Egypt as an industrialized power

[ETGalaxy]

During the reign of Muhammad Ali Pasha, Egypt interestingly began to undergo an Industrial Revolution, with factories being developed from the 1810s into the 1840s, at which point Egypt seemed to be on route to become an industrial power. This eventually stopped due to a number of factors, primarily, IMO, because of economic exploitation by European powers, but let’s assume that, for whatever reason, the issues that ultimately caused Egyptian industrialization to decline are butterflied away. Maybe the British and French relinquish their tariffs on Egyptian goods, maybe the Egyptians enact their own tariffs. How does Egypt develop as an industrial power?

While local resources meant that Egypt likely couldn’t become an extremely powerful industrialized state off of early 19th Century resources, once natural gas and solar power begin to develop, an independent and fully industrialized Egypt would be in a perfect position to adopt these energy sources before much of the world, not to mention that Egyptian industrialization began decades before the Scramble for Africa, so Egypt could plausibly build up a sphere of influence of independent African states well before colonialism swept over much of the region.

 

[M79]

Play the cards right and Egypt controls modern Sudan, Libya, Chad, and perhaps Tunisia and Algeria as well. From there it becomes a logical candidate to unite the Muslim world...

 

[stevej713]

This eventually stopped due to a number of factors, primarily, IMO, because of economic exploitation by European powers, but let’s assume that, for whatever reason, the issues that ultimately caused Egyptian industrialization to decline are butterflied away. Maybe the British and French relinquish their tariffs on Egyptian goods, maybe the Egyptians enact their own tariffs. How does Egypt develop as an industrial power?

It stopped because Egypt went into enormous debt and couldn't afford to continue. More industrialization would require more imports and loans from the West, which means more international interference.

 

[Belisarius II]

During the reign of Muhammad Ali Pasha, Egypt interestingly began to undergo an Industrial Revolution, with factories being developed from the 1810s into the 1840s, at which point Egypt seemed to be on route to become an industrial power. This eventually stopped due to a number of factors, primarily, IMO, because of economic exploitation by European powers, but let’s assume that, for whatever reason, the issues that ultimately caused Egyptian industrialization to decline are butterflied away. Maybe the British and French relinquish their tariffs on Egyptian goods, maybe the Egyptians enact their own tariffs. How does Egypt develop as an industrial power?

While local resources meant that Egypt likely couldn’t become an extremely powerful industrialized state off of early 19th Century resources, once natural gas and solar power begin to develop, an independent and fully industrialized Egypt would be in a perfect position to adopt these energy sources before much of the world, not to mention that Egyptian industrialization began decades before the Scramble for Africa, so Egypt could plausibly build up a sphere of influence of independent African states well before colonialism swept over much of the region.

Egyptian industrialization wasn't heavy industry, it was textiles. Egypt lacked significant deposits of Iron, which handy caped it from the Iron Age on. The disaster at Navarino clearly demonstrated that Egyptian forces couldn't compete with the forces of a major European Power. Egypt was still a nominal vassal of the Ottoman Empire, so they don't have a full range of independent action. There isn't much in the way of independent African States in the early 19th Century for Egypt to dominate. The decaying Barbary States were already targets of European powers. Early 19th Century Egypt was a large, but very poor, and backward nation, it was not a power on the verge of lift off as a major power.

 

[Vespasian]

There isn't much in the way of independent African States in the early 19th Century for Egypt to dominate.

Egypt attempted to conquer Ethiopia in the late 19th century, but was defeated. Perhaps this is past the POD for an industrialized Egypt. Perhaps Egypt could make an earlier attempt to conquer Ethiopia in that century.

 

[bpbruce]

A big rise in the Nile, lots more irrigation so food isn't a problem, and a chance to build bunch of dams in the delta for water power. Like the mills in our TL New England, new rich mill owners using cheap child labor, then using compulsory schooling to discipline their workers, and in a generation literacy in Egypt approaches 80% and a bunch of locals know how to use 1815 power tools.

 

[Belisarius II]

Egypt attempted to conquer Ethiopia in the late 19th century, but was defeated. Perhaps this is past the POD for an industrialized Egypt. Perhaps Egypt could make an earlier attempt to conquer Ethiopia in that century.

Interesting, I've never heard about this. When did this happen, and how did an Egyptian Army get there? By sea down the Red Sea, or by land through Sudan?

 

[oofo]

Interesting, I've never heard about this. When did this happen, and how did an Egyptian Army get there? By sea down the Red Sea, or by land through Sudan?

1875. The Khedivate controlled Massawa at the time. The Army was transported via the Red Sea and assembled at that port. The Egyptian Army was divided into three columns, one under Arendrup Bey, a former Danish officer, and one under Munzinger Bey, who was Swiss, and one under Muhammad Rauf Bey. Arendrup was to secure Adawa and the Mareb River Region, Munzinger, marching from Tadjoura in Djibouti, to take the Aussa, and Rauf towards Harar. The Egyptian navy commanded by Bey Henry F. McKillop, a former officer do the Royal Navy, was to capture the Somali coast. Egypt relied pretty much entirely on foreign mercenaries for its officer Corp. at lot of the army were European mercenaries as well.

Arendrup and Munzinger (as well as his wife and child) would be killed and their invasions failed. Rauf was more successful and Egypt controlled Harar for 9 years. McKillop was also successful and established garrisons at Mogadishu and ports south of it. Diplomatic pressure quickly forced the Egyptians to relinquish the Somali coast south of Ras Hafun though. Egypt controlled the coast north of it until 1884 as well.

 

[Ameck16]

What set back Egypt was the Treaty of Balta Liman between the British and Ottomans, since Egypt was an Ottoman possession they were effected. This trade treaty which was one-sided opened up the still infant Egyptian economy to British competition. This meant that the factories built by Mohammed Ali became less profitable, but still, it was manageable as unprofitable factories and businesses were all unified under a handful of state-owned or back monopolies until Abbas I. The man abolished trade monopolies, closed factories and reduced the regional armies to 9k men. This caused a recession due to the largest customer of industrial goods the military evaporated, which led to British companies either crushing the now patronless monopolies and buying the cheap factories after their collapse.

Avoid the treaty by having it be not one-sided or Egypt refusing to enforce it in their territory, or avoid the abolishment of the trade monopolies. And you'll have a moderate industrial power in the Mediterranean.

 

[Bad@logic]

Egypt's industrialization isn't really in the sense we think of it in European terms, with private industry and private profits, but as a state-directed command economy with massive state intervention and control which mobilized resources for state-mandated projects. I would think it as more equivalent to the Soviet Union than to Britain or France - able through massive state mobilization of resources to carry out some degree of industrialization, but not competitive internationally except through the export of raw materials. Using the Nile for water power seems unlikely for me given how slow it is and how much silt it produces, and of course importing coal is extremely expensive. While it seems likely to me that Egypt's economy could be guarded at a better level than OTL, it also seems to have a lot of structural factors working at it moving to any intensive development, and just like the USSR, the problem with that sort of state directed economy is that when will at the top fails, it all comes crashing down.