Effects of a successful coup in Germany 1938

Assume that a putsch was carried out immediately once Hitler gave the marching orders for Case Green.What would have happened to Hitler, Himmler, Heydrich and the others?I believe a "little accident"would occur with Hitler being shot at the Chancellery as would Himmler and Heydrich.What about Goebbels and Goering.Ribbentrop would be fired as Foreign Minister.What would be domestic and foreign reaction be especially if the coup leaders released documented and full evidence of Hitler's plans?Comments, please.
 
What plans would be a revelation to the west? Given that it's before Munich, there's no real betrayal here.

We end up with Grossdeutschland gearing down and the Soviets gearing up.

Japan never goes into indochina, as there's no fall of France, so OTL's trigger for the embargo doesn't happen. There's not going to be anywhere near an historical pacific war.
 
Who would be behind the coup? One of Hitler's lieutenants or lower ranking Nazis might just change the faces at the top and not much else. If it were the military taking over and getting rid of the party, things get more interesting.
 
Who would be behind the coup? One of Hitler's lieutenants or lower ranking Nazis might just change the faces at the top and not much else. If it were the military taking over and getting rid of the party, things get more interesting.

I think the release of party/Hitler plans to the west pretty much rules out a putsch by other Nazis with maybe the exception of Goering.
So the most likely suspects are indeed the military.
 

Eurofed

Banned
Assume that a putsch was carried out immediately once Hitler gave the marching orders for Case Green.What would have happened to Hitler, Himmler, Heydrich and the others?I believe a "little accident"would occur with Hitler being shot at the Chancellery as would Himmler and Heydrich.What about Goebbels and Goering.Ribbentrop would be fired as Foreign Minister.What would be domestic and foreign reaction be especially if the coup leaders released documented and full evidence of Hitler's plans?Comments, please.

Actually IOTL there was a fairly well developed Valkyrie-like military conspiracy to overthrow Hitler if he had given the order to attack Czechoslovakia.

Most likely outcome: the Nazi regime is wholly overthrown, a Heer junta takes over and restores the Kaiserreich, a compromise about the Sudetenland is reached between the new German regime and the Western powers much like OTL but with more of a nod paid to national self-determination (i.e. a plebiscite), Germany leaves Czechoslovakia alone after getting the Sudetenland, appeasement is deemed a successful strategy, Poland is forced to give back Danzig and the Corridor at Munich II (or is crushed in a Polish-German war while the Western powers stay neutral if it remains defiant). German-Western detente ensues. Mussolini attacks Yugoslavia and with much effort and help from Hungary, Bulgaria, and Croat separatists crushes it, but he is otherwise cowed. WWII as we know it and the Nazi crimes never happen in Europe, a WWII may only happen if Stalin feels confident/paranoid enough to go Red Alert after Soviet basic industrialization and modernization of the Red Army are done in the mid-late 1940s. A coin's toss about an isolated Japan reluctantly accepting to renounce the conquest of China or going kamikaze on the West as OTL, and about its siding with the West or with Stalin if the latter goes on a rampage.

Onkel Willie did a quite good TL on the PoD.
 
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Thanks Eurofed.IMHO the Heer would be behind the coup.I forgot to ask:Does the Abwehr take over operation of the Gestapo?
 
I think it would depend upon what triggers the coup. OTL the conspirators were waiting for the west to show some backbone and support the czechs. Had they done so, and Hitler was couped in response, then appeasement is completely discredited, as clearly standing up to the bully causes them to collapse. Paul Reynaud, and his interventionist school of thought, will be completely vindicated. The little Entente is reinforced and reenvigourated, and any attempt to redraw the map of europe is jumped on by France, with Britain reluctantly following along.

