Eine Veränderte Welt: A Changed World

Introduction
  • Eine Veränderte Welt: A Changed World (An Introduction)

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    Timeline of events:
    https://docs.google.com/document/d/...HC995R3NDQO-fCjTzkgH_9YvtGjzv3I8J-YTDqYOK/pub
     
    Cascadian Commonwealth Referendum of 1982
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    The Cascadian Commonwealth Referendum
    was held on 3 August, 1982. The referendum determined whether the Provisional Government of Cascadia would become a republic or join the British Royal Commonwealth entering with the status of a commonwealth. Following the Cascadian Emergency in which Cascadia, along with Canadian assistance, gained independence from the Pacific States following the independence referendum in the previous year.

    The Provisional Government was headed by Washington Governor Daniel J. Evans, who acted as Provisional President of the Provisional Congress. Following the war Cascadia was left economically isolated as even though the Pacific States, now the California Republic, officially recognized the independence of Cascadia in the Seattle Agreement (Signed 10 January, 1982), California would increase tariffs and make exports to the country more difficult to other countries that traded with Cascadia. Which resulted in a sluggish economy that could only rebound if trade with Canada was established. The Food Stamp Act and the Minimum Assistance Program would help the most affected citizens, but resentment against the government would increase. President Evans would soon entertain the idea of joining the British Royal Commonwealth to gain the benefits of free trade with neighbouring Canada and other Commonwealth members. The idea was thought to be impossible during the beginning months, buy increased riots made this drastic idea gain further traction.

    Bill Gates Sr, a representative from Seattle, was the first to propose the idea of joining the Commonwealth in March, 1982, although his proposal would be voted down. Bob Packwood, a representative from Oregon, was the main opposition leader to the idea of joining the Commonwealth, stating in a congress session, “It would be against the values and lives of those lost two hundred years ago, to just return to Britain after only a few weeks of hardship.”

    The Yakima Massacre on the 13 April resulted in the deaths of 13 people, after a man who had been unable to renew his Food Stamp held a grocery store hostage and killed 12 and himself once the police arrived on the scene. The massacre insisted chaos, with people fearing to go to any food outlet, resulting in more deaths from starvation, 207 would die this way by the end of April. Bill Gates Sr. was appointed Secretary of State on 22 April, and told to begin negotiations with Canada, the United Kingdom, and the rest of the Commonwealth to discuss a possible entry into the organization. The Vancouver (BC) Agreement was signed on 8 May, which stated that the only way for Cascadia to enter the British Royal Commonwealth would be through referendum.

    Debate in congress over whether Casacadia even had any legitimacy in joining an organization of former British colonial territories, but pro-commonwealth members mentioned the British joint occupation of Oregon Country with the United States, which encompassed all of Cascadia. After a month of debate and other legislation that were thought to relieve the economic problem, Congress voted 20-15 for holding referendum on 7 June. The final referendum date was to be held on the 3 August.

    Daniel J. Evans, Bill Gates Sr, Tom Foley, and Marguerite Ray would campaign for joining the Commonwealth. While Bob Packwood, Slade Gorton, and Mark Hatfield were against joining. The main case against joining was the idea of betrayal against republicanism of democracy, the future grasp of the British royalty, and the hopeful idea of finding another economic solution, such as a plain free trade agreement with Canada or the US. While the case for joining was economic stability with the second largest economy in the world (Canada), military defence, understanding the deals with the US were unlikely due to agreements with California, and Canada was unwilling to invest in an unstable and unreliable economy, unless they were firmly in their sphere of influence.

    Once the referendum was held, polls leading up to the day had the results to close to call, and were essentially even. Although most saw the republican side winning in most cases. Some were entertained and interested in the idea of royalty and monarchy, the economic stability joining the commonwealth would bring, as well as defence from California. While others opposed joining due to patriotic standards, total independence from unelectable power, and the belief that the current crisis could be resolved over time.

    When the results came in, the victory for the commonwealth came as a shock. Border regions with Canada voted mostly for the commonwealth, along with mainly urban areas, and southwestern Oregon which was hardest hit by the Californian invasion. While more rural and eastern portions of both states voted for becoming a republic.

