Effects of no Spanish Netherlands?

Hey Guys,

What If the 'Spanish Netherlands' went to Ferdinand I, Holy Roman Emperor, rather than Philip II of Spain?

Primarily I'd like to know what effects would this have on Spain itself, and the Mediterranean as a whole. Would Spain become more Mediterranean orientated, and thus potentially pose a threat to the Ottomans? Or would Spain simply focus on its colonies?

Also what economic impact would this have on Spain, the Low Countries and the Hapsburg Empire?

Last, but not least, would Ferdinand I be able to stave off a revolt in the Low Countries?
 
Hey Guys,

What If the 'Spanish Netherlands' went to Ferdinand I, Holy Roman Emperor, rather than Philip II of Spain?
It's a really difficult question. I think at some point, Belgium would be formed later in history anyway.

Primarily I'd like to know what effects would this have on Spain itself, and the Mediterranean as a whole. Would Spain become more Mediterranean orientated, and thus potentially pose a threat to the Ottomans? Or would Spain simply focus on its colonies?
I think a combination of both would be most likely, and the colonies would get a lot of attention.

Also what economic impact would this have on Spain, the Low Countries and the Hapsburg Empire?
I'm not too sure. I'm not that good with this period of history...

Last, but not least, would Ferdinand I be able to stave off a revolt in the Low Countries?
No, I don't think so. The Low Countries were a likely place for problems, since rulers were likely to deplete it with huge taxes etc. Also, religious problems could arise anyway.
 
Hey Guys,

What If the 'Spanish Netherlands' went to Ferdinand I, Holy Roman Emperor, rather than Philip II of Spain?

Why would that happen: That is the fundamental question. In 1521, Austria went to Charles' brother Ferdinand, who later inherited Hungary and Bohemia from the Jagiellons.
But when the last Sforza Duke of Milan died in 1540, the Emperor claimed the duchy as imperial fief for his son Philip. When Charles abdicated in 1556, everything he still ruled went to his son. I assume that Ferdinand's rumoured protestant tendencies and the fact that he had negotiated the treaty of Augsburg did not help him in Charles' eyes.

In other words, to have this partition, we have to change the inter-family dynamics of the Habsburgs a lot.
a) We could make Charles less strictly catholic. Huuuge butterflies.
b) We could create a personality-based rift between father and son, making Philip less desirable as general heir for Charles. Perhaps the easiest method.

Primarily I'd like to know what effects would this have on Spain itself, and the Mediterranean as a whole. Would Spain become more Mediterranean orientated, and thus potentially pose a threat to the Ottomans? Or would Spain simply focus on its colonies?

Many consequences.
Just a few that come to mind:
Slightly lessened French feeling of encirclement
No Spanish Road from Milan to the Rhine and Flanders necessary.
No huge drain on Spanish fianaces to fight the Dutch insurrection.
Less need for Spain to fight the Englich as Dutch supporters.
Less incentive for England to support Dutch rebels.
I could imagine that this Spain stays more disunited: Portugal and Castile focus on their colonies, the Crown of Aragon focuses on Italy and the Med. Less royally enforced coopoeration.

Last, but not least, would Ferdinand I be able to stave off a revolt in the Low Countries?

This depends much on what has come before. But as HRE, he cannot be to lenient towards protestants, especially not *in his own domains*. Negotiation with protestant imperial princes in different than with your own lesser nobility and princes. On the other hand, one of the most important early complaints was the "swamping" of Burgundian institutions with Spanish noblemen, and that would not happen here.
 
It's a really difficult question. I think at some point, Belgium would be formed later in history anyway.

