Based off the discussion in these threads:
https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...de-peace-if-stalin-dropped-out-of-ww2.399353/
https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...ermany-already-victorious-in-the-east.302881/
If Nazi Germany had successfully defeated the USSR and occupied it to the Urals (AANW), could they have been successfully bombed into surrender/collapse using nuclear weapons by the WAllies and if so how many weapons would it have required?
Yes I believe they could be bombed into surrender. I suspect once the Nazi leadership had been killed off (and with nuclear weapons it wouldn't be that difficult) and the German infrastructure in ruins they would have surrendered.
As for the number of weapons, I'd say not more than twenty or so, delivered steadily and with the implication that the WAllies could keep such a bombardment up indefinately. Say one bomb every week, which is quite sustainable given early 1946 production rates.
What are the chances that Hitler and his inner circle would surrender if millions of their citizens died in nuclear fire?
Probably rather low. Once they're dead things should improve.
Is it possible that a victorious Reich stretching from France to the Urals (and given sufficient time to disperse manufacturing and consolidate their conquests) would be too structurally sound to be defeated *solely* through nuclear attack as opposed to a ground invasion in combination with bombing (both conventional and nuclear)?
Mmmm, I'd expect the WAllies to use a multi-pronged approach; landings in periphery, supported by lots of tactical nuclear weapons (and quite probably poison gas, especially if FDR is dead) while bombing Germany's industrial base with conventional and nuclear bombs, possibly also mixed with chemical agents.
Would the WAllies be willing to kill millions of Europeans even though it wasn't certain that nukes would make the Reich collapse?
Yes.
Depends on the targeting list. As i recall Trueman told the pentagon to take Tokyo off the list due to killing the Emporer would stiffen japanese resolve . Dont know if nuking Berlin and killing hitler would change anything?
Well with Hitler, Himmler et al dead I'd expect arranging German surrender would be easier.
FYI here is the production schedule for the Manhattan project, the fourth and subsequent weapons are from the Hull-Seaman memorandum of August 1945. This was drawn up to inform targeters developing a usage plan to support
Downfall.
Unless there are
significant variations from history the first weapon available (a MK3 plutonium bomb) will be available in early July 1945. Historically this was the 'Gadget' expended in the Trinity test on 16JUL1945. With different decisions that device
could have been weaponised and used against Germany. The next two weapons, the historical 'Little Boy' and 'Fat Man', will be available around the same time. T 'Little Boy' MK1 uranium bomb in mid-July 1945 and the second MK3 (the historical 'Fat Man') the following week.
The fourth weapon (using the historical 'Demon Core') was to be ready for use in mid August 1945.
· one MK 3 by 19AUG19451945 [bomb #4]
· a second MK 3 by 01SEP1945
· three more MK 3 (mix of MOD0 and the improved MOD1 configurations) by 30SEP1945
· three or four additional MK 3 weapons in OCT1945
· an additional MK 3 every ten days for the remainder of the year
· an additional MK 1 available before the end of 1945.
So assuming the Trinity test goes ahead that'd allow the USAAF (and possibly the RAF) to drop eighteen fission bombs on occupied Europe before 1945 was out. After that things would get really nasty for Germany. Historically after the surrender of Japan the Manhattan project was essentially shown down; with an active war against Germany happening production would be ramped up so in 1946 the production rate would increase further with newer reactors coming online (and the xenon poisoning problem mostly fixed). Expect
at least fifty nuclear bombs to be produced in 1946 and probably more than sixty. In fact 80-100 weapons would not be impossible.
Some of these would be the equivalent of later MODs of the MK3, with 2-3 times the yield of Fat Man and some would be the equivalent of the easier to deploy composite pit MK4.