Effects of China losing a 1979 war with the USSR?

Regarding the break up of the Soviet Union in this scenario, if things go nuclear in the war, how does this change the situation with the Ukrainian nukes? My gut says they’re less likely to give them up.
 
Regarding the break up of the Soviet Union in this scenario, if things go nuclear in the war, how does this change the situation with the Ukrainian nukes? My gut says they’re less likely to give them up.
I think so to, assuming they have not been used of course.
 
Quick query: how precisely does the war end? Because it’s one thing if the Soviets manage to thrash the Chinese into a white peace with no changes in power and quite another if the Soviet victories also see’s a different faction of the CCP seize control.
 

Manman

Banned
The ussr will probably keep itself together only losing the Baltics. Apart from them everyone else left only when a second Russian civil war was a possibility. If the ussr wins they would want to stay especially the central Asian regions which would want protection from china. Also china would probably not be the industrial juggernut it is in our world with it having more internal problems.
 
Reading this thread reminds me of one of Dunnigans old 1970s war games 'The China War'. Still have my copy. The game had a lot of sub scenarios; China vs Viet Nam; ROC invades PR China (a joke), PRC invades ROC (not doable with 1970s PRC Navy). but, the main event was a series of scenarios for China vs the USSR. These ran a spectrum from a abrupt surprise war with little mobilization by either side, to a full fledged war & full mobilization at the start. The Maps was strategic, but the gem operational & covered only a few months. All the China vs USSR scenarios assumed the use of atomic & chemical weapons.

The short version is the USSR was able to destroy the 1970s/early1980s Chinese armies. The Soviet forces could easily overrun the outer sparsely inhabited provides, and Manchuria. However the Soviets did not want to get into the home turf of the Sons of Han. Between overextending their logistics, and fighting in a very deep sea of guerillias & peoples militia isolated Soviet armies would run out of ammo, fuel, and eventually men.

The designer terminated the game time in under a year. Trying to predict the effects of large-scale use of atomic weapons, the collapse of Chinas infrastructure, the damage to Soviet infrastructure, disease, famine, foreign intervention, was beyond his scope.
 

James G

Gone Fishin'
Oh most definitely, also any bioweapons they have will be released at that point. But the OP said that didn't happen. Also St. Petersburg/Leningrad is getting few as a F U to the USSR I assume.
Moscow had ABM defences and Chinese ICBMs weren't exactly the best. Maybe they get through but I doubt it.
 
Moscow had ABM defences and Chinese ICBMs weren't exactly the best. Maybe they get through but I doubt it.

The problem is that at the time IRC the only ICBM in chinese possession needed a lot of preparation before being ready to fire; enough that unless they shot first (and the preparation remain undetected...and that's the problem) they will be destoyed first as they will be target of primary importance for the Soviets.
In general european Russia will be not targeted, with the low amount of nuclear weapons available, the chinese will concentrate on target that they can realistically hit plus any serious concentration of troops and logistical hub at the border.
But in general i doubt that nuclear weapons will start to fly on the immediate, unless Moscow get Washington on board...due to the high risk involved in a massive first launch
 
You're thinking Carter would stand out as more prone to help the Taipei regime than other Presidents in his time and place?
He always was more a humanitarian the all others. A bleeding heart if you will. Others would be in it to prevent any remaining nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons from falling into the wrong hands. Then the Piracy issue. China and the USSR will be Somalia circa 1995 writ large. The West and its Asian allies will have to do something to stop that.
 
The problem is that at the time IRC the only ICBM in chinese possession needed a lot of preparation before being ready to fire; enough that unless they shot first (and the preparation remain undetected...and that's the problem) they will be destoyed first as they will be target of primary importance for the Soviets.
In general european Russia will be not targeted, with the low amount of nuclear weapons available, the chinese will concentrate on target that they can realistically hit plus any serious concentration of troops and logistical hub at the border.
But in general i doubt that nuclear weapons will start to fly on the immediate, unless Moscow get Washington on board...due to the high risk involved in a massive first launch

I'd agree there for strategic weapons. Tactical nukes were integral to Soviet operational doctrine. My take is they would be using them, and chemical weapons, tom the first minutes of battle to 'neutralize' the large numbers of Chinese soldiery operating in Manchuria & other preriphrial regions.
 
I'd agree there for strategic weapons. Tactical nukes were integral to Soviet operational doctrine. My take is they would be using them, and chemical weapons, tom the first minutes of battle to 'neutralize' the large numbers of Chinese soldiery operating in Manchuria & other preriphrial regions.

nuclear weapons are too problematic and dangerous politically, operational doctrine notwithstanding; chemical weapons are more probable
 
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