Effects of No 1812 Invasion on Russia, and on the Ottomans

Suppose the Franco-Russian Alliance of Tilist manages to endure -- we don't have to get into the particulars here, but this is what I'm thinking -- and Napoleon's invasion of 1812 is butterflied away entirely. What I'm curious about, for this thread, is how this influences the way the Russo-Turkish War (that started 1806) is affected by this change, and how this affects the course of Russia and the Ottoman Empire more generally (plus maybe the Grand Duchy of Warsaw, if it's directly related). My thoughts thus far:
There's also the interesting question of how an averted French Invasion changes things in Russia, especially if replaced with an earlier Anglo-French Peace and end to the Continental System; OTL, these strains were the undoing of Alexander's liberal minister, Mikhail Speransky, and could be said to have set back liberalization and modernization in Russia by decades, so TTL could have some really interesting potential in that respect.

And actually, on the subject of Russia, what does this mean for the Ottoman Empire? Because the imminent threat of Napoleon's invasion was pretty much the crucial reason that the Russo-Turkish War ended in 1812 the way it did; even if Josephine doesn't send French troops (or coordinate Austrian troops) to help carve up the Porte's realms, the simple fact of Russia having more manuverability for their aggression could mean the annexation of Moldovia and Wallachia, or possibly even further Ottoman losses in Bosnia, Serbia, and Bulgaria. Thoughts?

CONSOLIDATE: Something else that comes to mind -- could this PoD help to bring about an earlier end of serfdom in Russia? If so, how much earlier is likely? And what of serfdom's abolition in Poland -- I've read that the Grand Duchy of Warsaw had formally abolished the institution in continuity with the 1794 revolt, yet the Congress of Poland plainly still had serfdom in 1861 (when it was abolished OTL); does anyone know what the story is there, and what that means for Polish serfdom TTL?
 
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I'm actually doing research for a Napoleon timeline of my own right now. The most immediate effect on the Turkish war might be a lack of Kutuzov coming out of retirement, because that was something Alexander was extremely reluctant to do, since he hated the man so much. Without the pressure of imminent French invasion, he'd come up with excuses to send anybody else. The question then becomes what results they'd get, since the Russians' progress up to 1811 was measured, albeit real.

As for serfdom, I don't get the sense that Alexander could have done about it during his reign because of how touchy the issue was. I don't know how Polish serfdom would develop, though. I actually think I'll have Nappy ditch the Grand Duchy idea in my story, so I haven't looked too closely.
 
If France remains more or less friendly with Russia, you'd already see changes before 1812.

In the beginning of 1811, the French threat forced Russia to withdraw 5 divisions away from the army arrayed against the Ottoman Empire on the Danube (out of 9 divisions total). This greatly weakened the Russian war effort against the Ottomans, and also turned what was meant to be the start of a large and energetic offensive into months of defensive posture and inconclusive battles.

TRH raises an interesting point about Kutuzov - it's possible that the Russian armies on the Danube would be robbed of a great commander - though not necessarily robbed of a good commander. But this scenario also makes the Russian forces more than twice as strong (and that, at the very least). Whether or not the victory over the Ottomans is flashy and spectacular, I imagine it will be very thorough.

The end result would probably be Russian annexation of Moldavia and Wallachia; the legalization of the Serbian rebel government as an autonomous state; and more Russian gains in the Caucasus region.
 
Would this change alone make Bosnia more vulnerable? And I wonder now if the Greeks get autonomy/independence earlier...

I think so.

With regards to the Greek independence movement, there are a couple more things to keep in mind. The first is that, with the Ottoman loss of Wallachia and Moldavia, the Phanariote elites would lose their main source of revenue, employment and purpose. They wouldn't be rendered completely useless to the Porte, but we can expect an even quicker and more radical break between this part of Greek society and the Ottoman state. The second one is that the Septinsular Republic stays a French, not British protectorate (that is, if it doesn't somehow fall into Russia's hands), which could also have interesting - if unclear - consequences for the inevitable revolt.
 
As for serfdom, I don't get the sense that Alexander could have done about it during his reign because of how touchy the issue was.
Could there have been more aggressive reforms on it, possibly laying the groundwork for earlier abolition?
The second one is that the Septinsular Republic stays a French, not British protectorate (that is, if it doesn't somehow fall into Russia's hands), which could also have interesting - if unclear - consequences for the inevitable revolt.
Well, not as sure about this -- Britain managed to take each of the islands (except Corfu) 1809-10, so depending on our PoD for preserving the Franco-Russian Alliance (Oct 1809, say), that won't necessarily be prevented; then again, if said PoD also leads to the British and French finally coming to terms and earlier than 1814, then said republic could be returned to French protection... or possibly Russia's, as you suggest.
 
