Eisen, Blut und Fernhandel -German Unification in the 1860s

Ridwan Asher

RavenMM said:
wow, that was a wondeful written first part and a very original POD. I've never heard of Schmoller before, but he spunds like a very interesting person... I have to research more about him :)

one very minor nitpick: "Ausuglaishu" would be the wrong transscription, IIRC, it should be something like "ausuguraihi"... that's the name of the japanese wikipedia article on the austrian-hungarian ausgleich.
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And I'm not sure they won't nativize the term, either. "Dakyou"(妥協) or "Setchuu"(折衷) would be more appropriate.
 

Jotun

Yeah, but ausuguraishu or however it is going to come out transliterated could well be used in the manner of "arubaiti", "enerugi", "ryukkusakku", "orugasumusu" :D or "karute" as it is going to be, ITTL as well as OTL, a specifically German word.
 

Beer

Banned
Hi, thanks and keep the coments coming!

@Julius Vogel
Interesting! That he is Austrian can become important, but on the austrian side von Biegeleben and von Rechberg will be more important for the TL.

@Jotun
The second french Empire already had deep problems before the Emser Depeche, which is one reason Paris was so eager for war. In this TL the french Empire will exist longer than OTL, but it will not see the 20th century.

@Jodmangel
To quote a song: Two out of three ain´t bad. The german unification ATL will be more peaceful, but it will be "just" one war less.

@Ridwan Asher
Dakyou would be quite perfect as well. But I felt that with the german states bringing the initial reason for the conciliation, they might take the loanword. That the ATL Japanese will call it the Dakyou Era in some texts is a given, as most eras anywhere have several names.
 
Jonathan Edelstein

Jonathan Edelstein

I'll join the chorus and say that the premise is amazing and I can't wait to see what you do with it.

I wonder if there will be a Meiji restoration at all in this timeline. The shogunate has just pulled off a huge political and economic coup - they've obtained very favorable terms of trade with the German states, and a rising European power has recognized them as an equal! This could give them the political capital to go ahead with their own reforms (the Tokugawas did want to reform during the 1860s) and cut down on the number of malcontents who want to use the Tenno as their figurehead.

Tokugawa Yoshinobu's quote in the original post talks of a great loss for his clan and family, which may mean that there was some kind of imperial restoration. But maybe not! Even a Tokugawa reform program would have to involve opening up the political system and economy to new players, which would mean that the shoguns are no longer absolute and that they will have to share their power and prestige. So the "loss" for the Tokugawas could simply be a more democratic (or at least more broadly oligarchic) shogunate. And Yoshinobu being shogun twice would seem to suggest that the office continues in some manner. I'll look forward to future installments.
 

Ridwan Asher

Beer said:
@Ridwan Asher
Dakyou would be quite perfect as well. But I felt that with the german states bringing the initial reason for the conciliation, they might take the loanword. That the ATL Japanese will call it the Dakyou Era in some texts is a given, as most eras anywhere have several names.
Click to expand...

They're not going to formally call it "Ausuguraihi" in national context, but it can be something of a fun informal nickname popularized by some pundits. As for german loanword in general, there will be naturally more of them in usage ITTL Japanese.
 

Ridwan Asher

Jonathan Edelstein said:
I'll join the chorus and say that the premise is amazing and I can't wait to see what you do with it.

I wonder if there will be a Meiji restoration at all in this timeline. The shogunate has just pulled off a huge political and economic coup - they've obtained very favorable terms of trade with the German states, and a rising European power has recognized them as an equal! This could give them the political capital to go ahead with their own reforms (the Tokugawas did want to reform during the 1860s) and cut down on the number of malcontents who want to use the Tenno as their figurehead.

Tokugawa Yoshinobu's quote in the original post talks of a great loss for his clan and family, which may mean that there was some kind of imperial restoration. But maybe not! Even a Tokugawa reform program would have to involve opening up the political system and economy to new players, which would mean that the shoguns are no longer absolute and that they will have to share their power and prestige. So the "loss" for the Tokugawas could simply be a more democratic (or at least more broadly oligarchic) shogunate. And Yoshinobu being shogun twice would seem to suggest that the office continues in some manner. I'll look forward to future installments.
Click to expand...

