Effects of China not suffering from Mongols?

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Deleted member 1487

Assuming the Mongols never manage to unify and turn outward, what impact would that have on Chinese dominance in Asia or their ability to modernize and stay relevant in the world?
 

jahenders

Banned
It, of course, depends on the timing. But China had a long history of internal dissension, civil wars, etc from time to time, so they often limited themselves.

Also, they dealt with many other barbarian tribes other than the Mongols -- the Hsing-Nu, etc. So, if the Mongols didn't become the problem, someone else likely would have.

Assuming the Mongols never manage to unify and turn outward, what impact would that have on Chinese dominance in Asia or their ability to modernize and stay relevant in the world?
 

Deleted member 1487

It, of course, depends on the timing. But China had a long history of internal dissension, civil wars, etc from time to time, so they often limited themselves.

Also, they dealt with many other barbarian tribes other than the Mongols -- the Hsing-Nu, etc. So, if the Mongols didn't become the problem, someone else likely would have.
I've read recently that the Song period marked the decline of the Chinese that that really never have seemed to recover from and the cause was the Mongols and the damage they did with their invasion. No other threat before had done the damage that the Mongols were able to and much of what came after were the result of the Mongols, so while it doesn't mean that there would be no other damaging threats, but its hard to imagine one that was has horrifically crippling as the Mongols.
 
The issue about "Mongols" is that it's not just the Mongols, but every possible warlike, nomadic group that could threaten the integrity of an incompetent dynasty. Generally, when the Chinese have their act together, nomads aren't an issue. It's only when internal corruption, ossification, and general idiocy arises that the external threat becomes dangerous.
 

Cryostorm

Monthly Donor
Without the Mongols you might actually have a smaller China than the one we have today since China had been split into a large southern kingdom, the Southern Song, and multiple northern kingdoms ruled by formerly nomadic but assimilated people. The Mongols changed this by reuniting China and then preceding to use its strength to assert Mongol/Chinese dominance over its neighbors and enlarging China itself, a tactic that the Manchu Qing used to create China's modern borders.

So without the Mongols you might have large to middle sized nations in modern Northern China and Mongolia while in the south you could have a large and prosperous nation based onto proto-industry and trade along with independent nations such as Tibet, East Turkestan, and Dali, modern southwest China.
 
China was already suffering from the Khitans, and after that, the Jurchens. My point is that rival nations like the Khitans, the Tanguts, the Jurchens and the Mongols were not the root of Chinese suffering. The real problem is the Song Dynasty's chronically military weakness, which was an institutional and geopolitical problem.

IMO, without the Mongols wiping out the Jurchen Jin and Tanguts Xixia China would never have been united again in the form of Ming. and we run the risk of having a permanent North/South political division in China.

I do not believe that the Song would have an industrial revolution. The failure of Wang Anshi reforms has already proven that Song bureaucracy could not support a society based on commercial rules. And with the rise of Zhu Xi and other members of the Cheng-Zhu school neo-Confucian philosophers, the Song society itself was turning inward and backwards by the time the Mongols invaded.
 
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GdwnsnHo

Banned
The mongols did really stabilize the area, and fought the long slog to unite China as a unit. So I'd have to agree with the others that you wouldn't see a united china in the short term without a Steppe power.

However, the North Chinese Plain really can't function without being united. It begs to be a single polity in terms of natural borders, enforcing control, etc. But, with the North constantly under threat from the powerful nomadic tribes, then even if united, they'd be hard pressed to conquer the Southern Song without dealing with the nomads decisively first.

In the meantime, the Song could well collapse, and reemerge more efficient than before, or continue their stagnation - I personally don't see why they'd cut themselves off from their trade revenue - especially against a united North. They can at least use the money to develop their territories further, and increase their defenses.

Long term division of the North and South could well become the norm.
 
Assuming the Mongols never manage to unify and turn outward, what impact would that have on Chinese dominance in Asia or their ability to modernize and stay relevant in the world?

Without Mongol unification, the whole area would still be under Jin control (however nominal). You'd have the typical North-South arrangement in China - a North China plains power which on land is much more powerful than the Southern power, and a South China power that is dependent on its riverine navy and fortresses to shield itself against northern invasions.

Historical analogy would suggest that eventually, the Jin would be able to use its military superiority to capture most of the Han River and Sichuan fortresses (Xiangyang/Chengdu etc.), build a strong navy to contest the Yangtze, and successfully conquer the Song. It wouldn't be so much a 'barbarian' invasion, however, as with the passage of time the Jin would probably get assimilated in with the Chinese population and so this new Jin dynasty will be a Chinese-Jurchen mixed state.

One could then argue that such mixed-states would bring about a more 'martial' edge to Chinese culture (just as the Chinese-Xianbei state of the Sui/Tang did), and so you'd see the dynasty begin a new round of expansion into the steppe and Central Asia.
 
In the meantime, the Song could well collapse, and reemerge more efficient than before, or continue their stagnation - I personally don't see why they'd cut themselves off from their trade revenue - especially against a united North. They can at least use the money to develop their territories further, and increase their defenses.

Long term division of the North and South could well become the norm.

While I agree that the North and South division could well become the norm, it was based on the assumption that Song could remain stable. Any kind of Song collapse would definitely be exploited by the Jurchen Jin (or its successor state) .

In the previous Preriod of Disunion, the collapse of Liang after Hou Jing Rebellion was ruthlessly exploited by its two northern neighbors, namely the Northern Qi and Northern Zhou, and the succeeding Chen Dynasty had much smaller territories, and was soon defeated by the unified Sui.

One could then argue that such mixed-states would bring about a more 'martial' edge to Chinese culture (just as the Chinese-Xianbei state of the Sui/Tang did), and so you'd see the dynasty begin a new round of expansion into the steppe and Central Asia.
By the end of the dynasty, Jin had already acquired some the ailment its southern neighbor suffered from. Jin's paper money, for instance, was under severe hyperinflation, while its rulers had "given up the advantages in horse skills which they had as barbarians, while acquiring the the useless, luxurious customs of the Middle Kingdom." (舍戎狄鞍馬之長,而從事中州浮靡之習. )

Perhaps Jin had to undergo vigorous internal changes in order to revitalize itself , much like how Northern Wei split itself into Western and Eastern Wei, which in turn became Northern Qi and Northern Zhou, and after a palace coup, re-formed itself under Sui.

The other problem with a Jin unification of China is, given that the Former Song was wealthier and more populous than Jin proper, the Jin conquerors might be forced to practice Song laws on former Song land, in effect setting up a dual track system just like what the Mongols did IOTL. And if you have a similar system, you would suffer from similar problems.
 
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