Well, not as sure about this -- Britain managed to take each of the islands (except Corfu) 1809-10, so depending on our PoD for preserving the Franco-Russian Alliance (Oct 1809, say), that won't necessarily be prevented; then again, if said PoD also leads to the British and French finally coming to terms and earlier than 1814, then said republic could be returned to French protection... or possibly Russia's, as you suggest.

Fair point.

Come to think of it, the Ionian Islands probably wouldn't return to Russia's protection. The Erfurt convention between France and Russia recognized Russia's right to establish a border on the Danube, if it can - but, at the same time, prohibited Russia from making annexations or protectorates south of the Danube. Not that there's an easy way Russia could even seize those islands.

Technically, a Russian protectorate in autonomous Serbia would also be a violation of the Erfurt terms, but I don't see Russia giving that up. If France chooses to complain, it can be placated with a concession elsewhere...or even by offering the throne of Serbia to one of the Bonapartes. Maybe Lucien Bonaparte - he has no crowns to his name, and he'll presumably be admitted back into the family after Napoleon's death.

Back to the Ionian islands - Russia might not have much of a chance there, but I think France does. It would still have a presence there...and, once a treaty is imposed onto the Ottomans, it could easily include a clause forcing the Ottomans to cut ties with the British occupation. The British on the islands would find themselves in an isolated and fairly uncomfortable position.
 
@Halagaz OK, looks like France could keep the Ionian Islands after all; what that could mean here is, if the Greeks start getting ideas of cutting ties with Constantinople, it will be the French and their allies who are most likely to enter in terms of influence, making autonomist or independent Greece a French "protectorate". Assuming this Greek state includes Thessaly and Morea at minimum, and since a possible Hapsburg absorption of Bosnia and the Russian getting Moldovia and Wallachia have already been already mentioned, could this push also come to include Albania, Macedonia, and/or Bulgaria in the near term?

On top of this, it has to be remembered that Britain is still very much a presence in the Mediterranean -- even if they acquiesce to French presence on the Ionians, if it only serves as a prelude to carving up the Ottomans in full, I expect they're going to "step in" in some fashion or another, if not to prop up the Ottomans as such than to make sure more of their territory doesn't just fold to French or Russian influence. Which is to say, I think TTL could expect British garrisons on Crete and Cyrus, as well as offering "protection" to Egypt, and possibly much of North Africa.

This actually raises an interesting question in itself -- if the Ottoman Empire suffers this kind of earlier precipitous decline, effectively moving the fall of the Balkans et el back six decades, this would seriously change the OTL Tanzimat Period. So what kind of effect does this have not only on the lands that make up (or OTL, made up) the empire, but also on Islam as a whole?
 
@Halagaz OK, looks like France could keep the Ionian Islands after all; what that could mean here is, if the Greeks start getting ideas of cutting ties with Constantinople, it will be the French and their allies who are most likely to enter in terms of influence, making autonomist or independent Greece a French "protectorate". Assuming this Greek state includes Thessaly and Morea at minimum, and since a possible Hapsburg absorption of Bosnia and the Russian getting Moldovia and Wallachia have already been already mentioned, could this push also come to include Albania, Macedonia, and/or Bulgaria in the near term?

On top of this, it has to be remembered that Britain is still very much a presence in the Mediterranean -- even if they acquiesce to French presence on the Ionians, if it only serves as a prelude to carving up the Ottomans in full, I expect they're going to "step in" in some fashion or another, if not to prop up the Ottomans as such than to make sure more of their territory doesn't just fold to French or Russian influence. Which is to say, I think TTL could expect British garrisons on Crete and Cyrus, as well as offering "protection" to Egypt, and possibly much of North Africa.

This actually raises an interesting question in itself -- if the Ottoman Empire suffers this kind of earlier precipitous decline, effectively moving the fall of the Balkans et el back six decades, this would seriously change the OTL Tanzimat Period. So what kind of effect does this have not only on the lands that make up (or OTL, made up) the empire, but also on Islam as a whole?

I think Russia might step up its pan-Slavist ideologies in order to take a shot at Bulgaria and possibly even Albania. Persia is a little past its prime, but it might try to move in on Mesopotamia. Egypt could even take a shot at becoming independent if the Ottomans totally fall apart.
 
Persia is a little past its prime, but it might try to move in on Mesopotamia.
Past their prime or not, they're also at war with Russia over the Caucuses, so at minimum they'll want to finish and recover from that before looking to dog-pile on their neighbor. Speaking of which...
Could earlier Russian gains in the Balkans precipitate an earlier Great Game with the British Empire?
Well, in part I expect that would depend on how French power and Western Europe play out TTL, but also on whether Russia still moves to conquer and fully annex Central Asia; I expect the latter should remain at least possible, assuming Persia is still defeated and control over the Caspian won, so it's a matter of whether they will, or whether they'll be too distracted by their victories in Europe and the Balkans.
 
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