alternatehistory.com

Seeing that the May 4th Movement's effect on Republicanism in China is little discussed, I'd like to ask alternatehistory.com's opinion on the effect of what if May 4th never happened, or was on a far smaller scale and radicality (is that the word?). How would ATL Chinas culture and political situation look like? Would China still splinter, Beiyang survive or a Republican Government arise?
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