The defeat of the Japanese amphibious assault has bought the defenders of Corregidor some time. How much time is debatable. Perhaps 2 to 4 months? It is not possible to reinforce the garrison or resupply them sufficiently enough so that they can hold out indefinitely. And there are about 10,000 troops and personnel to be provisioned. So what must be done? Here are the only 3 possible options as I see it.
1.Hold out until the food is exhausted and/or the next attack is suspected and then surrender. This extends the length of the siege to force the Japanese to commit resources for a second assault. But by judicious (or lucky) timing surrendering the fortress before the next attack happens may spare the garrison from a massacre. Maybe. They will still have to endure the horrid conditions of the Japanese POW camps.
2.Or they can face the inevitable and likely larger second attack after enduring another extended shelling and bombing barrage. The garrison will have reduced supplies and artillery and smaller numbers of effective troops. I don't think they can defeat the second attack and as they are overrun it will likely become a massacre. This isn't directly asking or ordering 10,000 men to fight to the death but the circumstances will make this the probable outcome. And the men would realize this.
Is the heavy cost of this option worth the benefit of delaying other Japanese operations elsewhere?
Third option this TL may permit is large scale evacuation. If not the entire garrison than as many as possible. By using submarines. As many as can be spared and in particular the large old boats if they are seaworthy enough. How to conduct this underwater Dunkirk? If I understand this TL the closest support base for the submarine is Rabaul. That's good but its still more than 2000 miles or more one way by any practicable sea route.
I don't see why each submarine must return to Rabaul each time after loading up evacuees. There must be various locations in the Visayas and Mindoro that can be secured by local forces of Filipino and/or American troops. This would enable much shorter round trips for the evacuation. This is important when considering you may have as many as 200 extra men aboard a submarine with its crew of 100. There is going to be a big reduction in the length of time it can remain submerged before the oxygen in the air is consumed.
They must remain submerged during the daylight hours because of air and sea patrols. With 3 times the people onboard they will have to stop every few hours to replenish the boats' air. In daytime that would mean stopping and a slow cautious surfacing, perhaps just the conning tower poking above the surface with hatch opened to allow some ventilation. Very awkward and dangerous. Doable for a trip of a few hundred miles maybe but not for the long trip to Rabaul. The faster consumption of the breathable air won't be the only difficulty on these overcrowded subs. Just the most critical one.
Disembarking the evacuees in the Southern Philippines works well for the Filipino troops of the Corregidor garrison. They don't stand out from the civilian population so they can move around and disperse. They may also join the currently forming guerrilla forces. I would guess healthy fit soldiers leaving Corregidor would take their small arms with them.
For the American troops this is still a good method providing where they are being put ashore isn't totally under Japanese control as they can't be concealed as easily. They can reboard an evacuation submarine at some later date to be taken to Rabaul or Australia. And most likely some of the American soldiers will volunteer to join the guerrilla forces.
The walking wounded can also be temporary relocated to the South until submarine transport to Australia can be arranged. The severely wounded stretcher cases will require some hard decisions by the doctors or the patients themselves if they are conscious. Many of these wounded man should not be moved at all. And now they are facing being bumped around and fitted through a 30 inch hatch. Should they risk the trip on a submarine that quite likely some of these unfortunate soldiers won't survive or be left to be captured by the Japanese army?
A mass evacuation is possible in TTL. If the six big old boats can carry about 200 personnel each trip and if each boat can manage 5 trips a month from Corregidor to the Southern Philippine Islands that is 6000 evacuees. There may also be a few fleet boats temporary assigned to this operation. Would it be possible to take everybody off under the nose of the Japanese Navy and air forces? That would be another miracle like Dunkirk and I would think not. It could be that a skeleton garrison of volunteers will stay behind to give the impression that the defenses are fully manned. And to destroy anything that could be of use to the enemy. Could these brave volunteers be the last troops taken off after they've finished spiking the guns and rigging the magazines with timed explosives?
There are a lot of things that can go wrong here and there will likely be some losses. How many submarines will be detected and sunk? If the Japanese learn what is going on they can target the boarding areas where the subs are docked at night. The embarkation areas could be discovered and attacked. The whole thing is very adhoc and risky and potentially it could become a costly disaster. But compare this to the other two options available to the 10,000 defenders of Corregidor.
