Effects of the ERE maintaining control of Egypt and Syria?

[Huehuecoyotl]

For whatever reason, Islam gets beaten back at Yarmouk/decides not to attack the Romans/gets butterflied away via Aksumite elephants. Syria, Palestine, and Egypt remain provinces of the Empire.

What are the demographic and cultural effects from the lack of Islamic invasions and the subsequent immigration of Arabs into these regions?

Will the Copts eventually try to strike off on their own, or were they generally content with Imperial rule?

 

[Rex Mundi]

For whatever reason, Islam gets beaten back at Yarmouk/decides not to attack the Romans/gets butterflied away via Aksumite elephants. Syria, Palestine, and Egypt remain provinces of the Empire.

What are the demographic and cultural effects from the lack of Islamic invasions and the subsequent immigration of Arabs into these regions?

Will the Copts eventually try to strike off on their own, or were they generally content with Imperial rule?

This isn't my area of expertise, but I vaguely remember some course in Middle Eastern history where we were taught that dissatisfaction with the Empire in Egypt helped Islam gain ground there.

 

[Malta]

The ERE certainly would be able to maintain its position as unrivaled naval power in the Med.

 

[Leonidas391]

For whatever reason, Islam gets beaten back at Yarmouk/decides not to attack the Romans/gets butterflied away via Aksumite elephants. Syria, Palestine, and Egypt remain provinces of the Empire.

What are the demographic and cultural effects from the lack of Islamic invasions and the subsequent immigration of Arabs into these regions?

Will the Copts eventually try to strike off on their own, or were they generally content with Imperial rule?

I would assume that the population around the Levant would remain mostly Christian, and that the prevention of a Near Eastern Islamic empire might alter Islam to give women a more socially-advantageous position than they had after several centuries of Umayyad and Abbasid rule. Islam would start concentrating in Arabia, developing into a strong kingdom on the sidelines between the two superpowers (ERE and the Sassanid Persians).

But as for the Coptic question, they probably would result due to tensions with the patriarch in Constantinople. Problem is, I think that this would occur about a century or two after the Arab defeat at Yarmouk due to a lack of overall organization or a direct threat from the emperor, giving the empire enough time to recover from the wars with the Persians and deal with the threat effectively. Yet the ERE could return to attacking Persia, giving the Copts leeway to rebel successfully without facing the full brunt of the Byzantine Empire.

 

[PhilippeO]

the religious effect on Byzantine population will be huge

Iconoclasm might be even more popular in Egypt and Syria, giving supporter of Iconoclasm a lot of bishops and loyal supporter.

Survival of Antioch and Alexandria would also give Constantinople patriarch rival, who could support different policies and give refugee to dissenting monks.

control of Syria and Egypt will triple the religious problem Byzantine have.

 

[nomisma]

the religious effect on Byzantine population will be huge

Iconoclasm might be even more popular in Egypt and Syria, giving supporter of Iconoclasm a lot of bishops and loyal supporter.

Maybe there is no Iconoclasm at all. Iconoclasm in OTL is the reaction to the Muslim conquest of the large part of the empire.

 

[Julius Vogel]

the religious effect on Byzantine population will be huge

Iconoclasm might be even more popular in Egypt and Syria, giving supporter of Iconoclasm a lot of bishops and loyal supporter.

Survival of Antioch and Alexandria would also give Constantinople patriarch rival, who could support different policies and give refugee to dissenting monks.

control of Syria and Egypt will triple the religious problem Byzantine have.

Yah, an enduring multipolar Eastern Christianity could result in a very different development of all sorts of things. Would be interesting to see how that transmitted Westwards

 

[Athelstane]

Lots of butterflies...

One worth noting: the loss of Egyptian grain by the 640's was an economic blow from which the city of Constantinople never fully recovered. The city will be larger and more vigorous in a world in which it retains Egypt as a granary and funding source.