    Cascadia would not officially join the commonwealth until 20 September. Bill Gates Sr. was selected as the first Governor-General the same day by Edward, Prince of Canada. The Federal Election would be held on the 26th, with a Conservative and Liberal coalition defeating the Republicans led by Packwood. With Daniel J. Evans serving as Prime Minister and with Albert L. Rasmussen serving as President of the Senate.

    The economy of Cascadia would see rapid improvement, now being able to export to the Commonwealth countries. Main exports being timber, crops, and later technological services mainly provided by Microsoft, headed by Bill Gates Sr’s son, Bill Gates Jr.
     
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    The Cascadian Federal Election, 2016
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    The Cascadian Federal Election of 2016
    was held on May 10, and was the second federal election to use the Mixed-Member Proportional, or MMP, system. This would be Bill Gates eighth federal election since becoming leader of the Liberal party, and sixth since becoming Prime Minister. While this was Bill Bryant's first federal election since defeating former Conservative Party leader Cathy McMorris Rodgers in a Leadership election in 2015. This would also be the first election in which the Green Party participated, due to voters believing that PM Gates had a lack of focus on the environment. Although seeing weakness with many progressives leaving the Liberal party to join the Greens, the Conservatives understood PM Gates high amount of popularity, which had further increased with his government's adoption of the MMP system 3 years ago as well as his trade agreements with California and Canada. Labor was once again hoping to become the leader of the Liberal-Labor coalition, but most of the party and leader Jeff Merkley knew that it was unlikely with the popularity of Bill Gates. The Republican party began to further go down in popularity due to growing support for PM Gates government and the Commonwealth itself. The results of the election was not surprising for most news outlets and party leaders, but the extent of Green party support was most unexpected. Bill Bryant's leadership was also in trouble by the more radical MPs, but interior chaos would settle down in the coming days. And although not needing the support, the Green party announced that it would join the Liberal-Labor coalition in an informal agreement, by voting for many of the bills proposed by the coalition. This was done as Gates would help the Greens with environmental bills if they helped his coalition, and some Green party leaders were also former close colleagues with PM Gates. The election would swell further support for Prime Minister Gates, while the Conservatives keep losing support leading to fracturing in the party. Gates would gain a sixth term as Prime Minister and and at most more 3 years to an already long 13 year term.
     
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    Federal Election: Poll Tracker 09/05/19
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    Data gathered from the Cascadian Federal Election Commission, open to the public. Presented by CNN, Cascadian News Network. IDS, Idaho State, is not represented (but counted in the poll) on National Polling to lead the government due to the party only running in the state of Idaho. PM Gates is expected to win an unprecedented seventh term, with the expected renewal of a coalition with Labor and the Greens. Bill Bryant is also expected to be challenged for party leader of the Conservatives if he is unable to form a government. In the Senate, similar results are to be seen, with President Ellen Rosenblum(LIB) expected to renew their coalition with Labor under Brad Owen.
     
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    Cascadian Federal Election, 2019 [Posted May 15, 2019]
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    The Cascadian Federal Election of 2019 was held on May 14, and was the third federal election to use the Mixed-Member Proportional, or MMP, system. This would be Bill Gates ninth federal election since becoming leader of the Liberal party, and seventh since becoming Prime Minister. Labor would elect a new leader of the party, Jennifer Williamson of Oregon, as this party and Deputy Minister. This was done after former leader, Jeff Merkley, was ousted in a party spill. Under Williamson, Labor would gain the status of third party from IDS, as well as remaining the junior Liberal-Labor-Green Coalition. After failing to gain seats in the election, Bill Bryant, is expected to be challenged by other high ups in a Conservative Party spill. IDS would also lower in popularity after more people have become accustomed to living in Cascadia, with more voters moving towards the Conservatives. Green would gain further popularity as well, due to greater knowledge of the worlds dire environmental problems. PM Gates has stated that environmental issues and tax increases would be important topics in his next administration. Gates would gain a seventh term as Prime Minister and at most 3 more years to an already long 16 year term, with speculation that he will not run for another term in the next federal election.
     
