not... to take the Gulf oil fields the Germans will need to advance a comparable distance to their previous advance from the Italian North African colonies. Given the likely state of Alexandria and other Egyptian ports (out of action, clogged with wrecks, etc) the nearest effective port will be Tobruk... so you've got extra long supply lines.
 
As a PoD how about Auchinleck doesn't replace Ritchie after the Battle of Gazala? Ritchie's weak leadership compounds the OTL mistakes during the Battle of Mersa Matruh. As a result the rout at Mersa Matruh, British X and XIII Corps are weaker than OTL at 1st Alamein. As a result the forces are not available to counter attack the Afrika Korps outflanking maneuver at Ruweisat Ridge. The British position is outflanked and collapses.

Another possibility is that the Afrika Korps 'bounce' the Free French at Bir Hakeim, maybe because its significance is recognised by Rommel, who assigns German rather than Italian troops to the first attack. That means the Battle of Gazala is even more of a disaster for the British. The Africa Korps then harries the routing British, and there is no Battle of El Alamein just a victorious advance to the Suez canal.
 
Hitler would have to agree to expidite more supplies to the Afrika Korps for any of this to happen. Unless Admiral Raeder convinces Hitler of the importance of the Mediterranean strategy, the Germans and Italians will never have the force to dislodge the British. We mustn't forget that to the Germans, North Africa was a sideshow, but to the British it was their major theatre of campaign for more than a year. Despite the difficulties, Britain will always be able to pour more resources into the North African campaign than the Axis ever could.
 
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