Effects of an American Cuba in 1848?

Hey Guys,

In 1848 President Polk offered the Kingdom of Spain a large amount of money ($100,000,000) for Cuba but the Spanish declined the offer as Cuba was still making them quite a bit of money at the time and Spain was very resistant to selling their colonies.

Let's say that for some reason Spain is more open to selling Cuba for this huge amount of money, say the Second Carlist War is much larger than IOTL which could weaken the Spanish government enough that they need a large amount of money quickly. While you may claim this is implausible just go with it as the reason why Spain sells Cuba isn't major in this thread.

Anyway Spain has now sold Cuba to the United States, I would guess it'd be incorporated as a slave-state pretty much straight away. Cuba has about the same population as Virginia with about a million citizens, of whom about 58% are non-white. What effects will an American Cuba have in the near and long term future?

Will a Civil War be averted? If the Confederacy is still created would Cuba join it, revolt against America or even stay in the Union? Would an American Cuba simply be putting off the inevitable?

In the long-term if America stays united and Cuba stays as a state might we see the American Navy expand with the large influence they now have in the Caribbean, if we see this occur then would we see American interest grow in the Caribbean more so than IOTL. If we see this might we see more annexations by the US in the Caribbean, for example if there are a lack of butterflies on Dominican Republic might we see it be annexed by the US if Buenaventura Báez requests they do again? Also how might the filibustering of William Walker in Central America go? Same as per IOTL perhaps?

Any other thoughts on it? Thanks for reading.
 
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I don't think Cuba would become a state until after a few years of (mostly Southern) US settlement. There'd be a certain amount of conflict between such settlers and the Cubans, although white Cubans would probably not be cheated as much as I think people in the Mexican Cession were. I don't know how much an issue language would be at that time.

It might focus US efforts toward the Caribbean (and away from, for instance, northern Mexico), but I think such efforts wouldn't be very successful. There would be a lot of resistance from the islands' colonial rulers, not to mention the Northern states (the idea of large numbers of new slave states upsetting the Senatorial balance).

Cuba as a Confederate state would of course be blockaded by the Union Navy, requiring that navy to expand more than IOTL, and probably weakening the overall Union blockade. I don't know if the Union would try to actually reconquer it.
 
One important thing is how racist the Southerns were at this time. The White Cubans will have to either be assimilated or expelled, as they weren't as few the Mexicans in the territories the USA conquered from Mexico and Cuba doesn't have as much space for immigration.
But will the Southerns accept the White Cubans as equals? They are whiter than the Mexicans but not as white as the White Americans.
Also they and the slaves will have to learn English.

So I think this depends on how tolerant are the Southerns. IIRC, the racism started after the ACW, but I could be wrong.
 
It might focus US efforts toward the Caribbean (and away from, for instance, northern Mexico), but I think such efforts wouldn't be very successful. There would be a lot of resistance from the islands' colonial rulers, not to mention the Northern states (the idea of large numbers of new slave states upsetting the Senatorial balance).

Well the Mexican American war was over by now. The US was currently occupying central Mexico. This was Polk's attempt to expand even further.

One important thing is how racist the Southerns were at this time. The White Cubans will have to either be assimilated or expelled, as they weren't as few the Mexicans in the territories the USA conquered from Mexico and Cuba doesn't have as much space for immigration.
But will the Southerns accept the White Cubans as equals? They are whiter than the Mexicans but not as white as the White Americans.
Also they and the slaves will have to learn English.

So I think this depends on how tolerant are the Southerns. IIRC, the racism started after the ACW, but I could be wrong.

I think southerner slave owners (the upper class) will accept white Cuban slave owners as equals. They have same long term goals, to expand slavery and are really not much different from each other. The Cuban slave owners will likely also assibilate quickly and easily into the American upper class. They can afford education in the mainland, etc. Almost the same goes for the upper middle class (doctors, lawyers, and people with capital that do not necessarily own slaves).
The bigger issue is religion. Will the Cubans go as far as conversion to assimilate? There might be a small number that do, but I think its unlikely.

Poor free white Cuban's and Mulattos are a completely different case though. For starters they would be very much impossible to assimilate. The biggest problem for the US with them is how easily can they move across the US. If they stay in Cuba, they won't be a problem for the most part until the Civil War erupts. Then they are likely to be a big problem for the South. But free mulattos/blacks moving into the South and wandering around is something the South would preferably avoid. There might be restrictions imposed on them and Cuban society might end up very stratified into a caste system very quickly of who can do what, and where.

The bigger issue is that the Union now has one more slave state, so things partially balance out when the whole Bleeding Kansas issue arises and the Missouri Compromise is likely to be delayed since the issues won't come up until a few years later [1]. It can also affect how California enters into the Union. Split into two states maybe?

When the Civil War does erupt though Cuba is likely to side with the Confederacy. This gives the CSA an enormous marine advantage in the Gulf. A blockade like the Anaconda Plan would be much harder for the Union to pull off. So the South might do better off.

If the Union wins, not much changes afterwards. Just you get a US with more Catholics, more Rum, and more blacks and Latinos earlier on. Which can have certain consequences on culture, and immigration later.

If the CSA wins, Cuba is a Confederate state, the CSA has more blacks/mulattos as well as Catholics. In the long run Cuba might rebel against the CSA if (or when) it implodes. Cuba might break free and become a runaway slave paradise, (yes Americans swimming towards Cuba) or the rebellion could be harshly put down and you get massacres and ethnic cleansing in Cuba to wipe out those pesky hispanic rebels.[2]

[1] This could just be a few month depending on how other free states make it into the Union to balance for Cuba now.
[2] I like the first scenario better. It has some irony to it.
 
Well the Mexican American war was over by now. The US was currently occupying central Mexico. This was Polk's attempt to expand even further.

Oops. As they said in the 90's, my bad:eek:. If the Union Navy expands enough to attempt to blockade Cuba, that'd leave much less (recruits, yes, but mainly money) available for the Army. That might force the Union to fight less aggressively.
 
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