Effects of a surviving Gran Colombia?

FDW

Banned
Exactly what it says on the box, come up with whatever reason you might need to have it survive to cause said effects.
 
That's a good question. In An Alternate History of the Netherlands, I too have a Grand Colombia. During the 1930s, the U.S. intervened there. And after WWII it had a string of dictators, and when the oil runs low, the U.S. will return. Beyond that, I have no idea.
 
A while back I was doing some research with plans on doing a TL about this, that kind of fell through though. :eek:

Panama is going to be a big part of its economy, and the chance of there being a competing Nicaragua canal is kind of high.

Gran Colombia definitely needs a strong backer, and I was thinking of the Britain as it's supporter with the Panama canal being built with British money, the Nicaragua canal being built with American money to not be under British dominance.

Once oil becomes a big commodity you better believe they will exploit the hell out of it.
 
Makes sure Bolivar lives a little longer to crush the caudillos and I'd imagine the best hope is a centralised, bureaucratic junta government to keep together long enough for the glue to settle, there'd probably be a decentralising/conservative backlash at some point but a generation of stability will ensure the pretty thin lines of national difference don't take root, beyond regional tensions ala the Italian Northern League of nowadays, or Bavarian autonomists.

The effects? Well Panama is VERY important as mentioned, for canals. Oil also but I can imagine some butting of heads with Brazil over borders. Colombia, Ecuador and Venezuala were all too busy with internal wranglings in OTL to really get involved in the continents various wars, but if an element of stabilty can be instilled, Gran Colombia would be a power to reckon.

Also interesting tid bit, in the mid-1820s, as GC was forming, the Spanish speakers of Hispanola looked to them for liberation but the due to the problems that doomed it they never got a chance and it took another 20 years for them to break away from Haiti. A surviving GC would probably be quite keen to take advantage of this 'claim' later on, in order to extends it power into the Caribbean. Such a state, once oil appears would also be the main Latin player in Central American affairs, well above Mexico. Which way it goes could be intriging in dealing with Yanqui influence in the region, either accomplise or opponent? I have a feeling dependent on El Presidente this would fluctuate quite a bit.
 
Makes sure Bolivar lives a little longer to crush the caudillos and I'd imagine the best hope is a centralised, bureaucratic junta government to keep together long enough for the glue to settle, there'd probably be a decentralising/conservative backlash at some point but a generation of stability will ensure the pretty thin lines of national difference don't take root, beyond regional tensions ala the Italian Northern League of nowadays, or Bavarian autonomists.

Contrary to that I think that a better PoD would be removing Bolivar from the scene or, at least, changing considerably his (specially late) thinking. My point is that the centralist-autonomist tensions, created in part by Bolivar's totalitarian and cetralist aims were the main cause of the Gran Colombia dissolution. Bolivar's plans went against the complex sociopolitical reality in the region. If they manage, like in Mexico, to find a point of balance where the different groups of interest can share the power peacefully, I think that Gran Colombia could survive.

Another thing is the "stability" in that surviving Gan Colombia. Depending what we call stabillity, maybe the country can have some sort of stability, but never like the idea of stability that we have in our XXIth century liberal democracies. Even in TTL there will not have a proper national market, national infrastructure, national army, national bureocracy or a national identity at least until the second half of XIXth century, being optimistic, at least without a PoD in the colonial times. We could say that we are speaking about an ancien régime state disguised in liberal republic by paper laws. But at least in TTL they don't switch the spanish king for Bolivar.

Regarding the effects in the world, these are my suggestions: I think that probably the XIXth century would be pretty similar to OTL. Probably they avoid the external debt problems that had Venezuela in the late XIXth century and (shameful) historical figures like Cipriano Castro. That means not anglo-german intervention an less tensions between the USA and those countries about the Monroe doctrine that could, in the case of Germany, butterfly some things in the Great War. Perú would have some troubles in the northern border, because is not the same thing confronting Ecuador than confronting a united Gran Colombia. It's in the XXth century when Great Colombia could have more impact. I think that they could keep Panamá, with or without canal. That opens a new possibility: If the great powers don't see Panamá as a future booty because there is a stronger Colombia, maybe the canal is made in other place, perhaps Nicaragua.

With the oil reserves and the coast in the two oceans, they could be truly competing with Brazil for the leadership in South America to our current times, and become a comercial and economical hub in the continent.

And last but not least, a García Márquez from Gran Colombia could be amazing.

Cheers.
 
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