Effects of a TL-191 style Confederate victory on late 19th century wars

Thande

Donor
One thing that always annoyed me about Turtledove's TL-191 series (apart from the fact that Sam Carsten sunburns easily, and zinc oxide cream does not help much, and Sam Carsten sunburns easily, and zinc oxide cream does not help much, and Sam Carsten sunburns easily, and zinc oxide cream does not help much, and Sam Carsten sunburns easily, and zinc oxide cream does not help much, ad infinitum) is the fact that he assumes that a victorious Confederacy that got there by British and French help produces almost no butterflies whatsoever.

Some examples: the Franco-Prussian War of 1870 and the Russo-Turkish War of 1878 both appear to be totally unchanged. The Hispano-Japanese War of 1898 in TL-191 is a blatantly direct analogue of the Spanish-American War in OTL despite the fact that 1) Cuba was taken by the CSA in the 1870s, presumably altering Spanish policy toward her remaining colonies, and 2) there is obviously no analogous trigger for the war. And then there's the Russo-Japanese War of 1905. This is, of course, all necessary so the Entente and Central Powers lineup in 1914 is implausibly exactly the same as OTL, fifty years after a POD.

So, as we all know better, what changes to the OTL pattern of late 19th century wars and alliances would result from the TL-191 POD?

(For those that don't know, this is essentially that Lee's Lost Orders aren't, he fights a successful campaign up into Pennsylvania, and Britain and France recognise the CSA and apparently provide a small amount of military intervention against the USA; then twenty years later in 1881 there is a more direct Anglo-French attack on the USA when the Americans declare war on the CSA over Confederate annexation of Chihuahua and Sonora).
 
I see the Franco-Prussian War happening just as it did in OTL. Perhaps a 40/60 chance that the CSA sends troops to Europe to aid Napoleon III. One thing I wasn't a fan of was that the alliances didn't change at all by 1914. It's not completely implausible, but I was still surprised that Britain and France were completely on the side of the CSA and vice versa after all those years. Then again, Germany had sided with the USA so IMO it was believable enough.

I think the main thing though was Turtledove's concentration. Yeah, it was unbelievable... but his concentration was North America, not the rest of the world.
 
Well, we could argue that a II Empire successful in Mexico (as a consequence of CSA independence and support for Maximilian) would not need an absurd war with Prussia to save the face. Which in turn would butterfly entirely the TL-191 premise.
 

67th Tigers

Banned
Well, we could argue that a II Empire successful in Mexico (as a consequence of CSA independence and support for Maximilian) would not need an absurd war with Prussia to save the face. Which in turn would butterfly entirely the TL-191 premise.

Also, with Mexico still Franco-Austrian, the French would be more inclined towards allying with Austria in a putative 1866 war (assuming the 1864 invasion of Denmark isn't butterflied away).

I can see the natural flow of events stopping the formation of the German Empire by a Franco-Austrian alliance crushing the relatively weak Prussia (and Italy) in 1866, this would butterfly WW1 away totally.

Also, 1862 saw the begining of a large cycle of disarmament in the British Empire, which a hostile US on Canada's borders would butterfly away. ITTL the British may have adopted some of the more interesting ideas about Army organisation proposed (which included permanent Corps de Armee, continental style regiments of 4 battalions and the expectation to field 16 large Army Corps almost immediately in any continental war)
 
Guys

Given that OTL Britain and France spent most of the period in opposition and France's politics were greatly changed by the defeat in 1870 and fall of the French empire it is pretty ASB that they stay close allies all this time in TL191. Furthermore if Britain and France are close allies what is the likelihood that France would link up with Russia, another traditional opponent of Britain. Or that if it did and still maintained links with Britain then Japan would probably become closely linked to Germany. [If you can overcome Wilhelm II's racism on the issue].

This all assumes that a CSA victory and the survival of the Mexican empire, doesn't butterfly the rise of Prussia to German domination. Tiger's alternative route could easily occur. Or other butterflies. Greater concentration on the continued tension in the Americans and a prolonged French presence, on a small scale in Mexico, might drastically change French equipment and tactics and hence the outcome of the 1870 war if it did occur.

I won't go into the other obstacle to this idea, as I've done that often enough elsewhere. If the US was as obsessively hostile and determined on wars of vengeance then its economic and political development would be considerably affected. Not just the highly militarised and centralised state he displays in TL191 by 1914 but the costs of all this, financial, economic and social. At the same time without this continued hostility the natural common economic interests of Britain and America will tend to bring them together, while the differences over slavery will widen the gulf between the CSA and the Europeans - presuming the system is maintained.

Steve
 
Yeah but slavery was not maintained which is why they were friendly with the confederacy. As it is I was under the impression that the french had basically pulled out of Mexico after the franco-Prussian war anyway.
 
Hrmm. I wonder if this world goes on the gold standard? Germany only did so with reparations, and the US will have an even stronger bimetallism movement.
 
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