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    1982 Cascadian federal elections
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    The 1982 Cascadian federal elections were held on Tuesday, 7 September 1982 for the first round and Tuesday, 21 September 1982 for the second round. Independent candidate Mary Maxwell Gates would win the election for governor-general, defeating Republican Slade Gorton. While in the Senate and House elections a coalition would form between the Conservatives and Labor to gain control in both chambers as the Republicans won a plurality of seats in both. Two national referendums were held concerning Commonwealth admission and Constitution ratification, both with majority approval.

    Throughout the election campaign, the main question was over the British Royal Commonwealth and whether or not the newly independent Cascadia should join it. At the time the Commonwealth only consisted of nations that recognized the British monarch, Queen Elizabeth II, as their official head of state. There existed non-commonwealth realms in which these nations did not have Elizabeth II as their official head of state (for example India), but they were not members of the Commonwealth Open Market, a trade bloc of commonwealth realms that lowered trade barriers and made trade relatively easier.

    The Democrats had managed to nominally support the join campaign, seeing it as the fiscally valuable option for the weak and unstable economy that Cascadia was surviving. While the Conservatives and Labor had a neutral opinion, most of the leadership saw joining as the best option to solve the economic crisis. The Republicans on their part objected to joining, believing that after fighting for independence from the Pacific States they were about to give up their sovereignty to join an even more foreign power.

    In both houses the Conservatives and Labor would form a coalition to form a government, this would mark the first period of multi-partisanship in the country. Due to the necessity of a government for the country given the results of the federal election.
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    [a] Following the election the Conservatives and Labor entered a coalition to form a government, with the Conservatives as the senior partner.
     
    1982 Cascadian governor-general election
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    In the 1982 Cascadian governor-general election it was believed that the Republican, Slade Gorton, would win after the second round. He, along with Labor candidate Goldschmidt, was the only candidate that was unsupportive of Cascadia joining the British Royal Commonwealth, while Conservative Pritchard was indifferent and Democrat Schroeder supported joining on the basis of enabling Cascadia to enter the vast markets that Commonwealth members enjoyed.

    The four-way race among the major parties would be upended with the entrance of Mary Maxwell Gates, who with the push of King County politicians, local school boards, and PTAs was convinced to run on a basis of moderation between the left (represented by Labor and their perceived socialist leanings) and the right (by both Gorton and Pritchard). While moderates thought Schroeder was their candidate, she was thought as unable to gain support throughout Cascadia that Gates could, who was more widely known and could gain the support of voters in King County (the most populous county) away from Goldschmidt. Her moderate stance made Gates appeal to both conservatives and liberals, being able to gain the second most votes in the first round. Gorton appealed to most conservatives, while Gates’ moderate stance while also supporting many public welfare programs proved vital to gaining the support of Labor and Democratic voters.

    Gates supported joining the Commonwealth while Gorton under the Republicans opposed such a measure. In the end, her appeal as a moderate and willingness to work with conservatives made Gates win over Gorton in the second round, making her the first governor-general of Cascadia.
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    1982 Cascadian Senate elections
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    The 1982 Cascadian Senate elections were not as focussed on as the gubernatorial or the House elections. The division between the anti-republican parties resulted in the Republicans gaining a plurality of seats in the Senate, but not a majority. The Republicans had broad support from throughout the country, both from liberals in the urban areas and from conservatives in the rural areas. With this, they were expected to at least make it to the second round in most, if not all, of the races. Labor on the other hand was mainly concentrated in Washington, specifically King county and the surrounding Puget Sound, and the Portland metropolitan area. The Conservatives were able to attract rural voters and fiscally conservative voters in urban areas. While the Democrats also had broad support, not concentrated in a particular region or state, they weren’t as popular as the other parties and so weren’t able to advance to the second round except in two races.