It seems that "Dakyou" here will mean reconciliation between Bakufu(as an institution) and the Imperial Court, so there is something or an Imperial Restoration of active role in the politics, but a more moderate kind that still keeps the Shogunate around, even if without Tokugawa family in charge.
 
Jonathan Edelstein

Jonathan Edelstein

Ridwan Asher said:
It seems that "Dakyou" here will mean reconciliation between Bakufu(as an institution) and the Imperial Court, so there is something or an Imperial Restoration of active role in the politics, but a more moderate kind that still keeps the Shogunate around, even if without Tokugawa family in charge.
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Mori Takachika becoming shogun would certainly suggest that the allies of the imperial house take power at some point, although it remains to be seen whether the Tenno will be leader or figurehead. Mori was also very anti-foreigner in OTL; it seems like he will moderate these views in TTL, although from the quote at the beginning, it might take him a while.
 

bm79

Wow, this is unique! I'll definitely be following this.

One point, though: you let slip that little tease about buying that northernmost island, but there's no further mention in the rest of the text. Are you really planning a Preußische Hokkaido?? :eek::cool: Was there any OTL interest in this idea, or are you just that crazy cool?
 

Hörnla

Beer said:
The german unification ATL will be more peaceful, but it will be "just" one war less.
Click to expand...

But that one war less is the hardest one and it brought that long-term diplomatic burden....... Would that also Butterfly the economic boom&crash of the 1870s away due to no reparations from France?

It will also be interesting to see which alternate defeat will show the French that they are not invincible.

I also wondered about Prussian Hokkaido. How would the British Masters of the Seas react?
And wouldn't there always be some faction in Japanese politics intent to wrestle the island into the Japanese realm.
 

RavenMM

Banned
Beer said:
My spoken Japanese is better than my written one. The "glai" should be a hint of a stronger loanword influence in ATL Japanese, but I am baffled at the "hi" ending you wrote. "shu" is possible in Japanese, esp. since often the "end-u" is not spoken.
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That's way more interesting than a simple mistake would be :eek:
I don't know why they spelled it with the -hi either, but for this I just trust wikipedia. And it fits with my understanding that sometimes you have to hear the spoken word to read the katakana word right...

But nevertheless, a Japan closer to the west is more interesting. I just see some problems to consiliate the fifty sounds/Gojuuon with a different romanization. But as I said, it's just a very minor nitpick ;)


The part about a german Hokkaido sounds very nice... I didn't even get it in my first reading. It seems that the best japanese Beer will still be from Hokkaido ;)
 

Jotun

bm79 said:
Wow, this is unique! I'll definitely be following this.

One point, though: you let slip that little tease about buying that northernmost island, but there's no further mention in the rest of the text. Are you really planning a Preußische Hokkaido?? :eek::cool: Was there any OTL interest in this idea, or are you just that crazy cool?
Click to expand...

FYI, Beer did play with the idea of a Prussian Hokkaido in his "Chrysanthemum" TL. If you manage to read past the inevitable screaming, pissing and moaning of the "Britannia rules the waves" fanboys, you'll see that this idea has roots in reality.
 

Beer

Banned
Hi out there!

Wonderful to see so many interesting comments, thank you all! Maybe I can get out a new part in the evening, but I cannot promise it.

@bm79
It is not that well known, but Max von Brandt was a big proponent OTL of taking or buying Hokkaido in the 1860s. He was one of those few Europeans who early saw that if you take colonies, you need those where your subjects might settle in easily. So no deserts or glazing heat a la Africa for Europeans.
In OTL it never came to that since the Unification took precedence and when Germany was finally united, Tokyo for the first time in centuries really had begun to develop Hokkaido. So the price, which in the early 1860s would have been rather cheap, had skyrocketed so much, that Bismarck stopped all advance into that direction. ATL the situation is different...

