Egyptian revolution becomes a bloodbath.

Vladimir

Banned
What if during the 2011 Egyptian revolution, Mubarak responded to the protests in the same way Assad and Gaddafi did? What if he ordered the army and police to massacre the protesters?

First off, I think that as with Libya and Syria, parts of the armed forces would join the side of the protesters, and a civil war-like situation would exist.

I am fairly confident that the West would think twice before intervening, as Egypt has a military trained and equipped by the West. Airstrikes and a no-fly zone would be incredibly risky, as Egypt possesses the world's fourth-largest F-16 fleet and US-supplied air defense equipment. A naval blockade and attacks from the sea might would be risky, as the Egyptian Navy has quite a few American-built frigates, along with some submarines and a substantial fleet of corvettes and missile boats.

Sanctions are almost a certainty, and there would be an international arrest warrants issued for Mubarak. I think that the Arab League would publicly condemn the violence, but Arab leaders might secretly support Mubarak, since the Arab Spring is still in its infancy, and a failed Egyptian revolt could serve as a deterrent to their own populations.

Thus, I think that the situation would unfold like the current situation in Syria. A state of civil war, repeated massacres of innocent protesters, and an outraged world imposing sanctions and talking tough, with no end in sight. The only answer I don't have is; what happens to the Arab Spring? Tunisia has already been successful and Ben Ali has stepped down despite the hundreds of casualties there, but Egypt is bogged down. Does the Arab street take the example of Tunis or Cairo?
 
There would be significant military defections if that occured, assuming Mubarak wasnt overthrown in a coup first.

If that happened, given the large size of Egypts population compared to neigbouring libya, there would be huge casualties on both sides, especially during urban combat in Cairo.

I doubt the west would intervene militarily, but they may try to convince other arab countries or the African Union to intervene.

As for arab spring, and in particular libya, this would be interesting, as the success of the Egyptian revolution galvonised Libyans to go out on February 17 and protest against Gaddafi.

Israels stance would certainly be intersting, although its quesitionable that they would attack Egypt outright, even when the country is devided by civil war.

What is certain is that the arab spring would be a lot more bloody...
 
Merryprankster had it correct, Mubarak Ordered the Army to attack and the Army refused and eventually joined the Protestors, thus resulting in the Police and the Pro-Mubarak militia's standing down
 
If Israel did intervene, it would most likely be to preserve Mubarak, especially if the rebels were islamists, particularly the Muslim Brotherhood.

How Syria and the other arab nations react to that is anyones guess
 
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