Effects of Bonapartiste restoration on pre-WWI European politics

From my "Prince Imperial Lives" thread, here's wolfbrother's scenario.

Possibly. It would depend on the exact chronology of events.

Do you mean a Bonaparte upon the throne of Spain, or simply a Bonapartist House within Spain?

EDIT: Here's a rough sketch of a TL:

1879: POD, Napoléon lives
1880: Napoléon returns to Britain. He and Marie are married within the year.
1881: Birth of Napoléon and Marie's first son Louis-Napoléon (Napoléon V)
1883: Birth of a second son, Victor-Napoléon
-
1898: Napoléon V, under an alias, volunteers for the Spanish and gains military experience fighting in the Spanish-American War
1899: Death of President Félix Faure during the Dreyfus Affair. Napoléon launches his coup, though he's thwarted by a similar effort made by Prince Philippe, Duke of Orléans. The Third Republic survives, just barely. Alfred Dreyfus is NOT given a second trial.
1900-1901: French Civil War between Bonapartists, Orléanists, and republicans. Ultimately Napoléon IV is able to take Paris and institute the Third Empire.
1903: Marriage of Napoléon V to Princess Patricia of Connaught and Victor-Napoléon to Infanta Maria Teresa of Spain, securing France's ties to its two closest allies.

So, how does this affect prewar (assuming the war happens before 1918) European politics? CP-to-be gets a bit jittery, UK and Spain thrilled, not so sure about Russia. Perhaps the French military gets upgraded earlier?
 
This level of turmoil in France could butterfly away the Anglo-French Entente. IOTL, it followed out of the Fadosha Incident, where despite conflicting interests and policies neither side wanted war with the other, so the war scare lead to continued talks to resolve other points of contention. ITTL, there's a coup attempt and a civil war in France just after the Fadosha Incident, and the Third Empire regime once it's in power is probably going to be afraid of looking weak if it makes too many foreign policy concessions.

Even without the Entente, Britain would still be inclined to intervene over violation of Belgian neutrality and would still consider Germany a strategic threat for several reasons, but would now only have two major things pushing for intervention rather than three. I don't think Britain would stay neutral, but they might delay declaration of war and might not commit as fully to the war effort as IOTL.
 
This level of turmoil in France could butterfly away the Anglo-French Entente. IOTL, it followed out of the Fadosha Incident, where despite conflicting interests and policies neither side wanted war with the other, so the war scare lead to continued talks to resolve other points of contention. ITTL, there's a coup attempt and a civil war in France just after the Fadosha Incident, and the Third Empire regime once it's in power is probably going to be afraid of looking weak if it makes too many foreign policy concessions.

Even without the Entente, Britain would still be inclined to intervene over violation of Belgian neutrality and would still consider Germany a strategic threat for several reasons, but would now only have two major things pushing for intervention rather than three. I don't think Britain would stay neutral, but they might delay declaration of war and might not commit as fully to the war effort as IOTL.

There would be other butterflies well before 1914 though. Any thoughts on hat position if any the Kaiser would take on the French civil war, and might landgrabs result from it?
 
There would be other butterflies well before 1914 though. Any thoughts on hat position if any the Kaiser would take on the French civil war, and might landgrabs result from it?

I think the Kaiser would support the monarchists, as he was a supporter of monarchy. I don't think he would try any landgrabs; Britain and Russia would likely warn him against action, and Wilhelm wasn't that stupid.

Perhaps we may see less French aid to Russia, as they recover from a destructive civil war. This may mean more losses in the Russo-Japanese War, and possibly an earlier Russian Civil War. That would have enormous effects on Europe as a whole, and makes it really hard to predict what happens after due to the chaotic nature of revolutions.
 
I think the Kaiser would support the monarchists, as he was a supporter of monarchy. I don't think he would try any landgrabs; Britain and Russia would likely warn him against action, and Wilhelm wasn't that stupid.

Perhaps we may see less French aid to Russia, as they recover from a destructive civil war. This may mean more losses in the Russo-Japanese War, and possibly an earlier Russian Civil War. That would have enormous effects on Europe as a whole, and makes it really hard to predict what happens after due to the chaotic nature of revolutions.

But couldn't this alter the Morocco situation, thereby butterflying some of the impetus for the world war?
 
It depends on the course Nappy IV takes. In many TLs he imitates his great-uncle more than his father and tries the European dominion thing all over again instead of more logically sucking up to Britain.
 
It depends on the course Nappy IV takes. In many TLs he imitates his great-uncle more than his father and tries the European dominion thing all over again instead of more logically sucking up to Britain.

That seems... quite out of his OTL personality.

This level of turmoil in France could butterfly away the Anglo-French Entente. [...]

The foundations for the entente stretch back all the way to the Crimean War. I'm not sure why Victoria's favored 'adopted son' reclaiming his 'rightful throne' would hurt Franco-British relations. IOTL the Brits got on just as well, or better, with the Second Empire as they did with the Third Republic.
 
I think the Kaiser would support the monarchists, as he was a supporter of monarchy. I don't think he would try any landgrabs; Britain and Russia would likely warn him against action, and Wilhelm wasn't that stupid.

Perhaps we may see less French aid to Russia, as they recover from a destructive civil war. This may mean more losses in the Russo-Japanese War, and possibly an earlier Russian Civil War. That would have enormous effects on Europe as a whole, and makes it really hard to predict what happens after due to the chaotic nature of revolutions.

IMHO he'll support the monarchists, however he might prefer Orleanists over Bonapartists. Certainly no landgrabs in Europe, but the areas (protectorates and colonies (or rather colonial claims)) IOTL disputed between France and the German Empire would be German.
Regarding the great European powers, they probably would stay out of the conflict unless one of them has already entered the conflict.
 
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