Effects of failed foreign intervention in U.S. civil war?

So, say the civil war in the U.S. occurs like OTL, but a foreign power, like the British and the French intervene, only for the union to stoll win in the end. The civil war is longer and bloodier as a result.

How does this effect the aftermath of the civil war? How is reconstruction effected? And let's say because of butterflies, Lincoln lives a long life.
 
Well, if Britain intervened, the Emancipation Proclamation would be an enormous embarrassment to them, as they would now be cast around the world as a defender of slavery rather than an advocate of its abolition. This would surely be a political catastrophe for Palmerston and his government. It would also be a disaster for the French if they chose to intervene, as Prussia might be even more emboldened to pursue an aggressive policy in Europe. As for the outcome of the war, I really doubt the war itself would be affected too much. The British and French would be very reluctant to insert troops into a war that had up to then astounded the world with its death toll. On top of that, Lee's invasions of the North were destined to fail, and nothing could save Vicksburg. Grant, or someone like him, would have ended up in charge and the South would have been devastated regardless.
 
Renewed anger with Britain and France could me we increase our trade with Germany, or the ottomans. We could see a CP USA which would almost certainly see a CP victory
 
The U.S. might keep a larger standing military going into the late 19th Century. It also might adopt a more anti-British/French foreign policy. That's going to have huge knock on effects going into the 20th Century.
 
The U.S. might keep a larger standing military going into the late 19th Century. It also might adopt a more anti-British/French foreign policy. That's going to have huge knock on effects going into the 20th Century.

US as the liberator of the colonies?
 
British intervention was extremely unlikely after the emancipation proclamation. Most PODs for this have it occurring in 1862 (still unlikely but not ridiculously so). Yeah, if Lincoln does something like the proclamation afterwards is embarrassing for the British government and the war is unpopular in the UK, but that could be one reason for the American victory.

Britain loses several if not all Canadian provinces to the USA. If they avoid a revolution, the Tories, who were more pro-Union come to power. This would butterfly the 1867 electoral reform legislation, though there well could be some alternative version. It does butterfly the entire 1868-74 Gladstone government.

Napoleon III has to get out of Mexico and more or less agrees to be a constitutional monarchy to stay as Emperor but then both happened IOTL. France actually might benefit from finding out hte weaknesses in their military when fighting against an industrialized power before the Franco-Prussian War. I don't think Napoleon III is removed because they can always rationalize the defeat by blaming it on Britain.

USA gets to near superpower status much earlier. Lincoln is in no danger of not being re-elected in 1864 and the Democrats may even decide not to nominate a candidate at all or to just nominate Lincoln as well. If they nominate a candidate, there is no chance of anything like a peace plank making its way into the platform and they will campaign exclusively on domestic issues. Lincoln's assassination is probably butterflied away. The chances also improve of the Confederate civilian leaders agreeing to surrender, probably they will get an amnesty in return (eventually they got an amnesty IOTL).

World War I may be butteflied away. It will depend mostly on if the Franco-Prussian War is butteflied away.
 
The US is devastated demographically. The war OTL was worse than than WW1 was for the British. TTL, I imagine that the casualties will be more in line with France, in the end. So you have that playing in as well. The US will be exhausted... And may take a line that is reminiscent of France after the war - no quarter given.

This demographic crunch will really hurt the US, as the OTL Civil War caused the US to pull inwards. But, here, the US has been shown that it cannot successfully and safely do so, so it must retain a military force that can ward off foreign aggression and it must eliminate avenues for aggression as well.

In the event of US victory in the war, I imagine that the southern states were forcefully reincorporated against the British. After all, the rebellion now has transitioned to open treason with the support of foreign adversaries. At best, the reconquered states might be offered leniency if they return to the union and fight against the foreigners. The ones that do not return (the deep south) will end up being treated far more harshly than the others.

On top of that, at least the prairie provinces will be taken, along with the Pacific Northwest, as the US cannot risk a resumption of hostilities in that theater. Lower Ontario may be another region that the US desires, and border provinces may be annexed. Simultaneously, Quebec may be liberated as an allied republic in the north. Ideally, the US would prefer ownership of the Lakes in total, but everything else could go to this larger Quebec. As for the Maritimes/Newfoundland, these are most easily held by Britain, and simultaneously they would be one avenue the US could prepare for. Aside for some border adjustment, I don't see these being taken as peace would be sued for and the US would be tired of war once the country is liberated and Canada falls to the west.

This US would, at a minimum, be forced to update and maintain its fortifications and maintain a navy. It owuldn't have much more than a few ocean-going cruisers, but I definitely see it expanding its monitor fleet ot be second to none, making the mainland effectively impregnable to most oceangoing vessels for decades. This would be interesting come the time of the Virginius affair, if something like that occurs TTL, as the US would be well suited and well-inclined to assist the Cubans this time around.