1.Hold out until the food is exhausted and/or the next attack is suspected and then surrender. This extends the length of the siege to force the Japanese to commit resources for a second assault. But by judicious (or lucky) timing surrendering the fortress before the next attack happens may spare the garrison from a massacre. Maybe. They will still have to endure the horrid conditions of the Japanese POW camps.
2.Or they can face the inevitable and likely larger second attack after enduring another extended shelling and bombing barrage. The garrison will have reduced supplies and artillery and smaller numbers of effective troops. I don't think they can defeat the second attack and as they are overrun it will likely become a massacre. This isn't directly asking or ordering 10,000 men to fight to the death but the circumstances will make this the probable outcome. And the men would realize this.
Is the heavy cost of this option worth the benefit of delaying other Japanese operations elsewhere?
Third option this TL may permit is large scale evacuation. If not the entire garrison than as many as possible. By using submarines. As many as can be spared and in particular the large old boats if they are seaworthy enough. How to conduct this underwater Dunkirk? If I understand this TL the closest support base for the submarine is Rabaul. That's good but its still more than 2000 miles or more one way by any practicable sea route.
I don't see why each submarine must return to Rabaul each time after loading up evacuees. There must be various locations in the Visayas and Mindoro that can be secured by local forces of Filipino and/or American troops. This would enable much shorter round trips for the evacuation. This is important when considering you may have as many as 200 extra men aboard a submarine with its crew of 100. There is going to be a big reduction in the length of time it can remain submerged before the oxygen in the air is consumed.
They must remain submerged during the daylight hours because of air and sea patrols. With 3 times the people onboard they will have to stop every few hours to replenish the boats' air. In daytime that would mean stopping and a slow cautious surfacing, perhaps just the conning tower poking above the surface with hatch opened to allow some ventilation. Very awkward and dangerous. Doable for a trip of a few hundred miles maybe but not for the long trip to Rabaul. The faster consumption of the breathable air won't be the only difficulty on these overcrowded subs. Just the most critical one.
Disembarking the evacuees in the Southern Philippines works well for the Filipino troops of the Corregidor garrison. They don't stand out from the civilian population so they can move around and disperse. They may also join the currently forming guerrilla forces. I would guess healthy fit soldiers leaving Corregidor would take their small arms with them.
For the American troops this is still a good method providing where they are being put ashore isn't totally under Japanese control as they can't be concealed as easily. They can reboard an evacuation submarine at some later date to be taken to Rabaul or Australia. And most likely some of the American soldiers will volunteer to join the guerrilla forces.
The walking wounded can also be temporary relocated to the South until submarine transport to Australia can be arranged. The severely wounded stretcher cases will require some hard decisions by the doctors or the patients themselves if they are conscious. Many of these wounded man should not be moved at all. And now they are facing being bumped around and fitted through a 30 inch hatch. Should they risk the trip on a submarine that quite likely some of these unfortunate soldiers won't survive or be left to be captured by the Japanese army?
A mass evacuation is possible in TTL. If the six big old boats can carry about 200 personnel each trip and if each boat can manage 5 trips a month from Corregidor to the Southern Philippine Islands that is 6000 evacuees. There may also be a few fleet boats temporary assigned to this operation. Would it be possible to take everybody off under the nose of the Japanese Navy and air forces? That would be another miracle like Dunkirk and I would think not. It could be that a skeleton garrison of volunteers will stay behind to give the impression that the defenses are fully manned. And to destroy anything that could be of use to the enemy. Could these brave volunteers be the last troops taken off after they've finished spiking the guns and rigging the magazines with timed explosives?
There are a lot of things that can go wrong here and there will likely be some losses. How many submarines will be detected and sunk? If the Japanese learn what is going on they can target the boarding areas where the subs are docked at night. The embarkation areas could be discovered and attacked. The whole thing is very adhoc and risky and potentially it could become a costly disaster. But compare this to the other two options available to the 10,000 defenders of Corregidor.
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