Effects of an earlier British EEC entry on the British auto industry

The claim that, for all its other problems, the decline of of BMC was due to expansion in anticipation of the application to the EEC being accepted when De Gaulle rejected it IOTL seems to make sense. With the money invested in the expansion that was slammed shut, BMC was denied an economy of scale and had less to invest in its production, leading to the Leyland merger and subsequent downward spiral that is well known.

The question I'm wondering is how great an improvement for BMC/BMH (and by extension, the whole UK auto industry) the EEC accession would have actually been if it had been accepted at the time. Could it (in addition to any other political effects) have saved BMC?
 
I don't think the fundamental problems go away. Joining the EEC makes British cars more attractive on price to continental consumers, but equally the British car manufacturers will now face more competition in their domestic market as EEC imports are cheaper. The overall effect is to increase competition as trade barriers are lower. Ultimately, therefore, what is going to matter is which manufacturer makes the cars that people want to buy. And unfortunately for Britain, the answer wasn't ours.
 
I don't think the fundamental problems go away. Joining the EEC makes British cars more attractive on price to continental consumers, but equally the British car manufacturers will now face more competition in their domestic market as EEC imports are cheaper. The overall effect is to increase competition as trade barriers are lower. Ultimately, therefore, what is going to matter is which manufacturer makes the cars that people want to buy. And unfortunately for Britain, the answer wasn't ours.

The argument is that a spurt of sales thanks to lower prices in the early 1960s, when they're at their greatest heights technologically compared to their continental competitors, will turn the capacity upgrades into a positive rather than a negative, give them more money for badly needed investment, and thus give them a shot at fixing the "fundamental problems" that they didn't get IOTL.

What I don't know enough about European cars of the time to comment on is whether or not that spurt is actually going to happen. Would it, or was the extra capacity was just too overambitious, EEC or not?
 
If it helps, this is the total British production of passenger cars from 1955 to 1974 in thousands. The source was the British Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) via the Encyclopaedia Britannica Books of the Year from the period:

1955 897
1956 707
1957 860
1958 1,051
1959 1,190
1960 1,352
1961 1,004
1962 1,249
1963 1,607
1964 1,867
1965 1,722
1966 1,603
1967 1,552
1968 1,815
1969 1,717
1970 1,641
1971 1,741
1972 1,921
1973 1,747
1974 1,534

The peak years were 1960, 1964, 1968 and 1972.

By contrast Japan's production grew from 13,000 to 3,931,000, having grown every year to 1973 when production peaked at 4,470,000.
 
From the same source these are the British exports of passenger cars in thousands.

1955 373
1956 337
1957 426
1958 487
1959 569
1960 570
1961 371
1962 545
1963 616
1964 679
1965 628
1966 556
1967 503
1968 677
1969 772
1970 690
1971 721
1972 628
1973 599
1974 565
 
The information I have for passenger car imports 1955-74 is sparse.

1964 - 66,000 a tenth of the exports for that year, i.e. 679,000
1969 - 100,000 (the source didn't give the number, but did say they were up by 50%) - Exports were 772,00
1972 - 450,000 (the source says quadruple 1969) - Exports were 628,000
 
Other firms expanded at about the same time as BMC and but didn't produce near the planned level. Standard-Triumph increased its production capacity to 185,000 around 1960, but never produced more than 140,000 cars a year from then until the early 1970s. However, I think the British Government's demand management policy, also known as stop-go, had something to do that. See table below.

Note that UK production is for the calendar year and Standard-Triumph production is for their financial year which ran from 1st September to 31st August.


UK
-
Standard-Triumph
-Events
YearCars-Year-Cars-% of UK-

1957
-
860,000
-1956-57-
48,835
-
5.68%
-
H.P. restrictions tightened again

1958
-
1,051,000
-1957-58-
76,539
-
7.28%
-
H.P. restrictions lifted.

