Effects of a unified Germany in 1848 on German emigration?

CaliGuy

Banned
What effects would a unified Germany in 1848 have on German emigration?

For instance, would German liberals remain in Germany in this TL due to their hopes not being dashed? Also, if a Germany which is unified in 1848 eventually goes to war in Russia and acquires some Baltic territories from Russia, could these territorial acquisitions and likely resulting free land discourage some Germans from emigrating abroad (such as to the U.S., which had a lot of available good land back then)?In addition to this, could more Czechs and Slovenes emigrate in this TL due to them being put under strong German rule staring from 1848?

Any thoughts on all of this?
 
The biggest factor is almost certainly going to be the effect of early industrialisation on German demographics. An extra generation of rapid economic growth is going to taper off the birth rate, greatly reducing the economic impetus to immigrate. Early industrialisation is not technically inevitable after an 1848 unification, but if it does occur those effects will be enormous.
 
The biggest factor is almost certainly going to be the effect of early industrialisation on German demographics. An extra generation of rapid economic growth is going to taper off the birth rate, greatly reducing the economic impetus to immigrate. Early industrialisation is not technically inevitable after an 1848 unification, but if it does occur those effects will be enormous.
Germany was industrialising already... I mean what´s the connection with the 1848 and industrialization? You could say the later caused the former, the other way around doesn´t make sense.
 
An 1848 that establishes a unified Germany, with no internal barriers to trade and migration and a suitable economic policy, would have a generation of stronger economic growth. A wealthier and more developed Germany is one that will see less population growth, or at least less emigration. Why leave if things are OK?
 
Germany was industrialising already... I mean what´s the connection with the 1848 and industrialization? You could say the later caused the former, the other way around doesn´t make sense.
Simply the results of a united market and economies of scale, as well as secondary feedback effects like unified trade/financial/economic policies.
 
An 1848 that establishes a unified Germany, with no internal barriers to trade and migration and a suitable economic policy, would have a generation of stronger economic growth. A wealthier and more developed Germany is one that will see less population growth, or at least less emigration. Why leave if things are OK?
Emigration could be lower, but fertility rate are not going to fall out of nothing, thus growth will be higher not lower.
 
Again, those thing all happened, Zollverein, look it up.

Righto, look up the German economic states pre unification and post and explain the discrepancy. Zollverein was nice and all, but was hardly on the same level as a united Germany. It's several steps behind.
 
Not much immediate change. The emigrations of the 1840s were mostly down to European agriculture being in a bad way. There was massive emigration from Switzerland, Scandinavia and Britain (not just Ireland) as well as Germany. Politics had little to do with it.
 
Righto, look up the German economic states pre unification and post and explain the discrepancy. Zollverein was nice and all, but was hardly on the same level as a united Germany. It's several steps behind.
It´s not several steps behind, compared to 1819 situation it´s several steps ahead, it´s more like united Germany than not, that´s how the various states were forced into Germany, out of economic integration.

Also that doesn´t refute the fact that industrialization was way underway and happened for decades.
 
Not much immediate change. The emigrations of the 1840s were mostly down to European agriculture being in a bad way. There was massive emigration from Switzerland, Scandinavia and Britain (not just Ireland) as well as Germany. Politics had little to do with it.

Indeed in some states the abolition of serfdom probably increased emigration by allowing some peasants to leave who otherwise would not have been free to do so.
 
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It´s not several steps behind, compared to 1819 situation it´s several steps ahead, it´s more like united Germany than not, that´s how the various states were forced into Germany, out of economic integration.

Also that doesn´t refute the fact that industrialization was way underway and happened for decades.

Not really. Of course it's better than nothing, never disputed that, but to say that the Zollverein had equal economic features to the Germany that formed in '71 is just disingenuous. There's also the point to make that presuming 1848 Germany is a Grossdeutschland it will include Austria and Bohemia-Moravia, some very valuable territories that would add to an already big internal market. Throw Luxembourg into the mix for fun. Massive potential.
 
