Effects of no WW2 on the United States

[Cyclone]

There is a tendency in the West to view the New Deal as either completely effective or, more rarely, to politicize it as being a miserable failure because it was anti-free market and thus debilitated the US economy even further. But although the United States' GDP had caught up to its previous levels, its unemployment levels were still in the double digits until WW2 rolled around.

So suppose Hitler never gets anywhere near power and whatever regime comes to power doesn't go running all over Europe. At the same time, Japan doesn't go running all over China. What happens to the United States without WW2 to drive unemployment into the ground in the matter of a year?

 

[TNF]

What happens to the United States without WW2 to drive unemployment into the ground in the matter of a year?

Roosevelt's third term would still be heavily Kenyesian. He rejected calls for cutting spending after doing so killed the recovery during the 'Roosevelt Recession' and then spent much more in the aftermath, knocking unemployment down again. Even without World War II (which was Keynesianism's greatest success story), Roosevelt will still be able to spend his way to recovery, provided that Congress doesn't gum up the works.

 

[DuQuense]

Roosevelt's third term would still be heavily Kenyesian.

Pobaly no 3rd term - if no WW2

 

[Kalan]

What happens to the United States without WW2 to drive unemployment into the ground in the matter of a year?

The Unemployment still falls at the same speed as IOTL. In 1939 the unemployment was 17.2% in 1940 it fell to 14.6% (-2.6%), in 1941 it was at 9.9% (-4.7%). As the attack o Pearl Harbor happend only on 7 December, almost all of this decline still happend during peace. In 1942 the unemployment fell to 4.7% (-5.2%). So the unemployment fell at the same speed in the last year of peace and the first year of war, i.e. the war had no major impact.

 

[T3h_shammy]

The Unemployment still falls at the same speed as IOTL. In 1939 the unemployment was 17.2% in 1940 it fell to 14.6% (-2.6%), in 1941 it was at 9.9% (-4.7%). As the attack o Pearl Harbor happend only on 7 December, almost all of this decline still happend during peace. In 1942 the unemployment fell to 4.7% (-5.2%). So the unemployment fell at the same speed in the last year of peace and the first year of war, i.e. the war had no major impact.

That's assuming too much. How do you know the Economy wouldn't have hit a recession in '42 if the War didn't happen. And in 1941 people had jobs working for Lend Lease. So yes the War did have an impact.

 

[TNF]

Pobaly no 3rd term - if no WW2

Alright, then we need to discuss who takes over after Roosevelt.

If it's a liberal Democrat or a moderate Republican, then recovery probably comes just as swiftly as it did IOTL, with the pump primed.

If it's a conservative Democrat or conservative Republican, expect the situation to get worse and unemployment to remain high.

 

[Astrodragon]

The Unemployment still falls at the same speed as IOTL. In 1939 the unemployment was 17.2% in 1940 it fell to 14.6% (-2.6%), in 1941 it was at 9.9% (-4.7%). As the attack o Pearl Harbor happend only on 7 December, almost all of this decline still happend during peace. In 1942 the unemployment fell to 4.7% (-5.2%). So the unemployment fell at the same speed in the last year of peace and the first year of war, i.e. the war had no major impact.

Thats very unlikely, a lot of that employment was paid for by French and British gold. The Lend-lease could be done by increased US internal investment, but its unlikely it would have reached the same levels.

 

[Typo]

The Unemployment still falls at the same speed as IOTL. In 1939 the unemployment was 17.2% in 1940 it fell to 14.6% (-2.6%), in 1941 it was at 9.9% (-4.7%). As the attack o Pearl Harbor happend only on 7 December, almost all of this decline still happend during peace. In 1942 the unemployment fell to 4.7% (-5.2%). So the unemployment fell at the same speed in the last year of peace and the first year of war, i.e. the war had no major impact.

You do realize US rearmament started before Pearl Harbor right?