Effects Of No Unification Of Spain On Europe

A while back, I wrote an (unfinished) TL concerning this scenario. The title was "Jo El Rei", if you're interested in looking through the archives (someday perhaps I'll go back to writing it if I have time).

Both Razgriz and Falecius have the right idea. An independent Aragon under the Prince of Girona would undoubtably be pro-Habsburg, at least at the onset and mostly out of necessity.

First, you have strong family ties (technically Charles V is Juan's nephew), which at this time in European politics still means a great deal. As mentioned, there's also the issue of Aragon's interests in Italy, with the annexation of Naples in 1504. Curiously, Naples might not be as much of a sore point between France and Aragon in this scenario, as the treaty between Louis XII and Ferdinand II, signed at the time of the latter's marriage to Germaine de Foix, renounced the Valois claims to Naples and recognised the right of Ferdinand's children by Germaine to that kingdom (part of a brief compromise that was rendered moot in OTL). This not withstanding, French ambitions in Milan are counter to Aragonese interests for purely geopolitical reasons, and Juan will support the Sforzas and the Imperial faction at all costs against the Valois.

Apart from Italy, Aragonese foreign policy will also be highly concentrated on North Africa. It's important for Aragon to maintain its naval supremacy in the Medeterranian. In OTL the Turks were a constant headache, as they supported the Barbary Pirates who raided the coasts of Valencia and Catalonia, crippling commerce. At the very least, Juan will need to successfully capture Algiers and Tunis to maintain his goals. If the French still ally with the Ottomans as in OTL, this means an even stronger anti-French position in Aragon.

There's also the issue of Navarre. As mentioned, Ferdinand II will annex the kingdom for Aragon and not Castile in this scenario—for a variety of historical, geopolitical and dynastic reasons, the least of which being his wife's claims and Aragon's own past personal union with that realm. The Albrets will be supported by the Valois, which means even more reasons to ally with the Empire.

Aragon is also going to face a lot of internal problems in the early reign of Juan. The revolt of the Germanies will most likely occur on schedule (it was for different reasons than the Communeros in Castile). Catalan trade has also been damaged by piracy, as I've stated, though at least Valencia was showing signs of recovery. Most likely, Alonso d'Aragon, Juan's elderly, bastard half-brother and the Archbishop of Zaragoza, will be named as regent. If he still dies on schedule, several years later, than Germaine will probably be the next choice—and in OTL, she showed herself ruthless, pragmatic and competent in governing Valencia for Charles V and putting down the revolts there.

Above all, Juan is going to have a lot of work to do, and in order to do well as king, will need to be just as clever and duplicitous as his father. If he's smart, may entertain a French alliance from time to time for pragmatic reasons—such as avoiding the cost of war and keeping Charles V from becoming too imperious of an ally (no pun intended), but in the end, he's going to be pro-Habsburg.

Hope that helps.

Amitiés,
Endymion

Thanks, I am now back at this idea so you have helped tremendously. What about the Hapsburgs and their lands?
 

katchen

Banned
And yes, an independent Aragon is likely to evolve into an independent Catalonia, especially if the capital is at Barcelona.
 
I'm interested on the scenario. I'm in the early stages of thinking up a TL where Juana (Isabella's niece, not her daughter) actually manages to obtain the throne in the Second Castillian Civil War. I envision Spain staying stably divided between Portugal-Castille, Granada and Aragon-Navarre.

My (naive) views is:
Castille-Portugal (specially after the eventual dinastic union) would be allied to England and dominating the oceans.
Aragon (with the IOTL-catholic kings) with Austria-HRE (i'd like to picture that they still manage to marry their heir to the HRE heir) and extending their reach in the Mediterranean (Ferdinand had crusading dreams of taking Alexandria to beach-head into holy land).
France would be in a very tight spot.
Not sure how to handle Granada, to be honest. It's supposed to start alligned with Castille at first, but that might change over time. It would have territorial problems with Aragon in the picture i had made, so allying with them would be unlikely... Their economy was decaying badly IOTL but if they can become again a trade hub, things might look up for them.

Am i too far off?

Parts of that sound legit. Both Portugal and Castile were allied to England at one point. But with Aragon, I doubt there would be a marriage with the Habsburgs. First of all there was never a marriage between a Habsburg and an Argonese Princess before Spanish Unification. Second of all, why would the Habsburgs marry into Aragon? With Spain there was a reason: Newly unified Catholic country that was expanding into the new world and North Africa. With Aragon, I can't see a reason. With the location of the Habsburg Dominion, a match with an Italian, French or Hungarian Princess would be best. Also, Crusades were done with by the point of the POD. Even if Ferdinand wanted to expand that far, what reason would Austria have to involve itself in such an expensive and potentially weakening war? I can't see a reason here. Finally, if Aragon was rivaled to Castile (and it would be with Isabella as Queen consort of Aragon) then Aragon would look to France for an Alliance to counter Castile-Portugal. It makes the most strategic sense.

As for Granada, well why wouldn't Castile conquer it eventually? Even without unification, Castile was still a Catholic country bordered by a Muslim one. And a fairly easy war with Granada would be a great popularity boost in Castile and a propaganda coup in Europe.
 
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