At least for a while anyway. Democracies get bored with constantly being on alert, and governments change. So assuming Mussolini keeps his head down, which seems likely under the circumstances, and so does Stalin, which also seems likely, at least for a few years depending on how his support for the czechs has pacified his western borders, things should remain relatively calm in Europe while France play policeman. Until they grow tired of it again and their resolve weakens. At which point anything could happen. The Italians are stronger, but the Soviets will be a monster, and they may have rehabilitated their reputation enough to back the little Entente against Italy. I could see a war in the Balkans in the mid forties between a beefed up Italy and Hungary on the one side, and Yugoslavia,Czechloslovakia, and Rumania on the other, with the Little Entente winning due to massive Soviet aid. Possibly Germany seizes the opportunity to muscle Poland, and Stalin rediscovers the joys of pan slavism, and reaffirms the soviet western borders and supports them.

I do think that the likelihood of the new german government revisiting the sudetenland, the issue that caused the Heer to freak out and coup their government, anytime soon after 1938, to be very low. Or for that matter any revanchist issue. I mean really. " Hey, we're not hitler, and we got rid of him because he was going to get us into a war with the west, but let's start demanding the same stuff as him shall we, as clearly doing the same thing we were terrified of doing six months ago is a great idea now, and will go much better."

Yeah.....


Now if the Heer coups Hitler for even talking about the Sudetenland, ie. pre Munich, then the new german government is even less likely to revisit revanchism any time soon. Maybe the Italians get up to something in the Balkans, but without the cover of the Germans it won't be until they are ready by their own definition. Maybe 43 or 44, and by then any number of scenarios are plausible. Frankly, given Italy's long standing policy of trying to figure out who will win and then opportunistically joining that side, they may well keep their heads down for a while until an opportunity presents itself.
 
While the generals of the Wehrmacht wanted to avoid another war with the West (Britain/France), they did want the lands that were taken from Germany in Versailles back and restore it to its 1914 borders; pretty much every German did, so I don't think they'd break off the Munich talks. They'd probably take a more reasonable position, though, like calling for a plebiscite in the Sudetenland, rather than demanding outright its transfer/annexation by Germany. Unlike Hitler, though, they wouldn't march into the rest of Czechoslovakia afterwards (why'd they want to?), thus aren't discredited in the eyes of the western statesmen such as Chamberlain.

- Kelenas
 
Right, but the presumed POD here is Britain/France have already said no deal and are backing the czechs, triggering the coup. Why would they change their minds? The munich talks are over, and i find it highly unlikely that they back down for munich 2.

And even if the czechs agree to a referenda on cession of the sudetenland, i suspect there will be just enough trickery for it to be defeated.. For example, all active duty czech soldiers stationed in the sudetenland obviously get to vote, being residents. etc. etc.

The germans will protest, the czechs will say "tough", and since the Germans are unwilling to go to war with any sign of backbone out of the French, that will be that.
 
Right, but the presumed POD here is Britain/France have already said no deal and are backing the czechs, triggering the coup. Why would they change their minds? The munich talks are over, and i find it highly unlikely that they back down for munich 2.

And even if the czechs agree to a referenda on cession of the sudetenland, i suspect there will be just enough trickery for it to be defeated.. For example, all active duty czech soldiers stationed in the sudetenland obviously get to vote, being residents. etc. etc.

The germans will protest, the czechs will say "tough", and since the Germans are unwilling to go to war with any sign of backbone out of the French, that will be that.


Though of course German rearmament will continue, so when Munich 2 comes round a year or twio later, she'll be that much more formidable.
 

Typo

Banned
I do think that the likelihood of the new german government revisiting the sudetenland, the issue that caused the Heer to freak out and coup their government, anytime soon after 1938, to be very low. Or for that matter any revanchist issue. I mean really. " Hey, we're not hitler, and we got rid of him because he was going to get us into a war with the west, but let's start demanding the same stuff as him shall we, as clearly doing the same thing we were terrified of doing six months ago is a great idea now, and will go much better."
ummm, it's gonna come up, not over Sudetenland, but the Polish corridor and Danzig. Even the Weimar Republic never gave up on that piece of land.
 