1959
-
1,190,000
-1958-59-
85,926
-
7.22%
-UK output planned to be 1.6 million in 1961 and Standard-Tiumph production was planned to be 185,000.
1960
-
1,352,000
-1959-60-
138,762
-
10.26%
-
H.P. restrictions back again due to a credit squeeze.

1961
-
1,004,000
-1960-61-
78,735
-
7.84%
-
UK output planned to be 1.6 million in 1961. Standard-Triumph production for the year ending 31.08.61 was planned to be at least 185,000.

1962
-
1,249,000
-1961-62-
78,383
-
6.28%
-
1963
-
1,607,000
-1962-63-
100,764
-
6.27%
-
1964
-
1,867,000
-1963-64-
119,937
-
6.42%
-
1965
-
1,722,000
-1964-65-
121,405
-
7.05%
-H.P. restrictions tightened
1966
-
1,603,000
-1965-66-
118,398
-
7.39%
-H.P. restrictions tightened
1967
-
1,552,000
-1966-67-
117,350
-
7.56%
-H.P. eased twice and then increased. Pound devalued.
1968
-
1,815,000
-1967-68-
139,488
-
7.69%
-H.P. restrictions increased. Import duites start to fall sharply from 25.5% to 11% in four years.
1969
-
1,717,000
-1968-69-
132,322
-
7.71%
-
1970
-
1,641,000
-1969-70-
112,127
-
6.83%
-
1971
-
1,741,000
-1970-71-
134,350
-
7.72%
-H.P. restrictions abolished
1972
-
1,921,000
-1971-72-
138,666
-
7.22%
-Import duties down to 11%
 
Lets see if this works any better...

UK - Standard-Triumph - Events
Year - Cars - Year - Cars - % of UK -


1957 - 860,000 - 1956-57 - 48,835- 5.68% - H.P. restrictions tightened again
1958 - 1,051,000 - 1957-58 - 76,539- 7.28% - H.P. restrictions lifted.
1959 - 1,190,000 - 1958-59 - 85,926- 7.22% - UK output planned to be 1.6 million in 1961 and Standard-Tiumph production was planned to be 185,000.
1960 - 1,352,000 - 1959-60 - 138,762 - 10.26% - H.P. restrictions back again due to a credit squeeze.
1961 - 1,004,000 - 1960-61 - 78,735- 7.84% - UK output planned to be 1.6 million in 1961. Standard-Triumph production for the year ending 31.08.61 was planned to be at least 185,000.
1962 - 1,249,000 - 1961-62 - 78,383- 6.28% -
1963 - 1,607,000 - 1962-63 - 100,764 - 6.27% -
1964 - 1,867,000 - 1963-64 - 119,937 - 6.42% -
1965 - 1,722,000 - 1964-65 - 121,405 - 7.05% - H.P. restrictions tightened
1966 - 1,603,000 - 1965-66 - 118,398 - 7.39% - H.P. restrictions tightened
1967 - 1,552,000 - 1966-67 - 117,350 - 7.56% - H.P. eased twice and then increased. Pound devalued.
1968 - 1,815,000 - 1967-68 - 139,488 - 7.69% - H.P. restrictions increased. Import duties start to fall sharply from 25.5% to 11% in four years.
1969 - 1,717,000 - 1968-69 - 132,322 - 7.71% -
1970 - 1,641,000 - 1969-70 - 112,127 - 6.83% -
1971 - 1,741,000 - 1970-71 - 134,350 - 7.72% - H.P. restrictions abolished
1972 - 1,921,000 - 1971-72 - 138,666 - 7.22% - Import duties down to 11%
 
I think it was the contraction of the British Auto industry that opened up the import floodgates. Where the marques were amalgamated, the Dealerships retailing the cars were also slimmed down. So, what's a Dealership to do, having lost its franchise with a car Marque that no longer exists, or has been combined into a bigger company franchise Dealership - become a dealership for imported car makes.
 
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