    No party was able to achieve a majority, but the Republicans were able to win a plurality and so sought to gain a coalition with one of the other parties. Labor seemed like the most likely candidate given the nominal division within the party as many supported a republic, but the Labor senate leader Henry M. Jackson saw the Republicans as more of a broad right-wing party. They may share the goal of a republic, but their policies largely differed from that. The Conservatives won the second most seats and were more center-right and moderate, especially under their senate leader, Robert F. Smith. So as negotiations between the Republicans and Labor fell apart the idea of a Conservative and Labor coalition emerged. The Conservatives were willing to support modest social welfare programs in exchange to a lower tax rate to increase foreign business incentives to the entire country, something Labor was willing to budge on. Along with other deals, the Conservative-Labor coalition emerged in the Senate around the time it emerged in the House.

    Smith, as leader of the largest party in the coalition, would be elected the President of the Senate, the first person to hold the office. And unlike the House, the coalition would hold a majority in the Senate.
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    [a] Out of the Voting Age Population (VAP), blank and null ballots not included. Total of the votes from the first seat during this election as the highest turnout occurred in this seat.
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    1982 Cascadian House of Representative elections
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    The 1982 Cascadian House of Representative elections saw the opposition against the Republicans divided among the other three parties. The leaders of the Conservatives, Labor, and the Democrats supported Cascadia's entrance into the Commonwealth, while the Republicans did not.

    The Republicans were able to gain support throughout the country but were largely divided on other issues not related to the republican movement, with the party being mainly big-tent with center-right-leaning leaders. This perceived lack of government policy caused many voters to support the other major parties. The Conservatives, the center-right to moderate party, were seen as the second most popular party due to their advocacy of fiscal conservatism during the economic crisis, accusing Labor of possible out-of-control spending and the Republicans having no unified plan at all. Labor pushed for an expansion of the social welfare programs that the provisional government instituted since independence as a means of providing for the most vulnerable, paying for such programs with increased taxes and loans. The Democrats sought to be seen as an actual moderate party, willing to address both options and find a compromise in the hope of becoming a king-maker in any government formation.

    In the end, the Republicans won a plurality of 36 seats in the House, but not a majority. Both Labor and the Conservatives would win the same amount of seats, 18, with Labor winning more votes due to their support in urban areas. As in the Senate, Labor and the Conservatives would form a coalition government on the basis that the Republicans lacked any real plan for if they were to enter the office. Although both won the same amount of seats, Labor wanted the position of prime minister given that they won more of the popular vote. But even in a coalition, they lacked a majority, 36 in the coalition of 38 seat majority in the House, the Democrats’ 3 seats would provide a supply and confidence agreement on the basis that the Conservatives would be the senior coalition partner. Therefore Conservative leader Daniel J. Evans became prime minister, with Labor leader Mike Lowry serving as secretary of state. Both were the first to hold those positions.
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    [a] Out of the Voting Age Population (VAP).
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    [OLD] 1982 Cascadian federal election
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    The 1982 Cascadian federal election took place on 26 September 1982. A month prior, Cascadia held a referendum determining whether the country would join the British Royal Commonwealth. By a slim majority, the join side would win. The Republicans consolidated into one party, under Portland representative Bob Packwood. Although gaining the most seats, the Conservatives and Labor would form a coalition to attain a majority of seats against the Republicans. Conservative leader, Daniel J. Evans, who was the Interim President of the Cascadian Congress until the elections were called, was made the first Prime Minister in the coalition deal. With Labor leader, Mike Lowry, becoming the first Deputy Prime Minister. The Democrats became the moderate party in this election and through most of the early elections.

    With the Republicans in the Congress able to pressure members into calling for an election only two days after the commonwealth referendum, Evans agreed to change the election from November to late September.

