Effects of Interwar Soviet Finland

Suppose there is a way for the reds to win the civil war or the Soviets to come back after like they did in Ukraine, and that the Finnish SSR is the fourth founding member of the USSR in 1922. What does this mean for Scandinavia and the world?

An immediate given is that Sweden would become home to thousands of Finnish refugees (moreso.Fennoswedes), that Sweden would annex Aland after some token local council asks them to, and that Sweden in general might be much more anticommunist and less committed to neutrality, maybe getting in bed early with Hitler.
 
I have always thought Finland going Red in the civil war might lead into pretty significant changes, as that could result in a domino effect of the Baltic states going Red as well, and further into a bigger Soviet effort towards Poland, say. Getting Finland and the Baltics into the USSR from the get-go would make the Soviet Union into a bigger threat in the Baltic Sea area and in general.

Sweden would be affected, like you said by refugees from Finland as well as possibly from the Baltics. The 20s and 30s would be a lot more turbulent in Sweden than IOTL, as we could see both the far left and the far right gaining support due to what happened in the Eastern neighbours.

In the USSR itself, the inclusion of Finland and possibly the Baltic states would mean internal changes, at first significant butterflies for the civil war, and later to how the Soviet state is built. Success in turning these at first counter-revolutionary areas into parts of the Communist camp would probably bolster Soviet ambition and this USSR might be more self-assured and more aggressive in the 20s, more inclined to export the revolution than IOTL. Thus Poland, Hungary and Germany for example might see more Communist agitation and local or general insurrections, supported from Petrograd. This all would mean that Central and Western Europe would see Communism as a bigger threat than IOTL and that would probably mean different changes to the timeline, beginning from a different Western intervention in the Russian Civil War to various divergent policies and actions come the 20s and 30s.

On a local and personal level, we would see many OTL Finnish Reds who fled to the USSR stay in leading positions in Finland instead, and many of them would probably live longer. Also some Soviet politicians, soldiers, apparatchiks etc. might have a career in Finland instead of in Russia or Ukraine, say. On the other side, we would see many people who made a name for themselves in interwar Republic of Finland flee the country to Sweden, to the US or somewhere in Western Europe and South America. Many such people would also end up dead in the hands of the new Red leadership, officially or unofficially.

Personally, for example, I could well imagine both of my grandfathers' fathers ending up dead circa 1918-20, for taking part in the civil war on the White side.
 
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Thank you. I'm intrigued with the possible effects in Poland: Do you think the Soviets have a real chance of victory there in this scenario?

And who would be good communist/anticommunist/fascist agitators in interwar Sweden? I'm no familiar with that at all.
 
The Åland islands might very well be Swedish as a Soviet Finland would not be favoured by the national community.


as for anti communist, there was a Frikår (Freikorps) formed by Bror Munck called "Munchska kåren". It was armed by the Stockholm police apparently without the knowledge of the government.
 
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Thank you. I'm intrigued with the possible effects in Poland: Do you think the Soviets have a real chance of victory there in this scenario?

It is hard to say, as there are many moving parts in the successful Red revolutions in Finland and the Baltics. On balance, I would say the Soviet chances in Poland would be better at least. They wouldn't have to worry about their Western flank in the same way they did IOTL, though we have to remember that by the time of the OTL Soviet-Polish war, the Bolshevik government was at least negotiating about peace with the Finnish and Baltic governments and was not directly threatened by their forces. ITTL, though, the Soviets could probably rustle up some additional troops for different duties from these newly Soviet areas, if not to directly take part in the campaign in Poland, then at least to try and keep order in other parts of the Soviet domains.

As I understand it, one of the problems affecting the Polish campaign was that the Bolsheviks were not exactly secure yet in their home front, as it were, and faced internal rebellions (in big part caused by the food shortages). The inclusion of Finland and the Baltics would shore up the Soviet power base in their campaign against Poland, and given how close to victory the Soviets came IOTL, I don't see it as entirely impossible that they would prevail against Poland ITTL.


And who would be good communist/anticommunist/fascist agitators in interwar Sweden? I'm no familiar with that at all.

This would be more of a question for our Swedish friends as Swedish internal politics is not my strong suit, but with my limited knowledge, for the far left in this timeframe (late 1910s - 1920s) I could suggest some members of the Left Social Democrats like Zeth Höglund, Ture Nerman, Karl Kilbom, Otto Grimlund or Sven Linderot. These people were Lenin's collaborators IOTL, and while the Swedish far left recoiled away from Stalinism for the most part, in a TL where the young Soviet state is considerably stronger they would in turn probably support its goals more strongly, especially if it avoids some of the excesses of OTL Stalinism.

With similar limited knowledge, for the far right, we might look at the Swedish Nazis and militarists. In the first group, names like Barthold Lundén of the Swedish Anti-Semitic Union, or leaders and strongmen of the different fascist or right-wing groups like the Furugård brothers, Konrad Hallgren, Sven Olov Lindholm, Per Engdahl or Elmo Lindholm. We might also expect some OTL "borderline cases" to slip into radicalism ITTL, so there might be unexpected figures, people considered merely conservative, rising to prominence. In the militarist group, Colonel Martin Lindström or Count Eric von Rosen might gain more than OTL prominence. ITTL Lindström would very likely fight in Finland or the Baltics for the White cause, like he did IOTL, and if he avoids dying there, I could well see him organizing a domestic group to battle Communism in Sweden, probably along with White emigrés from Finland and and the Baltic states. The support of right-wing members of the Swedish military would be expected - some possible names could be drawn among those men who took part in the Finnish Civil War as volunteers on the White side, say. People ready to risk life and limb to avoid Red rule in Finland would probably feel even more strongly for their own country's future.

In that vein, one pretty unlikely but certainly historically ironic leader for the Swedish anti-Soviet far right ITTL might be Olof Palme, the eponymous uncle to the famous OTL Social Democrat politician who in 1917-18 was a prime campaigner for forming a Swedish volunteer brigade to fight for the Finnish Whites. If he avoids dying in Finland, he might well have a future as an anti-Communist politician.
 
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