Effects of an Axis Yugolavia

[Hashoosh]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yugoslav_coup_d'état

So what would be the effect if the coup fails. I can see several areas that would be immediately affected;

German Invasion of Greece
Crete
Merchant Marine for North Africa
Partisan Movements
Transport Capacity for Barbarossa?

And then longer term-effects;
Tito
The Communist vs. Monarchist struggle inside Yugoslavia
Russian Advances 1944-45

And then after the war, and this is what I am interested in
The fate of Yugoslavia, is there population relocation into the constituent Serbs, Croats and Slovenes? What happens to Istria?

 

[Halagaz]

Barbarossa will happen about 2 weeks earlier.

The Yugoslav leadership will switch sides - probably in 1944. This may get a bit tricky if Germany tries to invade the country and set up true puppet regimes. Of course, by this time the Germans will be too hard pressed on the main fronts, but the Royal Yugoslav Army might see some not entirely easy fighting after all.

The country will most likely fall into the "western" sphere of the post-war order.

There will be no inter-Yugoslav population transfers. The country will be constitutionally federalized along the lines of the 1939 Agreement, into Serbia, Croatia and Slovenia. The government will have to allow the Communist Party to participate in the next elections as a goodwill gesture to the USSR. Since in this scenario the Communist never got the popularity that comes with organizing a resistance movement, they will not have much influence and only win a small % of votes (also, the government might try to keep them pruned with small-scale election fraud).

A part of Istria will be taken from Italy and attached to Yugoslavia. It might be a slightly smaller part than OTL's, though.

 

[ObssesedNuker]

Barbarossa will happen about 2 weeks earlier.

The weather says otherwise.

There will be no inter-Yugoslav population transfers. The country will be constitutionally federalized along the lines of the 1939 Agreement, into Serbia, Croatia and Slovenia. The government will have to allow the Communist Party to participate in the next elections as a goodwill gesture to the USSR. Since in this scenario the Communist never got the popularity that comes with organizing a resistance movement, they will not have much influence and only win a small % of votes (also, the government might try to keep them pruned with small-scale election fraud).

How do we know the Red Army won't stick around ITTL? IOTL, they only left because Tito, a fellow communist, asked them too. Will they do the same to a still monarchist Yugoslavia or will their reaction be much the same as it was in Romania?

 

[Halagaz]

The weather says otherwise.

A 2-3 week delay in Barbarossa specifically because of Yugoslavia is what Mueller-Hillebrand estimated. From what I've read, the weather would have caused a delay of 2-3 weeks all by itself, but as the original date was May 12 the operation would have still been started earlier than June 22 - if not for the coup in Yugoslavia.

How do we know the Red Army won't stick around ITTL? IOTL, they only left because Tito, a fellow communist, asked them too. Will they do the same to a still monarchist Yugoslavia or will their reaction be much the same as it was in Romania?

IOTL, the Red Army entered Yugoslavia because they needed to help the Partisans liberate it; here, there will be no such necessity. The Yugoslav situation will also be different from Romania's or Bulgaria's because there will be no last-minute coup; the old government will join the Allies by its own decision. I also think the Red Army will be slightly more battered due to an earlier German attack, which will reduce the USSR's enthusiasm for getting into Yugoslavia (especially since Yugoslavia would have already joined the Allies on her own).

The other scenario is still possible, the USSR might not lose interest and the Western Allies might end up giving away Yugoslavia. In that case it ends up more or less like Romania, a few years of nominal monarchist rule and then Communism everywhere. But I believe the first option is much more likely than this one.

 

[kclcmdr]

Which of the mini-states / provinces of Axis Yugoslavia would Germany be able to recruit brigade and divisional size combat units like Spain did?

And as Yugoslavia is an Axis Allied 'friendly' nation to Germany and to her neighbors...
How many of the OTL garrison units that had to occupy OTL Yuogslavia be free to assist Ops Barbarossa?

especially Germany, Italy, Hungary and Romania now that they have ATL Yugoslavia an Axis nation?

 

[sloreck]

The reason Yugoslavia was invaded was because of the coup that replaced the pro-Axis government with a more pro-British group (in essence). Without the coup Yugoslavia is not invaded, but they aren't lining up to join the war either. I can see Yugoslavia sitting out the war as a leaning pro-Axis neutral (like Spain). As long as Yugoslavia remains neutral, the Red Army won't be coming across the border - no military need and if the Yugos become more "neutral" as the Axis goes down the tubes I doubt the WAllies will approve of Stalin invading a neutral especially one that does not border the USSR.

 

[Hashoosh]

The reason Yugoslavia was invaded was because of the coup that replaced the pro-Axis government with a more pro-British group (in essence). Without the coup Yugoslavia is not invaded, but they aren't lining up to join the war either. I can see Yugoslavia sitting out the war as a leaning pro-Axis neutral (like Spain). As long as Yugoslavia remains neutral, the Red Army won't be coming across the border - no military need and if the Yugos become more "neutral" as the Axis goes down the tubes I doubt the WAllies will approve of Stalin invading a neutral especially one that does not border the USSR.

Would it really be feasible for Yugoslavia to remain neutral? After all, every one of their neighbours would either be Axis allies or in the cases of Greece and Albania, conquered by the Axis. Neutrality does not seem like an option there. Besides, I have to imagine that Yugoslavia would join in Barbarossa to both curry favour with the new European arbiter (after the Vienna diktat theyll be scared of losing territory to their neighbours) and hegemon. I doubt there was much love lost between the Yugoslav government and the USSR, either.

