Effects of an alternate May 4th

Seeing that the May 4th Movement's effect on Republicanism in China is little discussed, I'd like to ask alternatehistory.com's opinion on the effect of what if May 4th never happened, or was on a far smaller scale and radicality (is that the word?). How would ATL Chinas culture and political situation look like? Would China still splinter, Beiyang survive or a Republican Government arise?
 

Asami

Banned
Well, the Beiyang Government would likely survive due to a lack of support for the Kuomintang and Chiang Kai-shek... and China would be considerably less westernized. The May 4th Movement pivoted Chinese attentions away from traditional ideologies and adaptations of republicanism within the Chinese cultural system, to a rapid pace of westernization, feeding into the emergence of Mao/CPC, and the Kuomintang.

Without this, moderate China would likely prevail, with the military-dominated regime fading from existence eventually; that, or an eventual restoration of the Qing Dynasty, but after two failed attempts (Yuan Shikai 1915-16; Pu-yi 1917), I doubt such things.
 
Top