Effects of an earlier Operation Ichigo and Japan betting everything on China

What if instead of attacking Pearl Harbor reasonable voices that saw that attacking the US would be the destruction of Japan prevailed and Japan instead took the desicion to go all-out on China to finish it off?

I mean, the entire reason for PH was to get the resources to continue the war in China anyway. So what if the Japanese just decide to bet everything on China and either bring it down or die trying?

I didn't set a specific date for Ichigo because I honestly have no idea what is the earliest date possible. But let's suppose they do it in the earliest date possible.

What would be the outcome?
 
Ichi-Go was in 1944 and made because of US involvement, but didn't muhc for the end result.... There was no "all-out" option anymore.

The Second Sino-Japanese war had gone into a stalemate before anything about their tactics to go after the Us and the pacific had changed. They did go all-out against China, they thought they could score an overwhelming victory. Turned out the Chinese didn't agree with that. There aren't more resources or troops Japan could pour into China to make it work better, or get better results.

Best the japanese could do was install a puppet state in the occupied territory in 1939/1940.
 
Ichi-Go was in 1944 and made because of US involvement, but didn't muhc for the end result.... There was no "all-out" option anymore.

The Second Sino-Japanese war had gone into a stalemate before anything about their tactics to go after the Us and the pacific had changed. They did go all-out against China, they thought they could score an overwhelming victory. Turned out the Chinese didn't agree with that. There aren't more resources or troops Japan could pour into China to make it work better, or get better results.

Best the japanese could do was install a puppet state in the occupied territory in 1939/1940.

It was horrible PR for Chiang, also I have seen Ichigo being credited for, at least in part, Mao winning the civil war because it fucked up the KMT army.

Maybe they could not do better than Ichigo as an all-out assault, but perhaps if it was done earlier it could had eventually knocked China out of the war? Or at least have Chiang negotiate a settlement.
 
I'm no expert on this war. But what i know is that the Chinese were tough, numberous and home. They inflicted heavy casualties on the Japanese in some of the most important battles, and were able to deny the Japanese a strategic upperhand. For what the japanese wanted, they didn't have the strength. Tactically they bested the Chinese, but for strategic operations like Ichi-Go the Chinese were simply too good. Its basically the same as with the Pacific war. Strategically they bit off more than they could chew.
 

raharris1973

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Yeah but Ichigo showed that the Japanese were capable of taking more of China than they took in 1937 and 1938 and then sat on for most of the war. In 1944 and 1945 they showed they could take additional substantial parts of China and push the KMT aside.

They conquered the Hunan rice bowl and created continuous ground-lines of communication between Manchuria, Canton and the border of Indochina with Ichigo.

Could they have done this earlier in the war? If not, why not?

Was KMT China suffering from an internal rot in 1944 that had not quite set in by 1939, 1940, 1941, or 1942?

That's part of what makes this actually a very good question.
 
Even if they conquer China they're still fucked. As long as the China Lobby stays strong the US would still keep up sanctions. Even with all of China's resources under Japanese control it doesn't't make up for the loss of Western/US oil, tankerage and refining capacity. Nor does it make up for Japan's continually diminishing foreign exchange reserves and bleak export/import ratio.

That's what forced the Japanese to plan and make their strikes against the west. They couldn't't win the war against China and keep their economy afloat if Western sanctions remained in place. Even with control of East Indian oil and refineries the Japanese need couldn't be met. They hoped they could secure their eastern and southern flank and force a peace where the US would accept their conquests and remove sanctions.
 
What if instead of attacking Pearl Harbor reasonable voices that saw that attacking the US would be the destruction of Japan prevailed and Japan instead took the desicion to go all-out on China to finish it off?

I mean, the entire reason for PH was to get the resources to continue the war in China anyway. So what if the Japanese just decide to bet everything on China and either bring it down or die trying?

I didn't set a specific date for Ichigo because I honestly have no idea what is the earliest date possible. But let's suppose they do it in the earliest date possible.

What would be the outcome?

What ultimately became Ichi-Go was planned for 1942, but ended up being cancelled due to the disaster at Midway and the need to reinforce the fringes of the outer defense perimeter, in particular the Southwest Pacific (Solomons, etc). As it was, Ichi-Go very nearly destroyed the Chinese as a fighting force, overrunning vast areas of rice and other crop production that engendered a famine and which nearly forced the Chinese out due to starvation.
 

raharris1973

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What ultimately became Ichi-Go was planned for 1942, but ended up being cancelled due to the disaster at Midway and the need to reinforce the fringes of the outer defense perimeter, in particular the Southwest Pacific (Solomons, etc). As it was, Ichi-Go very nearly destroyed the Chinese as a fighting force, overrunning vast areas of rice and other crop production that engendered a famine and which nearly forced the Chinese out due to starvation.

Source?

I thought the thing they were planning in 1942 wasn't the north-south Ichigo offensive but was supposed to be a westward offensive against Chongqing.

Now to answer the OP:

What if instead of attacking Pearl Harbor reasonable voices that saw that attacking the US would be the destruction of Japan prevailed and Japan instead took the desicion to go all-out on China to finish it off?

I mean, the entire reason for PH was to get the resources to continue the war in China anyway. So what if the Japanese just decide to bet everything on China and either bring it down or die trying?

I didn't set a specific date for Ichigo because I honestly have no idea what is the earliest date possible. But let's suppose they do it in the earliest date possible.

What would be the outcome?


I would think that Japan would have been capable of launching Ichigo as its 1941 or 1942 campaign and making gains similar to OTL.

I mean sure, from August 1941 onward they would be under embargo, but that couldn't have made conditions worse than when they did it historically in OTL 1944-1945 and were under tight blockade. The only way Ichigo is harder in 42 than 45 is if Indies oil and confiscated Allied shipping made it possible.

After making the Ichigo gains in 1942, Japanese forces are not too far from the Chinese end of the Burma Road. In 1943 they could invade Yunnan and cut China off from the outside world. The USSR would be in no position to offer help until its war with Germany is over. Even while embargoed itself, Japan would be blockading China and directing any trade Chinese do to the Japanese themselves.
 
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