 

[Napoleon IV]

The reason Yugoslavia was invaded was because of the coup that replaced the pro-Axis government with a more pro-British group (in essence). Without the coup Yugoslavia is not invaded, but they aren't lining up to join the war either. I can see Yugoslavia sitting out the war as a leaning pro-Axis neutral (like Spain). As long as Yugoslavia remains neutral, the Red Army won't be coming across the border - no military need and if the Yugos become more "neutral" as the Axis goes down the tubes I doubt the WAllies will approve of Stalin invading a neutral especially one that does not border the USSR.

Of course once Germany's back is against the wall Yugoslavia is too valuable to let switch. Under the agreement between Prince Paul and Hitler Yugoslavia would provide economic aid and resources, and as time went on Hitler would probably force Yugoslavia to agree to other things, such as letting troops pass through it. I agree that Yugoslavia will never join the Axis, but if it tries to go more neutral Hitler, never the most rational person in the best of times, will take it personally and try to attack Yugoslavia. Depending on when this happens it could do nothing or it could force Yugoslavia to collapse for a few months, at which point it is occupied by the Red Army.

 

[Halagaz]

Would it really be feasible for Yugoslavia to remain neutral? After all, every one of their neighbours would either be Axis allies or in the cases of Greece and Albania, conquered by the Axis. Neutrality does not seem like an option there. Besides, I have to imagine that Yugoslavia would join in Barbarossa to both curry favour with the new European arbiter (after the Vienna diktat theyll be scared of losing territory to their neighbours) and hegemon. I doubt there was much love lost between the Yugoslav government and the USSR, either.

The terms of the Pact signed by Yugoslavia allowed it to remain de facto neutral - Germany had promised not to demand any troops from them for Barbarossa, or even the invasion of Greece. Hitler's promises are not worth much, but it is unlikely he would try and break that particular one until it's too late.

The Yugoslav goverment rapidly reestablished relations with USSR in 1940, shared some military intelligence with it, and briefly considered trying to resist German pressure with USSR's help. There was no real love lost there, but the Regency and most of the government were still crypto-pro-Allied. They wouldn't throw themselves into something like that.

 

[ObssesedNuker]

A 2-3 week delay in Barbarossa specifically because of Yugoslavia is what Mueller-Hillebrand estimated. From what I've read, the weather would have caused a delay of 2-3 weeks all by itself, but as the original date was May 12 the operation would have still been started earlier than June 22 - if not for the coup in Yugoslavia.

The modern accounts I have read say the rivers were still more flooded then the Germans found acceptable into mid-June. Hence, the postponement to June 22nd was made at the start of the month on this basis.

IOTL, the Red Army entered Yugoslavia because they needed to help the Partisans liberate it; here, there will be no such necessity. The Yugoslav situation will also be different from Romania's or Bulgaria's because there will be no last-minute coup; the old government will join the Allies by its own decision.

Timing sounds like it would be tricky though: leave it too early and the Germans could pull a Hungary. Leave it too late and they get spurned as a German puppet by the Russians.

 

[Marko]

Without the serious manpower that was kept by the Axis during the WWII on the territory of Yugoslavia I am quite positive the government would switch alongside Italy in 1943. Even NDH was contemplating a switch with all the Axis troops on the ground.

If that happens I doubt Romania and Buglaria would keep true to the Axis and the Germans would suddenly have a massive hole on their southern flank. Add to that the sudden ability of the Allies to transfer troops across the Adriatic to bolster defences. They don't even have to secure all of Yugoslavia, only the southeastern mountainous part that would make any German attacks very difficult.

This could result in a complete colapse of the eastern front in the winter of 1943/44.

 

[Hashoosh]

Bumpity bump.

Anyone have thoughts on the likelihood of them becoming cobelligerents?

 

[Hörnla]

Add to that the sudden ability of the Allies to transfer troops across the Adriatic to bolster defences. They don't even have to secure all of Yugoslavia, only the southeastern mountainous part that would make any German attacks very difficult.
.

Churchill would love, love, love an Adriatic operation!
The balance in Southeastern-Europe would be a bit different when the war ends.

 

[Napoleon IV]

Bumpity bump.

Anyone have thoughts on the likelihood of them becoming cobelligerents?

Yugoslavia would probably not become a member of the Axis. The leadership was too pro-British and the Axis (particularly the Italians) were too pro-Ustase for such a relationship to progress. If the Axis decided to push Yugoslavia the Yugoslavs resist and an invasion occurs.

 

[kclcmdr]

Bumpity bump.

Anyone have thoughts on the likelihood of them becoming cobelligerents?

Maybe the Germans will get a chance to recruit Pro-Axis folks like the Slovenes or others and create Brigade or Divisional combat legions to fight against Communist Russia....

 

[Kaiser K]

Something tells me that Yugoslavia might be broken up at war's end potentially in this scenario.

 

[Hashoosh]

Something tells me that Yugoslavia might be broken up at war's end potentially in this scenario.

That's what I thought too, but it seems like Yugoslavia would be more like Spain or Sweden, rather than Hungary or Romania or Bulgaria.

 

[Hörnla]

Something tells me that Yugoslavia might be broken up at war's end potentially in this scenario.

With only Greater Serbia ending up Communist? Interesting possibility.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

Would Yugoslav airspace be respected if the country tried to say neutral (but pro Axis) like Spain was?

I ask the question because the USAAF used bases in southern Italy to attack the Romanian oilfields and the aircraft factories the Germans were building in Hungary. This might not be feasible if Yugoslavia still existed as a neutral state.

The Germans might then be able to get a few million extra barrels of crude oil out of Romania before the Russians arrived.