Effects of a surviving Texas?

Just for a minute let's forget how Texas stays independent and examine the effects.
So what would be the short term 1845-1860, medium term 1860-1890 and long term 1890-1920.
 
Well basically Texas will become British aligned and we would see much more British interference in the Americas.
 
In 1845 Texas had a population of around 100K, had little money and lots of debts. Since gaining its independence, it never had firm borders, claiming a much larger area than it could govern or protect, and of course much of the area was still claimed by Mexico. In addition, Mexico was a continual threat.
While slavery was prevalent, a slave/plantation culture was certainly not the dominant culture at this time.

So what happens between 1845 - 1860? Well first of all the population is not going to grow nearly as fast as it did in OTL. Basically in OTL Texas grew from 100K to 600K over that 15 year period. The great majority of the immigration came from the southern slave states. Without the stability and protection created by joining the US, a large number of the immigrants from the southern states, just aren't going to move to Texas. During this early period, I think the population would only rise to about 300K, with immigrants coming in about equal numbers from the northern and midwestern free states, the southern slaves states, and from other countries- primarily Mexico and German areas.

As a result, Texas culture is much different from OTL - not a plantation culture, a much larger percentage of subsistence farming, with a little more industry and people gravitating to towns.

In addition, the government will have to find protectors and possibly enter into a much more stable, friendly relationship with Mexico (a treaty that makes compromises concerning recognized borders, and makes other concessions). If as was suggested, Texas looks to GB for protection and support, then I think you see a lot more British immigration to Texas. But I wouldn't count out France as being a player here. Now if Texas had a much larger percentage of French immigration and a partnership with France, then the cultural change in Texas would evewn be more significant. Not sure, but France may be less likely than Britain during this time to try to get Texas to abolish slavery.

Now by 1860, this new Texas culture is becoming ingrained. The US, because of the butterflies, may not be close to a civil war. But, for the sake of discussion, let say that the slave culture of the South is threatened by abolitionists and others in the federal governement. So starting in 1860, Texas is now looking like the place to go. An independent country where slavery is legal, and where the population speaks English, and cotton will grow. So during the 1860s, the threats of war and actual civil war in the US causes a great migration to Texas of slave owners and slaves from all over the South. However, instead of finding peace and acceptance of their slave culture, a large percentage of Texans hate and despise these newcomers. By 1870 such animosity has built up that conflicts begin. The slave owners don't have the political clout to enforce their culture and so they try to enforce it with organized intimidation. Regular folks are not as organized at first, but eventually, become organized and an all out borderless civil war occurs in Texas. With the money and support of the United States, the free Texans defeat the slave owners. Slavery is abolished around 1880. However, the long conflict has stagnated the population, the economy, and the overall development of the country.

During the conflict the US has purchased from Mexico, much of the land west of Texas. While Texas had hoped to eventually have a western border that reached the Pacific, the actions by the US have ended that dream. As a result, Texas limps along for years.

One change from OTL though is that the Republic maintained ownership of all mineral rights for all lands sold or given to settlers. As a result, when oli is discovered in the 1890s, suddenly the Republic is wealthy beyond its imagination. But corrupt politicians/military commanders seize control of the country in order to gain access to all the oil wealth. As a result, texas becomes something of a military dictatorship as backward and poor for the general population as any banana republic we know of. So not too bright of a future.
 
Just a thought: In lieu of secession, could masses of Southerners flock into an independent Texas to escape an increasingly anti-slavery Union?
 
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