Eisenhower in the Pacific: Part 1 The Shoestring Warriors of Luzon

On top of the better situation of US/PI troops, they will be fighting a campaign run much more rationally. Falling back to established defensive positions until they get to Bataan which is not properly fortified and well stocked. The Southern PI represent a lifeline, however tenuous for much longer, as well as a springboard for harassing attacks against the Japanese. The OTL eventual actions of the Japanese, which was to nibble at the Bataan and Manila Bay positions until they collapsed as much from starvation as anything else won't work here.
 

Driftless

Donor
As long as the Philippines appears to be viable along their flank, would the Japanese fully commit to a Singapore/Burma offensive, as they did historically?
 
As long as the Philippines appears to be viable along their flank, would the Japanese fully commit to a Singapore/Burma offensive, as they did historically?

those operations are underway at the same time with different units

The Japanese 48th Infantry Division however is supposed to take a major role in the Invasion of Java, so what happens to it will have a significant impact. That formation was a specially trained amphibious assault division and has a spearhead role for that reason in the Philippines and Java historically

In other news...
Finally got the scenario edited, so going to run through it a few times to see what results I get in the aggregate before doing the outlining and writing.
 
those operations are underway at the same time with different units

The Japanese 48th Infantry Division however is supposed to take a major role in the Invasion of Java, so what happens to it will have a significant impact. That formation was a specially trained amphibious assault division and has a spearhead role for that reason in the Philippines and Java historically

In other news...
Finally got the scenario edited, so going to run through it a few times to see what results I get in the aggregate before doing the outlining and writing.

This mean the naval face is over and we can not expect any US subs/aircraft/surface wessels to take out a transport or two?
 
Just checked into this timeline and caught up with it. Solid work, well researched. Please keep it up, at least through the summer of '42. Can't wait to see how Bataan unfolds.
 
Chipping away the defenses December 13-21 1941
Japanese preinvasion preparation December 12-20, 1941
The Japanese continue to hammer American installations on Luzon from Formosa, and after emergency airfields previously built by the Philippine Army are seized at Vigan and Aparri, from Army air units that move to hurriedly expanded air strips there. Chennault conserves his fighters as much as he can, intercepting only those raids that can be detected on radar from Mariveles. The 17th, 74th and 75th Pursuit squadrons are down to 14 aircraft apiece by December 20 due to operational and combat losses, while the Japanese have bombed Corregidor several times, hit the airfields they already have hit numerous more times, but have as yet failed to locate the American airfields at Bataan.

The Philippine Coast Guard base at Aliminos in Lingayen Gulf is completely destroyed by a heavy raid on December 18 which levels the base, destroys the coast defense guns assigned there, inflicts serious casualties and also sinks or wrecks all of the vessels assigned to the base, either in port or while they attempt to maneuver including all of the Philippine Coast Guard Motor Torpedo Boats.

On December 19 Japanese minesweepers, escorted by destroyers, begin clearing Lingayan Gulf of American mines. Meanwhile American Catalina's spot a large fleet steaming toward the Lingayen Gulf, while poor weather has prevented American RB17Cs from spotting a smaller but still large fleet steaming toward Lamon Bay. By December 20 the Japanese will be in strike range of the remaining A24s of the 27th Bomb Group and B17s of the 19th Bomb Group have staged to Del Monte Field. However unknown to the Americans, a Japanese seaplane from Palau spotted the American bombers and watches them land at Del Monte. The Japanese have already moved their 23rd Flotilla from Formosa to Pelelieu and have 54 G4M Betty bombers and 36 Zero fighters available and within range of the American base. The bulk of the 21st Flotilla remains in Formosa but has orders to prepare for a move to Palau within days, but its remaining fighters (54) and bombers (60) will provide support for the landing at Lingayan Gulf and Lamon Bay until December 26.

American submarines fail
The Asiatic Fleet has 22 of its 28 remaining submarines on patrol between December 8 and December 21. They conduct 45 attacks and sink only 3 freighters, none of which were actually assigned to the approaching invasion force. The destruction of the bulk of available torpedoes at Cavite and heavy damage to all American naval bases in the islands has reduced support to only the single remaining submarine tender and Admiral Rockwell orders his submarines to operate from Java although until more torpedoes arrive they ability to inflict damage is limited.

In addition to technical failures, several commanders will be relieved for cause for personal failures as some officers simply are not aggressive enough or able to withstand the pressure of war time command.

For Eisenhower it is a serious disappointment as his first line of defense has completely failed. He has another card to play with the US Army Air Force however and has been waiting for the right time to hit back. That time has now come.

