Effects of Russia Winning the Russo-Japanese War?

Lets say that Russia defeats Japan in the Russo-Japanese War, annexing Manchuria and establishing a protectorate over Korea, and probably taking Sakhalin. How will this effect the future of the world? Especially considering this was less than a decade from World War I iOTL.
 

xsampa

Banned
The Anglo-Russian alliance gets nixed, parts of coastal China get annexed to prevent the Russians from having it, no young turks no Persian constitutional revolution, US-UK naval alliance, Chinese revolution, possible Anglo-France split, possible red japan
 
The Russian peasants wouldn't already have less morale than the other powers, their fleet wouldn't have been beaten, likely meaning Russia can contribute to the eastern blockade, and Russia clearly has some better generals this time.
 
This is going to devastate Japan. The country had nearly bankrupted itself winning the war. Bankrupting itself and losing the war is going to cause significant social unrest. I fully expect Sakai Toshihiko to press the issue even more intensely than he did IOTL which probably means he doesn't just get 2 months in jail for complaining about high taxes, but with a defeat in the war the government won't be able to make him and the Heimin Shimbun disappear like they did OTL.

I don't think this kills Russo-Anglo rapprochement in 1907, but it might make for increased tensions between Russia and Britain in China and it will certainly make the Chinese more hostile to the emerging Entente.
 
Would this mean a neutral UK if World War I happens on schedule? Or would Belgium’s neutrality still bring Britain into the war. Which also reminds me, what about the Russian Civil War?
 
Would this mean a neutral UK if World War I happens on schedule? Or would Belgium’s neutrality still bring Britain into the war. Which also reminds me, what about the Russian Civil War?

That would be harsh. It would make a heckuva timeline but I hope the UK does not allow Germany to overrun Europe just because they have a grudge with one ally.
 
In a next large conflict (whatever it may be - alt-WWI or another colonial adventure) Russia will have much more chances to get beaten to a pulp. OTL the defeat from the Japan was a rude awakening and triggered a military overhaul which was not finished by 1914. In TTL there will be no reason to change anything.
 
In a next large conflict (whatever it may be - alt-WWI or another colonial adventure) Russia will have much more chances to get beaten to a pulp. OTL the defeat from the Japan was a rude awakening and triggered a military overhaul which was not finished by 1914. In TTL there will be no reason to change anything.
Does this mean Germany will defeat Russia in the Great War faster than they did OTL? That's bad news for France and Britain.
 
Does this mean Germany will defeat Russia in the Great War faster than they did OTL? That's bad news for France and Britain.

No, because that assumes everything else happens on cue. A Russian Victory does require naval success BTW and that's inherently unlikely after the destruction of the Far Easter Fleet.

But you then have at least an apparently strong Russia ( big Scary Steamroller) without the constitutional issues ( probably) interfering with the Balkans starting 1905 of the Moroccan Crisis and perfidious diplomats using that to break the triple alliance into pieces.
 

Deleted member 1487

Unless I missed it, has no one here mentioned no Russian Revolution of 1905? The trigger of that was the defeat in the Russo-Japanese War. Granted there were underlying factors that had nothing to do with the war, but it is hard to see it happening any time around when it did IOTL if the Russians win the war. Looks like a lot of the initiating moves were military mutinies, especially among reservists who were demobilized after the peace deal.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Japanese_War#Effects_on_Russia

No, because that assumes everything else happens on cue. A Russian Victory does require naval success BTW and that's inherently unlikely after the destruction of the Far Easter Fleet.

But you then have at least an apparently strong Russia ( big Scary Steamroller) without the constitutional issues ( probably) interfering with the Balkans starting 1905 of the Moroccan Crisis and perfidious diplomats using that to break the triple alliance into pieces.

If Russia isn't a basket case in 1905 is there a chance that Germany might not threaten war over Morocco? IIRC Wilhelm was willing to do so because Russia was seen as unable to fight, which effectively left France alone and vulnerable to threats of war.
 
If WW1 happens similarly, I assume Russia will be more politically stable, and therefore stay in longer?
But at the same time, others have pointed out that Russia will not have enacted the same military reforms as it did OTL, as it was able to defeat the Japanese using their old army.
 
A Russian Victory does require naval success BTW and that's inherently unlikely after the destruction of the Far Easter Fleet.
No, it doesn't. Russian naval success would certainly expedite a Russian victory in the War, but victory is not contingent upon that matter. Better Russian performance in the Battles of Sandepu and/or Mukden are far more important to a Russian victory in the war than a naval victory. If the Russian Army isn't broken in Southern Manchuria and maintains control of the region it doesn't matter if the Japanese have naval dominance, because the Russians will still hold Southern Manchuria and be able to be reinforced via that Trans-Siberian. The Japanese economy cannot withstand the strain put on it by a war that continues to drag on and the Russians will eventually be able to steamroll the Japanese forces thanks to numbers alone.
 
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