Effects of the Ottoman Empire joining the allies during world war 1

[Germaniac]

Before the war, yes. There's always the possibility that the Ottomans renege

I was referring to the treaty with the Germans they signed the beginning of August. The Ottomans agreed to go to war only if Bulgaria did as well

The bizarre is open and people are bidding on the Ottomans, Italians, Bulgarians, Greeks, Romanians and Swedes as well. Who goes which way is important

The Russians won't let Bulgaria have the straits but the Germans might

Very complicated game. An offer only counts if you win and your allies honor it. What the other neutrals are thinking is a big part of the puzzle

The Ottomans went to war before the Bulgarians, and what I was saying was there was nothing in the treaty regarding Bulgaria. Bulgaria was unwilling to enter the war until it wrapped up a treaty with the Ottomans.

 

[Aphrodite]

The Ottomans went to war before the Bulgarians, and what I was saying was there was nothing in the treaty regarding Bulgaria. Bulgaria was unwilling to enter the war until it wrapped up a treaty with the Ottomans.

True- but the August agreement called for the Turks to join only after the Bulgarians. The Ottomans are keeping their options open and are in no hurry to join the Germans A careful reading of the Ottoman treaty is that they promised the Germans nothing It says 'if the Germans are forced to declare war in defense of Austria" yet the Germans had already declared war, the Ottomans offered to turn over the Dreadnaughts building in Britain- even though they knew they had already been seized. the Turks and Bulgarians do sign a neutrality pact in August but the Turks still won't join the war until November.

That's a lot of foot dragging and plenty of time for them to change course

 

[History Learner]

Russia might be knocked out in 1915:

January 27, 1915.

Great Britain arranged a loan of five million pounds to Romania.

March 13, 1915

British offensive defeated at Neuve Chappelle (France).

March 18, 1915

Treaty of London was signed between Great Britain, France and Russia. Russia was ceded the right to annex Constantinople, the Bosporus, the Dardanelles, and more than one half of Turkey-in-Europe.

April 5, 1915

French offensive to capture the Woevre defeated.

April 1915.

German army conducts a successful spoiling offensive at Artois.

April 12, 1915

In Russia, an explosion destroyed the large Okhta Munitions Factory east of Petrograd, which seriously affected munitions supply for the army.

May 2, 1915.

Beginning of Gorlice-Tarnow offensive.

May 8, 1915.

German army captures the key Baltic port of Libau.

May 9 – June 16, 1915

French army defeated at Artois.

May 23, 1915.

Italy joins Entente. Very bad timing (for Italy) as Austro-German offensive against Russia is just starting to show results. However this does tie about 10 Hapsburg divisions to the Isonzo.

June 2, 1915

At Petrograd, French Ambassador Paleologue met with munitions multi-millionaire Putilov, who informed him that the days of Tsarism were numbered; that revolution is inevitable; the munitions problem was not merely a technical problem, the question of labor and output had to be solved; and the whole administrative system of Russia must be reformed from top to bottom.

June 3, 1915

Fortress of Przemysl recaptured by Gen. Mackensen’s forces.

June 9 – 11, 1915

Moscow erupted in three days of anti-German rioting and violence. Four hundred seventy five German-owned businesses and 207 private homes were destroyed. Over six hundred people were injured before order was finally restored. Rumors of treason circulated among the people, accusations were openly made against the Tsar, the Empress, Rasputin and members of the court. The mob in Moscow demanded that the Empress be shut away in a convent, the Tsar to be deposed, Rasputin to be hanged, with Grand Duke Nikolai Nikoleavich to be crowned as Tsar Nikolai III.

June 20 – September 27, 1915.

German army seizes the Argonne. Strategically significant as it wrecks French chances for an offensive in Champagne.

June 22, 1915

Austro-German forces recapture Lemberg. This is a major Ost Front fortress.

June 30, 1915

In Petrograd, the new War Minister General Polivanov warned his colleagues that within the Russian Army “demoralization, surrender and desertions are assuming huge proportions.”

July 20, 1915

At Petrograd, Russian Army Chief of Staff General Belyaev pleaded with French Ambassador Paleologue to urgently request that France supply them with rifles. Belyaev informed him that they needed one and a half million rifles to wipe out the present deficit. Currently Russian factories are turning out only 60,000 per month, which they hoped to increase to 150,000 in October

Summer 1915. German diplomatic negotiations with Romania.

Unlike Italy, Romania had the sense not to join the Entente when they were losing. As Austro-German victories continued to pile up Romania resumed normal trade with Central Powers with one notable exception.