Air Battle of Luzon December 21, 1941
The Americans strike first on the morning of December 21. A raid of 25 B17D bombers of the 19th Bomb Group (6 of which have to abort for mechanical problems) take of from Del Monte with the mission of attacking and destroying the Japanese Army airfield at Aparri. Meanwhile the 23 remaining A24s of the 27th Bomb Wing take off from Bataan escorted by 36 P40B Warhawk fighters from the 24th Pursuit Group.

Meanwhile the Japanese Army has every available attack plane in the air hitting suspected American positions at the primary landing site around the port of Lingayen, while its bombers attack Fort Stotsenburg (which they suspect rightly to be the current headquarters of the USAFE) and fighters cover both. The Japanese Navy fighters from Formosa are overhead covering the Japanese fleet already landing troops, and 18 Zero fighters are on hand when the American dive bombers and fighters arrive. The American fighter pilots are able to keep the Japanese fighter cover away, downing 7 Zeros at the cost of 3 of their own, clearing the way for the A24s. Japanese flak is fierce but not as heavy as expected and the Americans manage to score several hits, with 5 transports hit but none are left sinking. But the Japanese troops suffer over 500 casualties, and several guns are lost as well. Japanese flak knocks 3 of the bombers down and several more are damaged.

The B17s are much more successful. They catch the Japanese Army completely by surprise, badly cratering the runway, destroying over a dozen aircraft that had been down for maintenance, and inflicting serious casualties to Japanese Army ground crews, effectively knocking the 16th Bomber Regiment out of action for two days.

However the B17s are spotted by a 18 Navy fighters that are flying to relief the combat air patrol over Lingayen Gulf and are attacked. The Japanese Zero fighters catch the American bombers by surprise, downing 3 of them and damaging 4 more sufficiently to cause them to make emergency landings at Clark Field, where they are caught by an afternoon raid by Japanese Army light bombers and destroyed. The Japanese also catch a RB17C flown by Captain Colin Kelly that has suffered an abort and is flying toward Clark Field. That officer wins the Distinguished Flying Cross by remaining with his aircrat until all of his crew manage to bail out at the cost of his life. That action and citation is misinterpreted by American reporters who send a story back to the United States reporting that he attacked and sank a Japanese battleship.

However the 19th Bomb Group is knocked out of action completely when they land at Del Monte Field and within an hour a massive raid by Japanese Navy bombers out of Pelelieu arrives and destroys all but one of them on the ground, along with several Beechcraft light transport planes and a DC3. The Army gets some revenge however as the 9 P40E Kittyhawks that remain flyable from the 3rd Pursuit squadron catches the Japanese on the way out, downing 7 of them before Zeros drive them away at the cost of 2 P40E and 1 Zero. That American victory is a hollow one as the 19th Bomb Group is effectively knocked out of action for weeks to come.

The Japanese Army meanwhile has finally learned the location of the American airfield at Mariveles thanks to excellent reconnaissance work by 4th Air Brigade. A force of 18 Lily Bombers escorted by 24 Nate Fighters hits Mariveles as the A24s are about to take off. Coming in low, the Army avoids radar detection (although the Army was actually trying to avoid ground observer detection) and Chennault is not able to scramble his fighters in time. Thus the Japanese Army inflicts devastating losses, destroying 13 of the A24s on the ground or as they take off and effectively ending the American strike before it can begin. The 24th Pursuit gets revenge, catching the Japanese Army aircraft as they depart the area and the American pilots slaughter the Nate fighters, who are as inferior to the P40 as the CW21 is to the Zero. A total of 15 of the Army fighters are shot down or crash on the way home at the cost of only 2 American fighters.

By evening the US Air Force Far East has lost permanently its ability to stop the Japanese. Another card Eisenhower has been counting on is gone.

 
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authors notes: While Japanese air losses have been heavier than they were historically they have still achieved their mission goals. The destruction of the two American bombing groups are based in part of similar incidents cited in the book "Ragged Rugged Warriors" (Martin Caidin) during the Japanese and Chinese air war over China 1937-40 as well as the historical destruction of much of Patwing 10 during the historical campaign in the Philippines.

The Japanese land based aircraft are being shifted for an upcoming campaign

After running through the wargaming element of story of the ground battle I am just about ready to write it
 
Japanese Invasion of Luzon December 21-26 1941 MAP
Japanese Invasion of Luzon December 21-26 1941.jpg
American / Filipino Dispositions in Blue, Japanese units and landing sites in Red
 
From Lingayen, the most likely route to Manila for the Japanese would be Filipino Highways 13, 3 and 5.

Hope the US forces can atvleast use delaying actions.
 
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