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This is my first post. :D

It's a staple of Confederate victory scenarios that slavery is abolished in the Spanish Caribbean colonies and Brazil in the same timeframe as OTL, and this moves the Confederate States to reform slavery despite it being explicitly forbidden. But doesn't this ignore the political and ideological ramifications of slavery being vindicated by Confederate independence? It's pretty easy to imagine the ideological fallout of the South's success stunting the influence of abolitionists and bolstering the position of the slave owning class in the other slaveholding countries of the Americas. And with the other major example of an American state interfering with slavery ending badly and literally tearing that country apart, wouldn't the political will to act against slavery in Brazil be crippled?

Basically, instead of abolition in Brazil pressuring the CSA to get with the times, like in most timelines, wouldn't it be the other way around?
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