Effects of an earlier death of Tito on the fate of Yugoslavia

The prevailing opinion at this platform about Yugoslavia is that the lack of Perestroika couldn't prevent its dissolution because hints for fragmentation came quite clearly right after Tito's death 1980 and that therefore Perestroika only accelerated but didn't cause the process.

Now making the USSR cling to the old ways for another twenty years just by not having Gorbachev is one thing. Therefore this isn't an option. An earlier death of Tito would be so much easier.

So what if Tito died e.g. at some time between 1965 and 1970? Living long enough for international merits, but also longer time for the Yugoslavs to make shit hit the fan without any wind from Moscow?
 
1968...

It would be fascinating to have Tito die in early 1968 and have the succession runbling on alongside the Prague Spring and the French student riots. It would certainly have made for an in teresting few months.

Spiljak (pardon my spelling) was Prime Minister but my guess is Petar Stambolic would have taken over for a while. Yugoslavia was a big part of the emerging Non-Aligned Movement and I suspect there would have been very little change in foreign policy.

Whether the forces which split Yugoslavia apart in the 1990s would have manifested themselves had there still been a USSR is less clear. I think one of the classic WW3 scenarios (and one Hackett used in his book) had Russian forces supporting a Serb incursion into Croatia and Slovenia and this leading to a general conflict across the NATO-Warsaw Pact border.

The fact that the dissolution of Yugoslavia post rather than pre dated the break up of the USSR suggests the internal cohesion of the Yugoslav state would have continued even if Tito had died 15 or more years earlier.
 

abc123

Banned
Well, IMO, Never mind if Tito died in 1970. pretty much would Yugoslaia go as OTL until the end of Cold War and downfall of communism in Eastern Europe, and after that it will collapse as OTL.
 
Well, IMO, Never mind if Tito died in 1970. pretty much would Yugoslaia go as OTL until the end of Cold War and downfall of communism in Eastern Europe, and after that it will collapse as OTL.

Not necessary. The problem was that Tito's death was quickly followed by economic troubles, realization that communism doesn't work and quick replacement of communism with nationalism.

had Tito died earlier when things were OKish it wouldgo different way. In 1970s you had an upsurge of reformists (simialr to Czech spring of 1968). If ito is gone by then or shortly after ugoslavia could be reformed on more confederal manner,which would improve economic conditions as well.
 

abc123

Banned
Not necessary. The problem was that Tito's death was quickly followed by economic troubles, realization that communism doesn't work and quick replacement of communism with nationalism.

had Tito died earlier when things were OKish it wouldgo different way. In 1970s you had an upsurge of reformists (simialr to Czech spring of 1968). If ito is gone by then or shortly after ugoslavia could be reformed on more confederal manner,which would improve economic conditions as well.

Problem is that Tito was sui generis person. Nobody else in Yugoslavia would have the carisma or authority to replace him.
Serbs would probalba try to reinstate Ranković. Other republic probably wouldn't agree with that.
Position of JNA is also very intreting, what will she do without its Marshal?
So, some sort of compromise must e found. IMO it will be some sort of IOTL solution from 1971 constitutional amendments, because all else would take country into internal conflicts, Soviet intervention and dissolution.
But when one day that threat of Eastern bloc intervention dissapiers, then Yugoslavia would be in great problems. About economy, economy of Yugoslavia was mainly based on 3 things:
a) foreign credits ( mainly western )
b) turism in Croatia and some export industry in Croatia and Slovenia that mainly exported in Second and Third World countries
c) foreign currency that workers ( big part of them from Croatia ) from Yugoslavia send home from Germany;)
 
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