John Fredrick Parker
Donor
Suppose the Franco-Russian Alliance of Tilist manages to endure -- we don't have to get into the particulars here, but this is what I'm thinking -- and Napoleon's invasion of 1812 is butterflied away entirely. What I'm curious about, for this thread, is how this influences the way the Russo-Turkish War (that started 1806) is affected by this change, and how this affects the course of Russia and the Ottoman Empire more generally (plus maybe the Grand Duchy of Warsaw, if it's directly related). My thoughts thus far:
CONSOLIDATE: Something else that comes to mind -- could this PoD help to bring about an earlier end of serfdom in Russia? If so, how much earlier is likely? And what of serfdom's abolition in Poland -- I've read that the Grand Duchy of Warsaw had formally abolished the institution in continuity with the 1794 revolt, yet the Congress of Poland plainly still had serfdom in 1861 (when it was abolished OTL); does anyone know what the story is there, and what that means for Polish serfdom TTL?
There's also the interesting question of how an averted French Invasion changes things in Russia, especially if replaced with an earlier Anglo-French Peace and end to the Continental System; OTL, these strains were the undoing of Alexander's liberal minister, Mikhail Speransky, and could be said to have set back liberalization and modernization in Russia by decades, so TTL could have some really interesting potential in that respect.
And actually, on the subject of Russia, what does this mean for the Ottoman Empire? Because the imminent threat of Napoleon's invasion was pretty much the crucial reason that the Russo-Turkish War ended in 1812 the way it did; even if Josephine doesn't send French troops (or coordinate Austrian troops) to help carve up the Porte's realms, the simple fact of Russia having more manuverability for their aggression could mean the annexation of Moldovia and Wallachia, or possibly even further Ottoman losses in Bosnia, Serbia, and Bulgaria. Thoughts?
CONSOLIDATE: Something else that comes to mind -- could this PoD help to bring about an earlier end of serfdom in Russia? If so, how much earlier is likely? And what of serfdom's abolition in Poland -- I've read that the Grand Duchy of Warsaw had formally abolished the institution in continuity with the 1794 revolt, yet the Congress of Poland plainly still had serfdom in 1861 (when it was abolished OTL); does anyone know what the story is there, and what that means for Polish serfdom TTL?
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