Effects of an Axis Vichy-France?

In autumn of 1940, Hitler offers Vichy France back the Channel territory as well as parts of Switzerland in a 3 way partition with Italy, for a full DOW on Britain and later the USSR.

Is this realistic?

How does this effect negotiations with Franco and the war effort with the Allies?
 
Last edited:
Switzerland

Invading Switzerland would be a huge waste of time for the axis. It's the country with the least natural resources and a whole long list of defenses. It's more trouble than its worth.

Having Vichy France on the Axis would help the Axis position in North Africa though.
 
France have no desire for Switzerland whatsoever, if Germany attack they may want to administrate the French part, but only to avoid German occupation of it.

As for a French declaration of war against UK based on German demands (rather than British action) will not be popular. Most likely the last remnants of Vichy's legitimacy break down when France has to fight another war, especially against a former brother in arms. I would expect that whoever is forced to take the government of France (Petain most likely remains on the post) will fail to keep the state functioning. In the end I would expect that the situation becomes so dire that Germany has to re-occupy France one more time.
 
there was a strong collaboration IOTL and formal agreement never pursued by German side.

my scenario would be they pursue the three French bases offered (Dakar, Bizerte, and Aleppo) as well as the aircraft production projects.

seems implausible or from German point of view undesirable to have large Vichy army or even navy operating?

however they could have reconstituted an air force and submarine force with regime loyalists.
 

trurle

Banned
France have no desire for Switzerland whatsoever, if Germany attack they may want to administrate the French part, but only to avoid German occupation of it.

As for a French declaration of war against UK based on German demands (rather than British action) will not be popular. Most likely the last remnants of Vichy's legitimacy break down when France has to fight another war, especially against a former brother in arms. I would expect that whoever is forced to take the government of France (Petain most likely remains on the post) will fail to keep the state functioning. In the end I would expect that the situation becomes so dire that Germany has to re-occupy France one more time.

The France was quite hostile to British. Especially after British showed they do not consider Frenchmen trustworthy by Attack on Mers-el-Kébir. The De Gaulle of "Free French" speech is symptomatic (cited from wikipedia)

"Never the Anglo-Saxons really treated us as real allies. They never consulted us, government to government, on any of their provisions. For political purpose or by convenience, they sought to use the French forces for their own goals, as if these forces belonged to them, alleging that they had provided weapons to them [...] I considered that I had to play the French game, since the others were playing theirs ... I deliberately adopted a stiffened and hardened attitude ..."

So IF German to give France an independence and perspectives to retain it at the end of war, both Vichy and Free France will be on German side. You may notice the relation between Germany and Vichy France improved as Germany won battles and soured as Germany lose. So make POD for Germany to fare much better than in OTL, and Frenchmen will be their allies eventually. Frenchmen will hate both Germany and British, but will kill British because it is easier. I can imagine combined forces of Germany and France fending off the invasion by British/US force in 1944.

About Switzerland question, i agree it was irrelevant.

About negotiations with Franco: pulling France closer to Axis side will help a bit, but Spanish leaders and general Spanish populace were pretty determined to just wait for the end of war. The effect of Spanish Civil War memories. For Spanish to participate in the war more aggressively, the outcome of war should be already 100% decided. So in best (for Axis) case they will provide some occupation forces to US cities with large percentage of Spanish-speaking citizens - but only AFTER United States are crushed. The active front-line fighting was out of question.
 
Last edited:

Ryan

Donor
France will be seen as traitorous to the allies and will be treated as an enemy state rather than an occupied one. they won't get an occupation zone or a UNSC seat.

perhaps the word Petain will replace quisling as being synonymous with collaborator/traitor.
 
IIRC some of the senior members of Vichy wanted to declare war on the UK as part of a final peace agreement rather than the perpetual armistice they had, I think it might even have been proposed to the Germans if only unofficially. It's going to complicate things post-war as didn't different members of the Allies recognise Vichy as the legitimate government whilst others the Free French? Provided that they switched sides as soon as it was viable that confusion could potentially provide enough wiggle-room to sweep most of it under the carpet, they likely don't get as favourable treatment with regards to diplomacy, the UN, occupation zones, financial aid etc. however but still a decent amount.
 
This would seem to seriously complicate British efforts in North Africa.:eek:

Worse still is the effect on Brit shipping if U-boats base out of Dakar.:eek::eek: RN was already stretched thin...

There's also the jumbo butterfly of what this does in SEA. Does it mean Japan, as an ally, is granted free passage across IndoChina to attack Chungking? Without having to annex any part of Vietnam, it would seem the asset freeze & steel & oil embargoes that were proximate causes of the Pacific War disappear...

This IMO is a very bad thing for Germany....:eek::eek: Now, U.S. production can concentrate entirely on supporting Britain, without needing to supply American efforts.

The problems with the Mark 13, 14, & 15 torpedoes are likely not to be discovered for decades.:eek: The trouble with the HOR/MAN submarine engines may take years to uncover, too.:eek:

Pretty fair chance the U.S. doesn't develop the Bomb until after 1950. (IMO, Britain wouldn't bother during the war, & couldn't afford to immediately afterward; maybe 1955?) Very good chance China ends up capitalist & (at least marginally) democratic, after cutting a deal with Japan for aid in destroying the ChiComs. Very likely there's no U.S. war in Vietnam, so no *AH-1. (Do we see the Cheyenne, instead? Or stick with the *HU-1?)

Likely Ned Beach doesn't write Submarine!:(:(:( Or Run Silent, Run Deep.:(:( Very likely Pendleton never creates Mack Bolan.:(:( (Which also means no Punisher.:() No Vietnam also means no Magnum as OTL & no "Tour of Duty".:( Also no "Rambo" series.:cool::cool:
 

Archibald

Banned
Petain had been ambassador of France in Spain in the mid-20's and he knew Franco since then. Petain believed Vichy France could be as neutral as Spain was. It was a tragic mistake. whatever happened, France had fought WWII early on as one of the major powers and until WWII finished, France would be part of this war. There was no room for Spain-like neutrality.
 
Worse still is the effect on Brit shipping if U-boats base out of Dakar.
If Dakar looked to be coming into play then it would get the same treatment as Madagascar, there'd be no faffing about and relying on de Gaulle or whatever constituted the Free French.
 
Top