Egyptian Nuclear Weapons

[Windows95]

Ali Moustafa Mosharafa
He helped with the development of the theory of relativity, and got assassinated, I think.

So yeah.... you need Egyptian peace with Israel, in order for Egypt to get the nukes needed, recognition of Israel's existance, but not as a Jewish state. @ahmed1ghoneim

OR

You need an extreme POD in which Saad Zaghloul survives, and develops the economy on liberal lines where getting the nuke is inexpensive. @ahmed1ghoneim

 

[Noscoper]

He helped with the development of the theory of relativity, and got assassinated, I think.

Where did you see that ? Your link doesn't say anything about him getting assassinated.

 

[Windows95]

Where did you see that ? Your link doesn't say anything about him getting assassinated.

Oh... sorry. Well, I checked thru... stuff, but maybe he died naturally, or got assassinated.

The biggest problem when Egypt is trying to get nukes: Mysterious or accidental deaths from canyons or high rise apartments, or accidental suicides.

So you would need to construct a Dimona or a deep underground lab like Chayenne Mountain in the Siwa oasis, buried very deep under tunnelling where you gather all important scientists, rigorous checks for identification and high paid guards (maybe "former" Nazi ones after the war).

This post is not meant to advocate nukes, but this is a scenario if Egypt wants to get nukes. You would also need a hierarchy, procedures and protocols.

 

[Windows95]

Plus protection from airstrikes, poison gas and the variety.

Basically, Egyptian scientific and military institutions needed to be... restructured and rebuilt constantly from the ground up to adapt, along with a strong and robust economy. Self-sufficiency too.

 

[Noscoper]

but maybe he died naturally, or got assassinated.

I can't find anything provide a link to source claiming an assassination. Israel only did two assassination during the 1950s both of which involved minor military personal in 1956 using a Parcel bomb. 1960s the only assasination in an Arab country again used a parcel bomb but with factory workers.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Israeli_assassinations#1950s

 

[Windows95]

You also kinda need an military industrial complex independent from the USSR and the US.

Plus... a robust intelligent services trained by the Stasi, KGB and maybe the CIA.

I can't find anything provide a link to source claiming an assassination. Israel only did two assassination during the 1950s both of which involved military personal in 1956 using a Parcel bomb. 1960s the only assasination in an Arab country again used a parcel bomb but with factory workers.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Israeli_assassinations#1950s

I just assumed Egyptian geniuses and smarts were naturally assassinated by Israel.

They don't admit it, but they play dirty and kneecapped intellectual infrastructure and potential.

So Egypt must play at a game that Israel does, by what I said in the above, get intelligence services, enough to compete with Mossad which is high and tall order.

 

[Crowbar Six]

There’s other methods of obtaining nuclear weapons besides building them from scratch. Historically nobody’s bought weapons off the shelf but there’s also “borrowing” weapons which NATO has implemented to some degree.

Those are "Dual Key" arrangements. The weapons are stored on a US Air Base and would be released to NATO in very specific purposes.

As for the origin of fissionable material there are suggestions some of the Plutonium in Israeli weapon was "acquired" under questionable circumstances.

 

[DValdron]

If they acquire them before the Sinai situation is resolved, it might end up as a literal no-mans-land, it could be actually abandoned or internationalized.

The OP was acquiring between 1980 and 1990. The Sinai Situation got resolved in the late 70's under Carter, and Egypt entered the American orbit.

If Egypt got the bomb in the 1970's, then it's a far more volatile situation and outcomes might vary dramatically from year to year.

 

[Khanzeer]

Could the Egyptian Navy sneak a bomb close to an Israeli port like Haifa?
If Egypt bombed Israel, how would fall-out affect Jordan and Lebanon?

Foxtrots can carry a nuclear torpedo, it can strike a port city with it ?

 

[RamscoopRaider]

But Israel is not able to bomb the Iranian nuclear program.

