Effects on CS Victory on Canadian confederation

frlmerrin

Banned
What an excellent subject for discussion.

I think it hinges on three factors, what the CSA looks like at the time of independence, how it got there and how the USA regards relations with the British Empire and BNA in particular as a result of CSA independence.

Would you care to fill in some detail to encourage debate?
 
All six colonies in BNA would probably join up right at the start, instead of the three that did OTL. Reason being the only way for CSA to win their freedom is through British support, which would turn the US (and their large war machine) very hostile towards the British holdings on the continent. Newfoundland and PEI and BC will still have their reservations, which they would likely work out in Parliament over the first few decades.

I doubt the federal structure would be any less centralised than OTL. Given that the whole reason for a powerful Ottawa was the evident failures of the more decentralised US model, and that becomes all the more obvious after it has split in two. Whether it still devolves into the highly decentralised state we have today, I don't know. It seems probable, as a federation as vast as Canada needs to be decentralised or it would eventually fall apart.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
A more unsettled North America might conceivably promote a closer union among the Canadian Provinces but might also encourage the maintenance of close ties with Britain for reasons of defense.
 
I WAS going to say confederation doesnt happen at all, but it depends SO very much on WHY the CSA succeeds.
1) If its a peaceful separation, no war, then the Union wont have a huge army sitting around with nothing to do, and theres no confed, as was my first thought.
2) if there is a war, and it involves British support for the CSA, then as Heisenberg points out, the colonies will have federation imposed on them. Mind you, i really cant see the uk declaring war on the union to support a slavocracy. It would likely require the us being suicidal enough to open a two front war, which imo Lincoln wasnt stupid enough to do. This might reqire Seward being president, or one of the other fireeaters.
3) if there is a war and the CSA doesnt so much win, as the Union gives up, a low probability outcome, again much would depend on HOW the Union gives up.

So theres lots of valid options, depending on HOW the csa wins.
 
If the colonies are pushed together due to an American threat, I think the senate would be a lot different that OTL. I can see British Columbia, the Maritimes and Newfoundland all pushing for senators appointed by the provincial government to avoid central Canadian domination.
 

Kaptin Kurk

Banned
Just weighing the probabilities, the CSA most likely wins independence through a Union capitulation / loss of will to fight than a British intervention. How that plays out in Canada, I'm not sure. Although, I suspect it might embolden any Canadian secessionist movements, and be a black mark against centralized government to have the USA go down that way.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
Just weighing the probabilities, the CSA most likely wins independence through a Union capitulation / loss of will to fight than a British intervention. How that plays out in Canada, I'm not sure. Although, I suspect it might embolden any Canadian secessionist movements, and be a black mark against centralized government to have the USA go down that way.
I think rather the opposite. With an independent CSA, the geopolitical situation in North America will be more unsettled than IOTL. This will prompt both calls for a stronger, more united Canada AND maintenance of strong ties with the mother country in order to hedge their bets against instability.
 
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