So let’s say that 9/11 is foiled in some way, whether it be the Bush admin paying attention to the warning signs, or Bin Laden being killed in an air strike in 1998, or whatever. Without 9/11, how does Dubya’s first term play out, and does he get re-elected in 2004? Additionally who would be the Dem nominee in 2004?
Effects of no 9/11 on 2004 Election?
- Thread starter Bomster
- Start date
I think the culture war will be ramped up even more...Rove did it already OTL by getting gay marriage on the ballot in places like Ohio in 04 to drive evangelical turnout. And the summer of 2001 was dominated by the debate over stem cell research before 9/11 washed all that away from the news. Maybe when the economy really begins softening, Bush and Co turn heavily into "Abortion and Gays" to get their base out? Can't say I could see Kerry as the nominee with no military conflict...maybe Edwards making a bigger move? Were there any other big names who sat out 04?
Bob Graham and Dick Gephardt? Paul Wellstone if his death is butterflied away?
It's possible that Gore runs again and he frames 2004 as a do-over of 2000. But 9/11 so changed the world that it's hard to determine exactly how Bush would've governed had it never happened. In all likelihood, he remains focused on domestic policy through 2002, when the Dems probably make gains in Congress (unlike OTL where they lost seats overall). So 2004 will most likely depend on whether or not the public approves of his domestic policies. If Gore is the Democratic nominee, then the outcome will also depend on whether enough people feel that he was cheated four years before.
It’s kind of impossible to say what would happen if the War on Terror never did, because it’s like people speculating what would happened if Franz Ferdinand was never shot or if Hitler was never born.
If the culture war is even more heightened than OTL 2004 I'm not sure the Dems would go with an unexciting social moderate like Gore, especially since the Republicans would go for the jugular on his flip flop on abortion back in the 1980s.
Without 9/11, the Bush administration would definitely not be able to do as much as they want to. They’d still do the tax cuts and the economic would likely be sluggish. Without 9/11, it’d be harder to justify an Iraq situation and if they did somehow try to, it’d be a clusterfuck since it’d be reported as a war built on flimsy justifications to take attention.
Granted, we could just end up in a situation where Bush still wins in 2004 because people voting in the incumbent and a lack of strong alternatives, though it’d cement the GOP being wiped in 2008.
That being said, not
Granted, we could just end up in a situation where Bush still wins in 2004 because people voting in the incumbent and a lack of strong alternatives, though it’d cement the GOP being wiped in 2008.
That being said, not
Bush most likely wins. The economy wasn't quite bad enough to take down an incumbent.
Bush wins, Democrats don't have their successful 2006 with no Iraq to galvanize their base and the GOP gets rocked in 2008 due to the economy. Very difficult to butterfly away the Recession, especially with Bush winning in 2004.
my guess is without iraq/afghanistan deficits you get a bit of a differently timed+milder recession. imagine if we get a mild recession in 2005, narrow dem win in 2008 and some moderate then a *great recession in 2010 or 2011 under a dem
I think ENRON is bigger. I think GW Bush loses. Query would it be too late to prevent or suppress the dangerous banking practices of otl
If the broader economic trends and structural problems that caused the Great Recession aren't butterflied, then whoever defeats Bush in 2004 most likely loses in 2008.
SsgtC
Banned
The Bush administration may respond differently to the economy tanking compared to OTL. With no Middle East war to distract them and a greater focus on Domestic issues, it's possible the recession is more mild. Regardless, 2008 will not be a good year for the GOP. They'll lose seats in both houses and almost certainly lose the White House.
Romney might very well win the GOP nomination as he can play up his business background (for good or ill depending on your POV). I wonder who would win the Democrat nomination. Without being able to tout his "no" vote on the Iraq War (and being able to blast Hillary for her flip flop on it) Obama likely doesn't win the nomination. Hell, without the war raising his profile, he's probably not even considered for the nomination. That leaves Hillary and whoever else runs.
Romney might very well win the GOP nomination as he can play up his business background (for good or ill depending on your POV). I wonder who would win the Democrat nomination. Without being able to tout his "no" vote on the Iraq War (and being able to blast Hillary for her flip flop on it) Obama likely doesn't win the nomination. Hell, without the war raising his profile, he's probably not even considered for the nomination. That leaves Hillary and whoever else runs.