    The "commonwealth question" was the biggest factor in the election, with the Republicans supporting a republic, the Conservatives and Labor supporting commonwealth status, while the Democrats didn't hold an official party-wide stance. Polling didn't have a realistic outlook due to the constantly changing support for a party throughout the campaign. Evans, as Interim President, was able to push through some transition legislation. Most notably passing the new flag, which included the Union Jack in the canton, similar to that of many other BRC nations. This quick action was used by the Republicans to call both the Conservatives and Labor as, "subjects to the Queen rather than to the Cascadians." Cascadia, having recently gained independence from the Pacific States after the Cascadian Emergency, had lacked a fully functioning economy. The Cascadian dollar had been brought into circulation in July, prior to that many citizens used American, Canadian, and even Pacific dollars. Even by election day, a plurality of people used the Canadian dollar for monetary transactions. Labor called for tax increases, especially on the newly growing tech sector in the Puget Sound, while both the Conservatives and Republicans advocated for a balanced budget and possible trade agreements with Canada and the United States to bolster the country's economy.

    The Republicans would see the seat count remain the same, with many now accepting the results of the commonwealth referendum or deciding to not vote either to boycott the election or not turning out to vote in general. No party gained enough seats to control a majority or uphold a confidence vote effectively. The Conservatives and Labor, believing that remaining in the commonwealth as the best chance to get into trade agreements with Canada and other BRC countries, formed a coalition of 40 seats to achieve a governing majority. The Democrats decided to not join the coalition, the vision of the party wasn't clearly laid out in the election. But party leader Jack Metcalf was able to gain the support of more moderate Labor voters to support his party.

    The Conservative-Labor Coalition collapsed after 2 years of policy disagreements. Throughout Evans's term, the coalition was shaky, Labor insisted on economic reforms to support the middle class and to fix the mass homeless problem in many major cities. With the Conservatives unwilling to budge with its expensive costs, the coalition would collapse, forcing Governor-General Bill Gates II to call for a new election in 1984.
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    1984 Cascadian federal election
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    The 1984 Cascadian federal election took place on 7 May 1984. The Conservatives, under Prime Minister Daniel J. Evans, were able to form a minority government. While Labor formed the Official Opposition. The Republicans lost a majority of their seats, as many liberal Republicans supported a Labor in hopes of a left-wing government entering into power and many Republicans believed the "commonwealth" question was answered in the referendum and in the 1982 election. With the commonwealth being supported in both situations. The Democrats would only win one seat, that of their leader Jack Metcalf.

    After the 1982 election, the Conservatives and Labor formed a coalition government to prevent the Republicans from entering power to make Cascadia a republic. Besides stopping the Republicans, the two parties didn't have much in common policy-wise. The Conservatives attempted to pass tax cuts on major businesses to convince them to remain and as a way support the largest source of income for the country. Whilst Labor hoped to keep or, in some instances, increase taxes on major companies as a way to increase the federal budget. Trade negotiations with the U.S. and Canada had been stalled, both nations believing the coalition was too unstable to work with. A major point of the trade agreements was the value of the Cascadian dollar, and which currency would it be pegged to? The American or Canadian dollar? U.S. President Clark Clifford was hesitant to trade with the Cascadians, preferring to trade with the more economically stable Pacific States. While the Canadians, under Prime Minister Erik Neilson, hoped to prevent the Americans from expanding economically into Cascadia.

    The election had been focused on the economy, homelessness, and jobs. Labor supported the formation of large scale social welfare programs and public works projects. The budget and cost of the programs and projects was the biggest attack the Conservatives had on Labors policies. The Republicans, consisting of many liberal anti-royalist socialists at this time, began to side with Labor in hopes of preventing a Conservative government.

    The results ended with the Conservatives forming a minority government, 2 seats short of a complete majority. This lack of a majority would prove disastrous for the Conservatives later in the year, as the Columbia nuclear disaster of 1984 led to inquires by both Labor and the Republicans, resulting in a no-confidence vote and the calling of the 1985 federal election.
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    2007 Idaho panhandle region status referendum
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    The 2007 Idaho panhandle region status referendum was a binding referendum held on 1 May 2007 in conjunction with the 2007 federal election, on the question of whether the counties that were occupied and integrated into Cascadia that were a part of the U.S. state of Lincoln be either absorbed into the newly created Cascadian states of Lincoln or Idaho. Voters decided to join the new Cascadian state of Lincoln.

    Following the referendum and under the State Admittance Act of 2007 the panhandle counties would be admitted along with other former Washington counties as the state of Lincoln on 1 December 2007 at the same time as the former U.S. state of Idaho.