Not really. Of course it's better than nothing, never disputed that, but to say that the Zollverein had equal economic features to the Germany that formed in '71 is just disingenuous. There's also the point to make that presuming 1848 Germany is a Grossdeutschland it will include Austria and Bohemia-Moravia, some very valuable territories that would add to an already big internal market. Throw Luxembourg into the mix for fun. Massive potential.
I just said it was more similar to 1871 than pre 1818 Germany, not that it was 1871 Germany.

The thing is that you would indeed have bigger market but that doesn´t translate into better local conditions, the fact is that Germany IOTL did industrialize massively post-1850 and was industrialiazing before, so it doesn´t follow how a united Germany could that much better when IOTL the development was spectacular. You could make the point for Austrian lands that would be integrated but not for Germany
 
The thing is that you would indeed have bigger market but that doesn´t translate into better local conditions, the fact is that Germany IOTL did industrialize massively post-1850 and was industrialiazing before, so it doesn´t follow how a united Germany could that much better when IOTL the development was spectacular. You could make the point for Austrian lands that would be integrated but not for Germany

Economic development is certainly highly dependent, and it's pretty easy to conceive of a Germany that actually had worse growth after an 1848 unification than the disunited Germany of OTL did. This would almost certainly though be for political reasons, such as instability if the unification is shoddy or even defeat in war. By the same token measurably greater growth due to a unification would probably be more influenced by the political developments that followed, such as for instance a Grossdeutschland being able to gain a more significant colonial empire or greater access to Eastern Europe. Really difficult to predict.

What can be said though IMO is that, for the sake of the argument, if all else was equal this Germany would have access to a more united market thanks to there being one government able to focus greater resources allowing for greater economies of scale. What's more of an open question is whether an intrinsically more liberal Germany would fair better or worse in the short-mid term than OTL's Prussian construct...
 

CaliGuy

Banned
An 1848 that establishes a unified Germany, with no internal barriers to trade and migration and a suitable economic policy, would have a generation of stronger economic growth. A wealthier and more developed Germany is one that will see less population growth, or at least less emigration. Why leave if things are OK?
Makes sense. :)

However, wouldn't it still take Germany a couple of generations or so in this TL for its population to become majority-urban?
 
Since so many liberals left because of the failure of the Revolutions of 1848, I wonder had they stayed if they still might have left anyway. The two leading German powers in the running to possibly unify Germany were both very conservative. The Austrian Empire with their multi-ethnic Empire was gradually if not quickly becoming an unpopular choice due to their inclusion of their non-German lands and peoples. The Prussian kingdom also conservative already nixed a liberal Germany by virtue of Frederick Wilhelm IV's refusal to accept a "Crown from the gutter" offered by the Frankfurt Assembly. The emergence shortly of Otto von Bismarck, and the conservative and soon to be King/Emperor Wilhelm I would put to rest any chance of a liberal and or progressive German Empire. (The only chance would have been for an earlier and longer reign of the Liberal Frederick III. Unfortunately he was already dying from cancer on his succession and his reign only lasted 100 days.)

Perhaps many more would have stayed initially by the drunkeness of German Nationalism, but little was ever done to move away from the staunch conservatism that was the German Empire under Bismarck and the Hohenzollern's.
 
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You still had significant German emigration primarily to the USA well past unification in 1870 (sadly including the ancestor of the present US president). A unified Germany in 1848-50 is not likely, more that you'd have a more unified Germany with the left over odds & sods joining over the next couple of decades. If Germany is united under a liberal regime in 1848, then the majority of those who emigrated to the USA for political reasons won't happen, although by far most emigrated for economic reasons. If the liberals still lose, but Germany becomes more unified (after all Bismarck was not a liberal "democratically" unifying Germany under the Hohenzollerns) under a monarchical/illiberal regime then those '48ers will still emigrate.
 
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