@Hörnla
Who says it is the third war (kind of) that is butterflied away? For those with intimate knowledge of the intra-german politics it is clear that 1866 might have been very different with just a few different events before. As a hint, if austrian foreign minister von Rechberg would have gotten the guarantees he wanted from Bismarck, the war would not have happened.
In ATL unlike OTL, Bismarck will have reasons to give von Rechberg these guarantees.
The British would not have done much about Hokkaido, no matter the moaning of the "Rule Britannia" pink glases. Many of them seem unable to read the UK´s own documents if it does not support their worldview. (rant off)
At that time, Japan was a side play, Germany would stay out of China, which the UK wanted and as long as India is not in danger, London would care less or not at all, what Germany does on an Island far from the Empire´s main possessions.

@Caoster, J. Edelstein, R. Asher
It is not only the Shogun who made a political/economical "Grand Slam", Prussia did as well. With some lines of ink on paper, the number of people in the Zollverein nearly doubled! At that time, the german states represented by the Eulenberg expedition had roughly 35 million citizens, Japan had a bit over 25 million. So after October 1860 ATL, the Zollverein had 60 million people. If you look at the total population of Earth in 1860, this is a MAJOR economic factor. Even accounting for the huge distance, the economic boost for the Zollverein states will be massive.
I do not want to spoil too much, so I just say that the ATL Shogun will be the equivalent to the OTL PM.
 

Richter von Manthofen

HMMMM - did you just say the war of 1866 will not happen TTL???

This will definitely have impacts further down the road. as the War of 1866 had a secondary theater: Italy. Will Austria keep Venetia? and if AUstria is not fighting 1866 - what about the Ausgleich? Is Austria even part of the coalition against France if Otls 1870 war happens. Or is Austria busy taking over Mexico from France ??? - OMG....Mexico part iof a future Central powers ... and as the Empress is of Belgian descent is Belgium inclined to side with the CPs this time...????
 

Beer

Banned
Hi!

@Richter von Manthofen
I think you know austrian history even better than me, but in this case: Do you know von Biegeleben and von Rechberg?
Von Biegeleben was strictly for an unification with Austria in the driver´s seat and anti-Prussian. It was his influence which brought 1866.
Von Rechberg saw the situation back then more clearly the von Biegeleben (and he had a good rapport with Bismarck). He had no problem with a Unification by Prussia, if Austria would get certain guarantees by the new Germany. Like a guarantee concerning Austria´s Italian possessions or a rather free hand in the Balkans. Von Rechberg had understood that Austria´s interests had developed away from those of most german states (most could not care less about the Balkan) and so would have big difficulties, if Vienna tried a unification.
OTL Bismarck for various reasons could not and would not give von Rechberg the guarantees he wished for. So von Biegeleben´s confrontational course prevailed.
Now ATL, the coming Germany´s most important far trade partner is Japan, which can be reached more comfortable via Suez Channel, the austrian Med ports and then railway to Germany. So what would a crafty guy like Bismarck do now? ;)

@Hörnla
It depends on when and how Prussia/Germany get Hokkaido. It is often overlooked that before the Meji-Time, Hokkaido could be on Mars for nearly all Japanese (the Tenno included). For centuries the ainu outnumbered the Japanese on the Island. It was only after Japan began her rise to Great Power status that Tokyo began to really invest in their northern main Island.
If Prussia/Germany buy it early (which is ATL a lot easier since the Germans arre the guys openly helping Japan)and develop the Island together with the Japanese (Bismarck OTL once made a remark about that due to the distance if we ever get Hokkaido, we have to develop it together with the Japanese) this will not be problematic.
 

ingemann

Banned
In 1864 the Danish king offered to join the German Confederation against keeping the duchies, in OTL the Germans was not interested, with a more activist global Germany, Prussia may show more interest, as Denmark had a bigger and superior navy to not only Prussia but also Austria. So Bismarck may take the offer against Denmark also joining Zollverein and a military alliance with Prussia.
 
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