Effects of Mongol Conquest of Egypt?

What would happen if the Mongols had managed to win the Battle of Ain Jalut and conquered Egypt? What effects would this have on North and/or Sub-Saharan Africa? I'm particularly interested in what effects this could have on the Horn of Africa, mostly Ethiopia and Eritrea.
 
What other effects could Mongol rule in Egypt could have on the rest of Northern and Eastern Africa?

It depends on a few things. When the Mongol 'World Empire' is split between the various successor states, does Egypt become part of the Ilkhanate, or another polity altogether?

If it is part of the Ilkhanate, I would go as far as to argue that the Copts will actually be favoured. Originally, the Ilkhanate favoured Nestorian Christianity over Islam, and they will likely continue this policy of favouritism for Christians that aren't aligned to a foreign power (i.e. Catholics or Greek Orthodox) over the majority Muslims. This will allow them to establish a 'middle-man' force with the Copts. I doubt that Egypt would remain under the Ilkhanate by the time that the Ilkhans convert to Islam. It is too compact a bloc, and too far from the other Ilkhan centre of power, the Iranian plateau, for the two to remain united long-term. Once the Ilkhans lose Egypt, probably a withdrawal as a result of concurrent rebellions throughout the empire, it is probable that the Copts will seek intervention by the Kingdom of Makuria, which may experience a revival as they occupy the power vacuum. This ends up as an Islam-screw in the short to medium term, as despite the region being thoroughly Muslim in faith, geopolitically the area is dominated by non-Muslims. In the long-term, who knows.
 
If it is part of the Ilkhanate, I would go as far as to argue that the Copts will actually be favoured. Originally, the Ilkhanate favoured Nestorian Christianity over Islam, and they will likely continue this policy of favouritism for Christians that aren't aligned to a foreign power (i.e. Catholics or Greek Orthodox) over the majority Muslims. This will allow them to establish a 'middle-man' force with the Copts. I doubt that Egypt would remain under the Ilkhanate by the time that the Ilkhans convert to Islam. It is too compact a bloc, and too far from the other Ilkhan centre of power, the Iranian plateau, for the two to remain united long-term. Once the Ilkhans lose Egypt, probably a withdrawal as a result of concurrent rebellions throughout the empire, it is probable that the Copts will seek intervention by the Kingdom of Makuria, which may experience a revival as they occupy the power vacuum. This ends up as an Islam-screw in the short to medium term, as despite the region being thoroughly Muslim in faith, geopolitically the area is dominated by non-Muslims. In the long-term, who knows.
How about the Horn of Africa?
 

Marc

Donor
I think the Mongols would face the same challenges that I have articulated in regards to Crusaders etc experiencing. Lower Egypt would be fairly easily tamable, at least short term, but Upper Egypt would be more difficult, and likely not worth bothering save for tribute from the Arab tribes that were the de facto overlords of the region. Smashing a potential power rival is right up the Mongol alley if they press it. However it's not clear that even with a major victory they really want to do more than politically humble the Mameluke - there are a lot of variables to consider.
 
What would happen if the Mongols had managed to win the Battle of Ain Jalut and conquered Egypt? What effects would this have on North and/or Sub-Saharan Africa? I'm particularly interested in what effects this could have on the Horn of Africa, mostly Ethiopia and Eritrea.

i really can't tell you about the effects on the Horn of Africa, but for one thing, you just gave quite a few more years of life to the Ilkhanate (it will not expire through death by a thousand battles with the Mamluks) and probably also butterflied the later opening for Rum Seljuk dominance. You probably also put additional pressure on the Golden Horde.

Additionally, if there is a Crusader "alliance", that's lots of ports in Egypt open for business with Europe outside Venetian monopoly, and more potential contact of Franks with Ethiopian and Nubian Christians in Alexandria. So the ramifications for the Christian world are massive.

OTOH, Mongol polities all had awful internal stability and a lot of civil wars. I wouldn't expect Mongol Egypt to go any different.
 
Additionally, if there is a Crusader "alliance", that's lots of ports in Egypt open for business with Europe outside Venetian monopoly, and more potential contact of Franks with Ethiopian and Nubian Christians in Alexandria. So the ramifications for the Christian world are massive.
Ethiopia might even be able to centralize and remain stable, especially with maintained contact with Europe through Nubia and Egypt.
 
Ethiopia might even be able to centralize and remain stable, especially with maintained contact with Europe through Nubia and Egypt.

Well, I'm not an expert there (hope someone who knows more about Eastern Africa jumps in and offers some insight), but "centralized" and "stable" are close to the last things I think of when I envision a 13th/14th c. state. European states weren't stable either, just slightly less bad than the Mongols.
 
Well, I'm not an expert there (hope someone who knows more about Eastern Africa jumps in and offers some insight), but "centralized" and "stable" are close to the last things I think of when I envision a 13th/14th c. state. European states weren't stable either, just slightly less bad than the Mongols.
Good point but you might the patchwork being laid for a more stable Ethiopian Empire in the future.
 
What would happen if the Mongols had managed to win the Battle of Ain Jalut and conquered Egypt?

Victory at this battle would not mean conquest of Egypt: you are talking about a relatively small isolated corps left to fight in the area. But if the IlKhanate did manage to conquer Egypt it is quite possible that a vassal kingdom would be established there (just as it was in Lesser Armenia or Georgia). Direct rule is unlikely due to the geographic considerations and climate: Hulagu withdrew from Syria because (by his own admission) the area could not support big numbers of a cavalry. In Egypt situation would probably be similar. If the Crusaders of Outremer were not as idiotic as in OTL, there was a chance for the Yellow Crusade with establishing of a new Crusading Kingdom in Egypt (at least Lower Egypt), which would be a Mongolian vassal (under obligation of paying tribute and participation in the military operations; in both cases the sizes would be pre-defined).

What effects would this have on North and/or Sub-Saharan Africa? I'm particularly interested in what effects this could have on the Horn of Africa, mostly Ethiopia and Eritrea.

I don't see a realistic scenario under which the Mongols would expand that far: Ilkhanate had to fight the wars with the Golden Horde on its Northern border. At best, a limited contingents could be sent to help the local vassal <whoever> in his military expeditions.
 
Egypt will eventually become a Coptic Kingdom. Conquering Egypt essentially means following the Nile where 90%+ of Egyptians lived, the Mongol invasion as always will devastate the Nile Basin which would lead to massive deaths, destruction of farms, essential canals and irrigation, settlements, killing of livestock etc... Pretty much what's happened in Persia that set back the region for centuries, but concentrated around the densely populated Nile where it's effect is even more horrendous.

The Mongols will convert to Coptic Christianity, expand to christian Nubia and Axum, control the red sea trade and later on deposed by a native rebellion...
 
I don't know how far up the Nile the Mongols would go. The terrain might be sandier (might just be stereotypes) than their horses are used to. Around what year would they be attacking to gaining Egypt? I am wondering if they come at a time that allows the Shias to make a comeback or keep in control. Actually, perhaps if the Fatimids are driven to Libya and onwards there could be even more splintering among the Islamic groups. The REAL question is what the Mongols do in Jerusalem. Shut up and pay taxes is likely going to continue to be the way thighs go, while they may like the idea of the old ajewish system where everyone in their religioin (well, adult males at least) paid the Temple once a year. Not like they could reintroduce it, but paying tolls or fees for entryway would be appreciated. Might be some clever person tries to convince people to buy gold, frankincense, and myrrh for pilgrimages. It would be similar to that thing with the temple I mentioned, as the only people with the coins you and to pay were the temple and the money changers. Who charged rather high rates.
 
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