That's because that program is mostly in parts of Iran 1500km away or more from Israel and would require violating some combination of Iraqi, Syrian, Lebanese, Turkish, Jordanian, and Saudi airspace in addition to Iranian. Given the distance they need tanking, especially given they can't fly high and straight but a low and twisty path, but without getting permission from someone to refuel, they can't do that, and none of that list is going to give the Israelis permission to do that

No part of Egypt is 1500km from Israel and Israel would only need to violate Egyptian airspace. Ergo the situation is much simpler, if the program is located close enough no tanking is needed, if not Egypt's geography is such Israel can do the tanking over international waters without needing anybody's permission/cooperation

 

[Petros >Peter Fergus<]

The OP was acquiring between 1980 and 1990. The Sinai Situation got resolved in the late 70's under Carter, and Egypt entered the American orbit.

If Egypt got the bomb in the 1970's, then it's a far more volatile situation and outcomes might vary dramatically from year to year.

Then we could be looking at a situation where Egypt and Israel tend to align more closely, in opposition to the Saudi's. They're all three in the American sphere of influence, but the fact that Egypt has nuclear weapons implies they're on a more even field with Israel in general, while the Saudi's might be forced out of their alignment with America.

 

[DValdron]

Then we could be looking at a situation where Egypt and Israel tend to align more closely, in opposition to the Saudi's. They're all three in the American sphere of influence, but the fact that Egypt has nuclear weapons implies they're on a more even field with Israel in general, while the Saudi's might be forced out of their alignment with America.

Or Egypt has more prestige and remains a more influential power in the Arab world, forcing the Saudi's into a narrower alignment, with less 'wildcarding.'

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Iran has supposedly been working on acquiring the bomb since the Shah's era, yet despite having a better educated population and vastly more developed industrial sector it still has yet to acquire one. Egypt developing nukes and delivery systems in the 80s is ASB.

 

[DValdron]

That's because that program is mostly in parts of Iran 1500km away or more from Israel and would require violating some combination of Iraqi, Syrian, Lebanese, Turkish, Jordanian, and Saudi airspace in addition to Iranian. Given the distance they need tanking, especially given they can't fly high and straight but a low and twisty path, but without getting permission from someone to refuel, they can't do that, and none of that list is going to give the Israelis permission to do that

No part of Egypt is 1500km from Israel and Israel would only need to violate Egyptian airspace. Ergo the situation is much simpler, if the program is located close enough no tanking is needed, if not Egypt's geography is such Israel can do the tanking over international waters without needing anybody's permission/cooperation

There's also engineering choices. The Iranian program is decentralized, with multiple redundancies and in hardened targets. While the Egyptians are closer and easier to reach they could well undertake similar measures to protect themselves. The Iraqi's were notably stupid about things. The Egyptians might not be.

 

[DValdron]

Iran has supposedly been working on acquiring the bomb since the Shah's era, yet despite having a better educated population and vastly more developed industrial sector it still has yet to acquire one. Egypt developing nukes and delivery systems in the 80s is ASB.

Which makes you wonder if they were actually trying, or if it was just scaremongering all this time. The North Koreans and the Pakistani's certainly got there.

 

[RamscoopRaider]

There's also engineering choices. The Iranian program is decentralized, with multiple redundancies and in hardened targets. While the Egyptians are closer and easier to reach they could well undertake similar measures to protect themselves. The Iraqi's were notably stupid about things. The Egyptians might not be.

Not really, Iran only had one active enrichment facility at a time, and only three large reactors. They are hardened, but you can't really decentralize reactors or centrifuge cascades. The rest of the process sure, but making the actual fissionable is centralized, it has to be. Egypt can harden them, but the first bunker busters were made in a month from old gun barrels.

 

[Khanzeer]

Also Israel knows quite correctly that iranian bomb is more for a deterrent against sunni arabs than Israel

 

[Windows95]

Is a MOAB a good alternative to nukes, maybe powered nukes also?

Or make Egypt a space nation and launch rods from space?

 

[Noscoper]

That's because that program is mostly in parts of Iran 1500km away or more from Israel and would require violating some combination of

Don't forget the high risk of sparking a regional war between Iran and United States and CO.

 

[RamscoopRaider]

Is a MOAB a good alternative to nukes, maybe powered nukes also?

Or make Egypt a space nation and launch rods from space?

It is not, the MOAB needs a modified transport to carry as it is too big for an acual strategic bomber, and just barely equals the tiniest of nukes

A rod from space is expensive and only gets about 10x its weight in TNT, to equal the tinest of nukes you need a 1-2 ton rod, to get something equal to Hiroshima you need a 1500 ton rod