I think maybe a separate Walloon and Flemish could be formed. I ain't quite sure on how Belgium was formed and whether those circumstances will still exist if someone else gets them.
 

ingemann

Banned
The easiest way would be to kill off Philip II in 1543, while Charles will likely remarry, he's unlikely to get a son. So Ferdinand become king of all of Charles inheritance for a few short year before he dies in 1564. After his death, Maximilian get the imperial throne, the Burgundian and Austrian inheritance, Ferdinand junior get Spain and the Italian possesions, while poor Charles Francis only get Further Austria (and maybe Tyrol).
So what will Ferdinand'ss and Maximilian's rule of the Netherlands mean. Well they will likely extend wide religious tolerance, but at the same time trying to extend royal power. In Austria that compromise was a success, and it will likely be so too in Netherlands. Without Spanish control of the Netherlands, Maxillian may also say fuck it and convert to the Lutheran faith and supporting the Lutheran takeover of the prince-bishoprics. It may make the pope set up a anti-emperor, but on the other hand the popes had learned a lesson about pushing the Habsburg around, when Charles sacked Rome.
Spain are also better off, without wasting their gold on the 80 Year War, but they will likely waste them on wars in North Africa instead. Portugal are the big winner without the loss of their East Asian colonies to Netherlands, so we may see a Portuguese Indonesia instead on a Dutch one (so Indonesia may end up Catholic). The Dutch under Habsburg rule, will likely end up with colonies in India instead, and we may see India end up under the HRE instead of English control.
Of course everything may end up a disaster if Catholic Habsburgs end up in charge anyway in 1618. But in that case the Protestant position may be strong enough, that the emperor at that point have no choice to accept the religious status quo as the Calvinist Hohenzollern had to do in Lutheran Brandenburg.
 
It's a really difficult question. I think at some point, Belgium would be formed later in history anyway.

That is think the is the least likely thing. In all certainty the Walloon areas while go to France just like all the other French speaking areas of the HRE and the Flemish areas will either go to "Germany/HRE successor", the Netherlands or France (if France does really well).


Without without the Spanish Netherlands Potosi is still going to spent on the Hapsburgs Imperial Ambitions, it the nature of the era and the governmental set up. In all certainty what will happen is that Ferdinand the Catholics "continuation" of the Reconquista into North Africa will continue rather than petering out. I'm not sure how successful they'll be, the history of the English in Tangiers and the various Spanish and Portugese attempts in OTL suggest Morocco will be a much harder target than Grenada but the Spanish will have an enormous amount of money to throw at Morocco and the logistics will be a lot better which means a lot more bang for their buck. It's early enough that you might well see widespread conversions in any conquered territory that's held for some time which if boosted by OTL style expulsions could result in a chunk of North Africa becoming permanently Christian.
 
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I wouldn't say that Ferdinand I was less Catholic than Charles V, however he was a more pragmatic politician. Though that might have also have been due to the power both men had.
Regarding suspected Protestant sympathies, that would be Maximilian II, the eldest son and (main) heir of Ferdinand.

IOTL Charles V did contemplate about separating the Burgundian Lands from the Spanish kingdoms. Either as an option to resolve the conflict with France; in such a scenario a younger son of the king of France would marry a Habsburg archduchess and get the Burgundian Lands or the duchy of Milan and a substantial number of French appanages.
Another more likely option was to keep it in the dynasty. IOTL Maximilian II, the son and heir of Ferdinand I, married Mary, daughter of Charles V, and it was considered to give the Burgundian Lands to them.

IMHO the latter scenario would be doable; the Burgundian Lands, heritage of Charles V, would through his daughter pass to the Austrian branch of Ferdinand I. At the same time, Ferdinand will have to accept that the duchy of Milan will stay with the Spanish branch; IOTL both Charles and Ferdinand wanted Milan for their branch.

Finally a more pragmatic rule could help to keep the Netherlands Habsburg; IOTL at one point many parts were Protestant too. Eventually an ATL Counter Reformation will occur though. I can also see Colonial ventures starting from the region.
There's one weak spot though a potential for a conflict between the Austrian Habsburgs and France & the Ottoman Empire. However if they manage to secure their border with France I can see them restoring the kingdom of Hungary (and the other Lands of the Crown of Saint Stephen) a bit sooner; yet if they aim to gain more they probably rapidly loose support.
 
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