Effects on race relations in a CSA-wins scenario

Say the POD being Lee's trek up north going well and the US gets humiliated (though not broken). How would a vengeance-seeking US respond to free blacks and refugees fleeing up north?
 
Say the POD being Lee's trek up north going well and the US gets humiliated (though not broken). How would a vengeance-seeking US respond to free blacks and refugees fleeing up north?

In New England I can imagine blacks getting full rights, however in places like Missouri, Indiana or Nebraska...not so much.

Blacks in the US are going to be seen alongside the Republicans as the reason why the country broke in half, and are not going to be seen all that positively for awhile.

The US is still going to take to Westward Expansion and attempting to exterminate the Sioux and other plains indians, but since the Indian Territory ended up in the CSA, there may just be a larger flight of tribes like the Osage to the CSA.

In the CSA (if they have Kentucky), the Ohio River is going to be the target for runaway slaves.

Once slavery gradually disappears from the CSA over the next 50-60 years I suspect that a form of peonage and serfdom is going to replace the old slave system in the Confederacy. Some states being stricter than others. When it comes to political rights, blacks in the CSA are going to have very few, but, Jim Crow as we know it has been butterflied away. And with this *Segregation in the CSA, some states are going to be stricter than others. Because I can imagine that a Louisiana with a robust and important New Orleans is going to be much more liberal than Arkansas, Mississippi and parts of Tennessee.

If the CSA is able to get Arizona or any Mexican states like Sonora, Chihuahua and Sierra Leon (and nothing else), the Confederates are going to have to deal with the Apaches. I had a discussion about this with robertp6165 before he passed. The Texan one-time governor of Confederate Arizona, John Baylor, issued an extermination order of all the Apaches in the region, I can suspect that Texas is going to take this to heart, and include the Comanches in this extermination order. Other tribes in Arizona, for instance, the Pima and Papago tribes are going to be left alone, and possibly used as proxies against the Apaches.

The Indian Territory (Oklahoma) was mostly Confederate during the War and remained largely in CS hands until 2 months after Lee surrendered. And since this is an 1862-1863 victory, the only place the Union really holds is Tallequah, the Capitol of the Cherokee Nation at the time. The 5-Civilized Tribes, the Cherokee, Choctaw, Chickasaw, Seminole and Creek Nations all signed alliance treaties with the CSA and fought for the CSA in it's war of independence, alongside that, they were given representation in the Confederate Congress. Richmond is going to look very favorably upon that, the Indian Nations may most likely become an All-Indian Confederate state, Sequoyah will probably be it's name, so Turtledove got that right.
 
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Wolfpaw

Banned
An anti-slavery amendment in the US will likely come sometime in the late 1870s. Blacks will be disliked in most of the country, but New England will likely be best for them. The Upper Midwest is promising as well since Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota didn't have the largely ambivalent Appalachian majorities that the Lower Midwest had to contend with. Blacks are likely to attract blame for the sundering war, so more might try to strike out West to homestead.

There will of course be black urban communities, but I expect them to be smaller. I would also wager that there would develop human trafficking/kidnapping-into-slavery rings within the Union and Caribbean. This ties in with the probability of Confederate ships harrying Cuba and especially Haiti. All but the most reckless would probably spare Barbados and the Bahamas or any Anglo-French possessions, but I could see some occasional harassment of Danish and Dutch islands.

Slavery will continue until the Confederate constitution is reformed or (much more likely) the system collapses under its own internal contradictions to revolution. I do not see it dying out for quite some time and lasting into the 20th century since it is socially, politically, and economically--as CS Vice President Alexander Stephens aptly put--the cornerstone of the Confederacy.

For this reason, the major question is whether solidarity--or rather, enough solidarity--between Confederate blacks and poor whites can be attained to overthrow the junta-plantocracy that runs the Confederacy.
 
The black population of the USA will be relatively small, and will end up concentrating in the upper midwest and New England (at least in the first decades after the war) as those areas were the most accepting of the black population. I expect you'll see something like the homestead act and some blacks may decide to go west to take advantage of that. While escaped slaves or free blacks going north as their situation becomes untenable in the CSA (by the CW things had been getting worse legally for free blacks in the south), they won't be sent back - they'll end up going to the areas where they are "welcomed" as above, or passed through to Canada. No way the USA will send escaped slaves back over an international border to the CSA.

The northern response to a loss of the CW will be an increased military (and navy) and because of its greater population, greater industry, and a more pro-development philosophy the CSA will not be in a position to go to war to get slaves back - even a CSA aligned with the UK & France won't get alliance help to get slaves back.

In the CSA slavery will eventually die..but very slowly. Peonage and de jure legal "lower" status will be prevalent, no political rights, segregation, passbooks, blacks can't testify against whites in court etc etc.
 

Free Lancer

Banned
In the term of settlement they will most likely be concentrated in New England to the upper midwest, expect a homestead act or something similar to it in nature in reaction to what will most likely be a mass wave of black free or slaves making there way north in what i would imagine post war confusion.

As the nature of the wars end will play a major part in how they are treated and in this regard it did not end well for the US, expect escaped slave in the US to be a source of major friction between the US and the CSA in the US refusal to even discuss the idea of returning them.

Official CSA US relations will be on the level of the Soviet Union US cold war with a build up of the army and navy in the US followed by the CSA.
 
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