Romania would not allow ammunition shipments from Germany to Constantinople to transit Romanian territory. Ultimately this had strategic consequences. Germany felt compelled to conquer Serbia in order to open a rail line to Constantinople. Fall 1915 invasion of Serbia effectively ended chances to finish off Russia just as they were on the verge of cracking. German chances for victorious conclusion of WWI slipped away forever.

Point of Departure. German Government sweetens the pot.

Historical Germany offered Bessarabia to Romania.

In a rare moment of common sense Kaiser Wilhelm II recognizes that Germany has a chance for outright victory during 1915. Not the time for cautious diplomacy. In the event of German victory Romania will also receive Odessa, the most important Russian Black Sea port. In return Romania will allow discrete German delivery of munitions to Constantinople.

Fall 1915. Death of Imperial Russia.

Rather then being diverted to Serbia, Army Group Mackensen (fall 1915 Heer schwerpunkt) drives to Pskov and then to outskirts of St. Petersburg. That city was WWI Russia’s most important munitions production center.

When Germany cuts rail lines entering St. Petersburg from south it effectively ends munitions production in that city just as happened historically during 1941. But unlike WWII, WWI era Russia doesn’t have large scale alternate production centers in Ukraine and Urals. Russian Government sues for peace on whatever terms they can get from Germany. Followed by an internal power struggle. It’s a safe bet weakling Czar Nicholas II will not remain in power.

 

[Nurhaci]

Only thing Entente need is open Strait.

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

IMO, Allied victory by 1917 at the latest, probably in mid-1916.

If Turkey joins the Entente instead of the CP in late 1914...

The Straits are open to Russian commerce, which greatly improves Russia's economy.

Allied arms aid can get to Russia conveniently, not by way of Vladivostok or Murmansk/Archangel.

Russia doesn't have to fight in the Caucasus or send troops into Iran, which means substantially more resources for fighting Germany and Austria.

Britain doesn't have to fight in Palestine and Mesopotamia.

No Gallipoli campaign.

Bulgaria remains neutral.

Serbia is not attacked in flank by Bulgaria, and very probably a substantial British/Imperial army comes to Serbia via Salonika (i.e. all the troops committed to Gallipoli and the Near East). Thus Serbia continues to hold off Austria.

Italy would join the Entente about as OTL.

Romania would join the Entente much earlier than OTL.

So there is much greater pressure on Austria-Hungary, which falls.

No Russia Revolution, maybe, and very likely no Bolsheviik Revolution.

Most likely, no Armenian massacres.

The Ottoman Empire remains intact; no Arab Revolt. No Balfour Declaration.

 

[Byzantine fanatic]

I don't know if the allies are willing to accept the Ottomans. One thing sure is that Bulgaria remains neutral or joins the Entente (the latter depends on what Romania will do) if the Ottomans joined the Entente.

There isn't much to gain other than regaining Cyprus, Kuwait and just maybe... Kars. But that's it.

Well, the Ottomans also gain:

1. Not losing their entire territory to the Allies
2. Prestige of winning the war
3. No war of independence in the 1920s

Compared to OTL, even just keeping their 1914 borders unchanged would be a huge win.

Plus if they can extract some benefits from the Entente in exchange for entering the war, maybe some money or the British provide some modern battleships for the Ottoman navy.

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

Plus if they can extract some benefits from the Entente in exchange for entering the war, maybe some money or the British provide some modern battleships for the Ottoman navy.

Maybe Britain would rescind its takeover of Agincourt and Erin, with the understanding that Turkey would commit them to the blockade of Austria-Hungary.

(weird thought; with Turkey on the Entente side, the Mediterranean becomes an Entente lake except for the Adriatic. Russia's Black Sea Fleet can come out and join the other Allies. With France, Italy, Russia, and (see above) Turkey on side, the Allies have more ships than they can possibly use in the Med. Maybe some of those ships move to the Atlantic to fight the Germans there, perhaps in association with Britain's Grand Fleet.)

 

[Byzantine fanatic]

Maybe Britain would rescind its takeover of Agincourt and Erin, with the understanding that Turkey would commit them to the blockade of Austria-Hungary.

(weird thought; with Turkey on the Entente side, the Mediterranean becomes an Entente lake except for the Adriatic. Russia's Black Sea Fleet can come out and join the other Allies. With France, Italy, Russia, and (see above) Turkey on side, the Allies have more ships than they can possibly use in the Med. Maybe some of those ships move to the Atlantic to fight the Germans there, perhaps in association with Britain's Grand Fleet.)

Also with total Entente control of the sea, perhaps the Central Powers would recognise their situation is even more hopeless and the war might end sooner?