 

[Grey Wolf]

I don't know the answer to this question, but did the Arabs defeat/destroy any nascent power that could have risen up to create problems for the ERE?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[Tongera]

Lots of butterflies...

One worth noting: the loss of Egyptian grain by the 640's was an economic blow from which the city of Constantinople never fully recovered. The city will be larger and more vigorous in a world in which it retains Egypt as a granary and funding source.

I wonder the extent of how much Constantinople can grow where Egypt can be retained?

I don't know the answer to this question, but did the Arabs defeat/destroy any nascent power that could have risen up to create problems for the ERE?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

There was the Sassanian Persians. They are all that comes to mind right now.

 

[RPW@Cy]

I don't know the answer to this question, but did the Arabs defeat/destroy any nascent power that could have risen up to create problems for the ERE?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

Visigothic Spain, perhaps. It's possible to imagine them starting to eye up the Empire's territories in the western Med (Mauretania, the Balearics, Sardinia, even Sicily and Africa if they do well enough) at some point if they can get themselves organised at home.

 

[Athelstane]

I don't know the answer to this question, but did the Arabs defeat/destroy any nascent power that could have risen up to create problems for the ERE?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

The most obvious answer is the Sassanids.

They'd taken a severe blow in the final war with Heraclius, but within a generation or two, they could have become a strategic threat once again.

Now, that may not be in the POD in this thread. Perhaps we're assuming that the Arabs knock them out. But that's the greatest power that the Arab invasions destroyed.

 

[Blackfox5]

This has huge effects. The Byzantines will probably hold onto Syria indefinitely. Egypt will see disturbances as the local Coptic Church has problems with Orthodox Christianity, but native Egyptians willing to rebel against Constantinople would be rare. Byzantium will probably hold onto Egypt for a long time, but there is a chance that at some point Egypt will become independent. In the end though, a professional Roman army is going to defeat any local Egyptian rebels. The province is too wealthy for Constantinople to let go.

There were plenty of Arabs already living in Syria and Egypt, but they were a minority. Without an Arabic conqueror ruling those lands with a holy text in Arabic requiring knowledge of Arabic as an entrance into the elite, the Arabic language will never take hold. The local languages and Greek will remain dominant. Arab immigration from the sparesely inhabited Hedjaz and Arabian desert will never be enough to change demographics, and the local population will never have a reason to identify as Arabs.

 

[Yelnoc]

Islam would start concentrating in Arabia, developing into a strong kingdom on the sidelines between the two superpowers (ERE and the Sassanid Persians).

The invasions in the 630s were essentially religious crusades. If the muslim armies are beaten back in all directions, I cannot see Muhammad's followers retaining control of Arabia. Remember, Muhammad was not the only holy man with a following around this time, and while most of them were crushed in the wars on the peninsula before Muhammad's death, there is still plenty of room for Islam to be a forgotten religion, like Manicheaism.

 

[MNP]

How can any kingdom in the pre-oil age be strong if it's centered on Arabia? As soon as the Arabs (who took advantage of great power weakness) took over non-Arabia parts they set up their bases there. Historically you could get invaders from the desert and they were often quite hardy and capable of taking over when the existing powers declined but that's it. From the Umayyads to the Ottomans Arabia was unimportant save that it had to be traversed from time to time.

You still might see some Arab migrations into this region since the client Arab states are still swept away. Perhaps they become a small Islamic minority in some areas?

Hmm, what is the fate of Persia here? If Persia falls, can the Byzantine Empire not also lose ground? Could Persia survive in reduced form as it does today while the Arabs have Iraq?

 

[Sevarics]

Something I wonder would be the conception of race in this situation. If the Byzantines retain control of North Africa and the Levant, will those people be seen as "white" and European?

 

[Malta]

Something I wonder would be the conception of race in this situation. If the Byzantines retain control of North Africa and the Levant, will those people be seen as "white" and European?

Well, during this time 'Greikos' and 'Rhomaioi' had rather blended together.