Effects of No Vietnam War on Southeast Asia

Let's say that the Vietnam War, at least as we know it, never happens. North and South Vietnam are still divided and there are probably conflicts between the two, but it never escalates to what it became in OTL. America never gets involved, no Tet Offensive, nothing like that. Maybe something like the situation in Korea, where things are tense but it never balloons into full-scale war.

What I want to know are the effects this has on the two countries and their neighbors culturally, socially, militarily, and environmentally. How does this effect Thailand and Laos? Does Cambodia still fall under the Khmer Rouge? What about Malaysia and Singapore? Does domino theory come true and more countries fall to communism?
 
Well more than half of the VWP in the DRVN have had to have been eliminated, regardless of their position on the Northern Development line. And the VWP in the RVN obviously placidly let themselves and rural workers be physically liquidated in the most unusual political decision in history.

So obviously the answer is that state after state in east Asia falls to the international communist conspiracy, probably due to fluids contamination of the body politic.
 
And the VWP in the RVN obviously placidly let themselves and rural workers be physically liquidated in the most unusual political decision in history.

Or they are allowed to move North, like those Catholics in North that led to hundreds of thousands of the refugees going south from North Vietnam in 1954

An independent study by the French historian Bernard B. Fall determined that the US Navy transported around 310,000 refugees. The French were credited with around 214,000 airlifted refugees, 270,000 seaborne refugees and 120,000 and 80,000 Vietnamese and French military evacuees respectively.[3] During the US Navy voyages, 54 people died on board, and 111 babies were born.[26] Fall believed that of the 109,000 refugees who went south by their own means, a large number hitchhiked on southbound French transport vessels that were not related to the migration operation. Fall felt that the figures were likely to have been overestimated, due to immigration fraud. Some refugees would travel south and register themselves, before smuggling themselves onto vessels returning north for another shipment of humans. They would then return south and re-register to claim another aid package. Likewise, with instances of entire villages moving south, the authorities frequently did not explicitly count the number of villagers, but simply took the word of the village leaders. The chiefs would often inflate the population figures to claim more aid rations. The mass exodus did not disrupt the north largely because whole villages often emigrated, instead of half a village moving and leaving the remainder of the community in disarray. Fall estimated that around 120,000 Viet Minh troops and their dependents went north. Most of these evacuations were attributed to Viet Minh military strategy, with some being ordered to stay behind in readiness for future guerrilla activities.

Bold is mine. In this TL, Uncle Ho plays it straight, and doesn't plan for later rebellion, Workers Party people move North
 
So obviously the answer is that state after state in east Asia falls to the international communist conspiracy, probably due to fluids contamination of the body politic.

Good thing we listened to General Ripper and not those pesky bureaucrats fighting in the war room...
 
IMHO the butterfly with the most impact from no Vietnam War is that Cambodia is spared the disaster of the Khmer Rouge. Sihanouk did a pretty good job of tap dancing among all the disparate political elements until the overflow from Vietnam completely destabilized the situation. Exactly what happens in Cambodia can go lots of different ways but the horrific period of Khmer Rouge ascendancy almost certainly won't happen. North Vietnam was never as batshit crazy as North Korea, so after the end of the Cold War I can see relations between the USA and North Vietnam warming, and the border between north and south more open - nothing like the DMZ. Both Vietnams really, really have issues with China - OTL Vietnam is really upset by the issues of the South China Sea among others...
 
Top