    Background
    During the collapse of the United States, the Gates government decided to occupy the U.S. states of Idaho and the counties of the state of Lincoln that were west of the Rockies. This was largely due to the fear of famine and lack of government stability in those regions as the U.S. federal government at the time began to lose control over the states. With assistance requested by Idaho Governor Butch Otter and Lincoln governor Kathleen Sims, prime minister Gates with approval from governor-general Ron Sims ordered the Cascadian National Guard into the region on 3 March 2006.

    At first, both the U.S. government still under president Ron Paul and the recently declared independent Montana objected to the occupation. But both lacked the political or military power to effectively deter the Cascadians, the two would cease their formal complaint after the Spokane Agreement was reached later in 2006.

    After the occupation, the former state of Idaho would largely administrate itself, with protection, financial, and food assistance from the Cascadian federal government. But since the Lincoln counties weren’t under the administration of its former capital, Missoula, there were only the county and municipal governments that held any control in the panhandle. Thus the panhandle counties would be largely administered by the federal government, to the residents' disdain. Once the Spokane Agreement officialized Cascadia’s occupation and annexation of the region, federal plans to admit the region as states would begin.

    Since much of the country's founding, both Cascadian states of Washington and Oregon had secession movements from their eastern counties to form their own states, Lincoln and Jefferson respectively. Seeing the opportunity the Gates government planned to partition both states, admitting Jefferson, Lincoln, and Idaho as new states. But since the panhandle wasn’t economically viable as its own state both the federal government and the general public in the panhandle overall supported the region to join either Lincoln or Idaho. Thus the Gates government called for a federal election and a series of referendums for 2007, including a referendum determining which state the panhandle would join following their admittance.

    County Results
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    2019 Cascadian federal election (Wikipedia)
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    The 2019 Cascadian federal election took place on the 14 May 2019. The Liberals would go one to win their 7th consecutive election under party leader and Prime Minister Bill Gates, who has been serving as PM since 2003. The "Leftist Coalition" of the Liberals, Labor, and Greens would be renewed for this election, with the Liberals as head of the coalition and government. As for the Conservatives, there was a real risk that Labor could have more seats than them in this election, although this would not happen. As for party leader Bill Bryant, he would be defeated in a party leadership election the next year against Dino Rossi. The Republicans would continue to dwindle in popularity, focusing on getting votes throughout the country rather than in individual districts for this election cycle. While the Greens increased their vote share, even though a majority of Cascadian approved of Gates' policies on the environment, mostly younger voters believed he hadn't gone far enough to address the issue.

    Gates had remained a highly popular Prime Minister throughout his 6th term, never having gone below 50% approval in his approval ratings. The Conservatives would continue to struggle to maintain relevance in the increasingly liberal country. Bryant would attempt to pull in the more rural, non-urban, voters of both the Liberal and Labor parties. As well as discuss the shrinking forestry industry that had occurred under Gates' and the coalitions environmental policies. While Gates would promote the ever expanding tech sector in the Puget Sound, with Microsoft, Boeing, and Amazon continually employing more in the most populous region in the country. As for Labor, they elected Jennifer Williamson as their new party leader after their previous party leader, Frank Chopp, retired. Both the Republicans and the Greens sought to gain at least 2% of the vote, the minimum to gain seats in the House. The Idaho State Party (IDS) continued to advocate for Idaho rights after the occupation of the state by Cascadia in 2006.

    Polling clearly showed Gates and the coalition on track to win another election, how bad the Conservatives did on election night would determine Bryant's furtue as party leader. Not only did the coalition increase its seats among its members, but the Conservatives lost 6 seats, a dramatic shift to the coalition. Bryant would be challenged for the leadership in 2020 by Dino Rossi and Sherrie Sprenger as a result of his defeat, with Rossi winning the leadership election. While the coalition would soon begin talks to merge their parties into one, as done in Washington.

    Many close to Gates and outside speculation believe this may be Gates' last election and last term as Prime Minister.

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