Effects of Operation Downfall on China?

If the US and Soviet Union invaded Japan, would the war have dragged on until 1947. In that case, what would have happened in China? Would they keep the armistace until the war ended? If so, who would have won when the war ended and the civil war rebegan?
 
A very interesting question, one that to my shame I've never considered. Using the usual 'Fermi gets his sums wrong' handwave, if a conventional invasion is forced in 1945, what happens in China generally, too? Were there still Japanese forces in China proper at the time of the bombing of Hiroshima?

I know the Communists had no navy to speak of (they barely have one now) and the Nationalists didn't have much to play with either, but what are the chances of them trying to get 'Chinese Brigades' sent over with the Allied/Soviet armies? Presumably later in the campaign. Would make for a fascinating vignette.
 
There were indeed IJA forces in China at the end of the war, in fact it took almost 10 years to get all of them repatriated back to Japan. Some of them even fought in the Chinese civil war and others acted as security forces after the Japanese surrender.

If Downfall happened instead of Hiroshima & Nagasaki, I think U.S. and possibly Soviet intervention in China would've been necessary to dislodge the Japanese. From what I've read, the Japanese were trying to shift as many forces back home from China for Ketsu-Go, but were having difficulty due to fuel shortages and U.S. strikes on Japanese shipping. I think this OP will spur some great discussion!
 
R. Frank's Downfall is a good read on the subject, as well as Forgotten Wars written by Bayly and Harper. China, Korea, Indochina, Burma, Malaya, Indonesia...a lot of places will look quite different if Japan goes down fighting.
 
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