Hey Guys,
In 1848 President Polk offered the Kingdom of Spain a large amount of money ($100,000,000) for Cuba but the Spanish declined the offer as Cuba was still making them quite a bit of money at the time and Spain was very resistant to selling their colonies.
Let's say that for some reason Spain is more open to selling Cuba for this huge amount of money, say the Second Carlist War is much larger than IOTL which could weaken the Spanish government enough that they need a large amount of money quickly. While you may claim this is implausible just go with it as the reason why Spain sells Cuba isn't major in this thread.
Anyway Spain has now sold Cuba to the United States, I would guess it'd be incorporated as a slave-state pretty much straight away. Cuba has about the same population as Virginia with about a million citizens, of whom about 58% are non-white. What effects will an American Cuba have in the near and long term future?
Will a Civil War be averted? If the Confederacy is still created would Cuba join it, revolt against America or even stay in the Union? Would an American Cuba simply be putting off the inevitable?
In the long-term if America stays united and Cuba stays as a state might we see the American Navy expand with the large influence they now have in the Caribbean, if we see this occur then would we see American interest grow in the Caribbean more so than IOTL. If we see this might we see more annexations by the US in the Caribbean, for example if there are a lack of butterflies on Dominican Republic might we see it be annexed by the US if Buenaventura Báez requests they do again? Also how might the filibustering of William Walker in Central America go? Same as per IOTL perhaps?
Any other thoughts on it? Thanks for reading.