Reconcilliation is not impossible, though it becomes much harder. If anything, I imagine the US being anti-European intervention in general. So they'd be supportive of Germany, but only in the sense that they'd oppose British expansion.

At the same time, the US would be very enthusiastic in maintaining its sphere once it does venture out. It may be more enthusiastic about pressing its Guano Island claims, with Hawai'i, etc, as it cannot allow the British a Pacific equivalent to Bermuda to raid the West Coast again. As for the other claims, once the US gets its feet back under itself, combined with a much stronger navy, it could be more aggressive. That's where any Germany alignment is called into question as the two are competing in the Pacific and Germany wanted to expand in Latin America OTL. That has to be addressed before anything else happens.
 
World War I may be butteflied away. It will depend mostly on if the Franco-Prussian War is butteflied away.

If France is chastened enough, it may not feel secure enough to even challenge the Hohenzollern-Sigmaringen candidacy in Spain, and therefore no Franco-Prussian War. In that case I suspect that France, the Catholic German states and Austria would begin to align together and Prussia/NGC would continue to be friendly with Russia.
 
The US is devastated demographically. The war OTL was worse than than WW1 was for the British. TTL, I imagine that the casualties will be more in line with France, in the end. So you have that playing in as well. The US will be exhausted... And may take a line that is reminiscent of France after the war - no quarter given.

This demographic crunch will really hurt the US, as the OTL Civil War caused the US to pull inwards. But, here, the US has been shown that it cannot successfully and safely do so, so it must retain a military force that can ward off foreign aggression and it must eliminate avenues for aggression as well.

In the event of US victory in the war, I imagine that the southern states were forcefully reincorporated against the British. After all, the rebellion now has transitioned to open treason with the support of foreign adversaries. At best, the reconquered states might be offered leniency if they return to the union and fight against the foreigners. The ones that do not return (the deep south) will end up being treated far more harshly than the others.

On top of that, at least the prairie provinces will be taken, along with the Pacific Northwest, as the US cannot risk a resumption of hostilities in that theater. Lower Ontario may be another region that the US desires, and border provinces may be annexed. Simultaneously, Quebec may be liberated as an allied republic in the north. Ideally, the US would prefer ownership of the Lakes in total, but everything else could go to this larger Quebec. As for the Maritimes/Newfoundland, these are most easily held by Britain, and simultaneously they would be one avenue the US could prepare for. Aside for some border adjustment, I don't see these being taken as peace would be sued for and the US would be tired of war once the country is liberated and Canada falls to the west.

This US would, at a minimum, be forced to update and maintain its fortifications and maintain a navy. It owuldn't have much more than a few ocean-going cruisers, but I definitely see it expanding its monitor fleet ot be second to none, making the mainland effectively impregnable to most oceangoing vessels for decades. This would be interesting come the time of the Virginius affair, if something like that occurs TTL, as the US would be well suited and well-inclined to assist the Cubans this time around.

Reconcilliation is not impossible, though it becomes much harder. If anything, I imagine the US being anti-European intervention in general. So they'd be supportive of Germany, but only in the sense that they'd oppose British expansion.

At the same time, the US would be very enthusiastic in maintaining its sphere once it does venture out. It may be more enthusiastic about pressing its Guano Island claims, with Hawai'i, etc, as it cannot allow the British a Pacific equivalent to Bermuda to raid the West Coast again. As for the other claims, once the US gets its feet back under itself, combined with a much stronger navy, it could be more aggressive. That's where any Germany alignment is called into question as the two are competing in the Pacific and Germany wanted to expand in Latin America OTL. That has to be addressed before anything else happens.

So im guessing it's not looking good for the japanese empire?
 
Since, this is picking up comments, does anyone care to share ideas of how reconstruction and/or the plight of black people changes here?
 
Since, this is picking up comments, does anyone care to share ideas of how reconstruction and/or the plight of black people changes here?
Hard to say. Lincoln's reconstruction plan was moderate, and with the 10% plan and a protection of non-slave property, almost weaker than Johnson. But at the same time, these rebells just dragged America into a war with Great Britain (or france). That's gonna piss people off, even moderates.
Or perhaps he could give swathes of Canada and other newly acquired possessions out in a sort of homestead act specifically for african americans.
 
Any specific individual happening is an astronomically improbable event.
The tiniest change will make that individual a different person, or non-existent.
 
Any specific individual happening is an astronomically improbable event.
The tiniest change will make that individual a different person, or non-existent.

Even if we take for granted that FF gets born and is roughly the same person as OTL, it's highly likely that the specific turns of events that led both to the alliance structure being what it was on the eve of WWI and the Serbian dissatisfaction that led to FF's assassination wouldn't happen.

For example, in @TastySpam's Confederate TL the alt-Russo-Turkish War of 1877 just ended with Serbia, Montenegro and AH partitioning Bosnia, with the former two getting the Lions share and AH contenting itself with just a few Croatian-majority border areas. That alone probably would have diffused Serbian discontent enough to ensure no assassination attempt.
 
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