Eurofed

Banned
Right, but the presumed POD here is Britain/France have already said no deal and are backing the czechs, triggering the coup. Why would they change their minds? The munich talks are over, and i find it highly unlikely that they back down for munich 2.

And even if the czechs agree to a referenda on cession of the sudetenland, i suspect there will be just enough trickery for it to be defeated.. For example, all active duty czech soldiers stationed in the sudetenland obviously get to vote, being residents. etc. etc.

The germans will protest, the czechs will say "tough", and since the Germans are unwilling to go to war with any sign of backbone out of the French, that will be that.

As a matter of fact, we do not really need such a radical PoD as Britain and France discarding appeasement during the Munich crisis. We just need to assume that for whatever reason, Chamberlain delays his acceptance of Hitler's terms by a day or two. We have to remember that during the Munich crisis, Hitler was radically overestimating the then capabilities of the Wehrmacht and was reluctant to accept the OTL diplomatic compromise that in his eyes robbed him of the chance to ride in Prague as a glorious conqueror. If for whatever reason, Britain delays his acceptance just a bit, or Hitler is just slightly even more impatient, he shall give the order to attack, which shall trigger the Heer coup.

If Hitler is overthrown in these conditions, appeasement shall be vindicated in the eyes of the West, since "reasonable" forces within Germany shall have proved capable to rein in the irresponsible impulses of its leaders. The Heer, as others have pointed out, had no interest in Hitler's grandiose Lebensraum plans, but was mightly interested (like the rest of the nation) in fulfilling Germany's sensible irredentist plans (Austria, Danzig, the Corridor, Sudetenland, Upper Silesia, in this rough order). They would have even less problems than Hitler to obtain the OTL concession, since they would be more mindful to arrange them in diplomatically polite terms, like asking for a plebiscite. And it is sure that such a plebiscite would be arranged under such conditions that it would impossible for the Czechs to forge the results (which would require truly massive forgeries to be effective anyway, since the overwhelming majority, about 90%, of the Sudentefolks were Germans and largely won over to irredentism in 1938; Germans are not idiots and would ask for guarantees about the plebiscite). A successful Munich compromise would validate appeasement, as it would a more moderate diplomatic course of the new German leadership, and this would naturally pave the way for a Munich II over Danzig and the Corridor.
 
Though of course German rearmament will continue, so when Munich 2 comes round a year or twio later, she'll be that much more formidable.

True, but without the plunder of the Czechs, not as much as OTL, and the West was rearming too. The British and French will be comparatively stronger by 1940 that they were in 1938. half the tanks the Germans hit Poland with were czech after all.
 
ummm, it's gonna come up, not over Sudetenland, but the Polish corridor and Danzig. Even the Weimar Republic never gave up on that piece of land.

Oh very likely, but if it does, and the anti appeasers are still running the west, then Germany gets to try on Poland plus the British/French and Little Entente, and very likely the Soviets, with only half the panzer force as OTL. I am sure it will go well.


Of course the west hasn't guaranteed Poland as they did the Czechs, so they may let it go, especially as this is actually what the appeasers want. Germany to go east, and get embroiled with the Soviets so they can destroy each other. OTL the Soviets correctly read that this was the west's strategy, and refused to play, signing the ML pact. With the West standing behind the czechs at TTL Munich, Stalin is one crisis behind in this realization.

So the west signs off on Germany's demands on Poland at the munich 2 conference, but Stalin has offered to support them, as he did the czech's in 1938, and unlike the czech's he actually can. So the Poles, being the Poles, do the deal with the devil, and decide to fight. And Chamberlain and Daladier do a happy dance as the Soviets and Germans tear each other apart in 1939 and they aren't anywhere near it.

After a couple of years of slaughter, they threaten to intervene to stop whoever is winning, probably the soviets, from achieving very much.
 
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