I wonder, what would happen if Charles I had won at Marston Moor in 1644? Was the window of opportunity already closed for him by that point?
Effects of a Royal Victory in the English Civil War
- Thread starter Odinson
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FillyofDelphi
Banned
It's no silver bullet. Sure,York is releived, but what do you do next? The Covenanters are still riding hard in Scottland and the south is going in a strong Parlimentarian direction
Plus he will have trouble replacing his losses, not to mention supplies. By this time the Royalist military machine was on a downhill slope...
The cultural consequences of the Civil War were enormous and despite the best efforts of Charles II and the Cavalier Parliament the clock could not be turned back. However I would argue that 90% of those consequences were already there by 1642, the Long Parliament had asserted Parliamentary authority and half the country had taken up arms against the King. Whatever his father had written by 1643 Charles knew he could only push his subjects so far.
The post war settlement would be less generous than OTL's Indemnity and Oblivion Act but Charles won't hang every Parliamentary officer or MP, for the same reason the Parliamentarians restricted themselves to hanging only the most ardent and uncompromising Royalists and fining the rest. It was a Civil War and most Parliamentarians had Royalist siblings, cousins and friends and the reverse will apply here. If Charles is to tyrannical he won't have won the Civil War he will thrown away victory and kept the war going, a war he will lose in the end as he will have alienated his supporters.
The distrust of professional soldiers would be lessened but high military rank would be restricted to the elite whether by purchase or some other device as it was in pretty much every European Army of the era, see France, Prussia etc.
There will be some sort of confrontation with Scotland. The Covenanters aren't just going to submit to Episcopalianism and Charles was deeply committed to Episcopalianism, if he has a victorious army at his command it will march North to force the Prayer Book on the Scots.
There will be a conquest of Ireland, it will be bloody and there will be confiscations. The rebellion of 1641 made that inevitable.
Henrietta might well still marry Orleans, the pool of appropriate Princes is quite small and Orleans is one of the most prestigious. James, Duke of York not converting would be an important butterfly but there was a continuous Catholic presence at court and he was close to his Catholic mother so he might convert anyway. A bigger difference is that the Prince of Wales would almost certainly marry earlier and probably to someone other than Catherine of Braganza, probably meaning a heir of Charles's body and her dowry won't happen, possibly butterflying British India.
Henrietta will always be the second choice in the very short list of candidates as wife of Louis XIV and if the first one do not became available (she was already engaged and was freed by the death of her previous fiancé)... If not Orléans is still a good choice for Henrietta...
Catherine of Braganza can always marry James if Charles is already married... Her brother was pretty desperate in searching a good match for her (he had taken in consideration also don Juan Jose of Austria for her)
Anne Marie Louise d’Orleans as bride for Charles makes a lot of sense, specially with a royalist victory
Catherine of Braganza can always marry James if Charles is already married... Her brother was pretty desperate in searching a good match for her (he had taken in consideration also don Juan Jose of Austria for her)
Anne Marie Louise d’Orleans as bride for Charles makes a lot of sense, specially with a royalist victory
FillyofDelphi
Banned
Definately. Preferably you'd want a decisive turning point before the Scots intervene, since after that point the Royalists would never have a secure northern front and be able to make a decisive move into the southeast (Which you really need in order to have a Royalist victory). A Cannae at Adwalton Moor, which results in pursuit onto Kingston-upon-Hull and the a seizure of that key port, might spook the Converters enough to at least delay their attack, which would allow the Yourkshire forces to march onto London. If the capital is at least under siege, Parliament's legitimacy and reputations among the outer lords is going to take a severe knock. Of course, you will have the problem of...
Since the Bishop's War forced him to back down rather from a military humiliation rather than reaching a negotiated settlement, Charles' basic pride means he's going to want to wipe away that stain on his honor and will MAKE the Scots pay for sitting back and will need to enforce his principal of the Crown being supreme over any council and that trying to use force to get concessions can't be allowed to fly. The best you'll get is a delay unless the King dies sometime in the middle of the war, in which case Charles II MIGHT have less baggage and be willing to look the other way in exchange for his subjects being quiet.
Two French matches is unlikely. One makes complete sense but if you only have five really eligible candidates (Charles PoW, James, Mary, Elizabeth who might survive and Henrietta*) two French marriages is too many. Ideally you want a French or Spanish match for either the Prince of Wales or the Princess Royal and then Portuguese, Austrian, Dutch and Scandinavian matches for the remaining four. Though getting all five is a bit ASB and padding things out with a North German is likely.
*Henry as 3rd son isn't terribly attractive, his odds of succession are too low.
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Charles II and Catherine's betrothal was being discussed during the 1640s already, so I don't see Charles marrying elsewhere (unless La Grande Mademoiselle decides to throw her hat in the ring)
Charles I's original intention was Mary, Princess Royal to Baltasar Carlos and Elizabeth to Willem II of Orange. Felipe IV declined the offer of Mary's hand (didn't want his son to marry a heretic, Parliament was keen on letting Mary convert) and the Dutch wanted a marriage sooner rather than later, hence Charles giving them Mary (although he didn't think the Nassaus important enough to merit a king's eldest daughter).
In theory yes, but Anne Marie Louise’s dowry is simply too big for not concluding the match if the girl is interested and the number of candidates for Louis XIV is really ristrected: only three foreign princesses (Marie Therese of Spain, already engaged to Ferdinand IV of Austria, Henriette Anne of England and Margaret Yolande of Savoy) plus Marguerite Louise of Orléans (with Françoise Madeleine as outside choice).
Spanish/Austrian matches are unlikely because they had already a double engagement of heirs (Ferdinand IV of Austria, King of the Romans to Maria Theresa of Spain and Balthasar Carlos of Austria, prince of Asturias to Mariana of Austria), Felipe IV has no other children and the oldest girl who Austria can offer are 13 years younger than Charles...
So Austria and Spain are realistically out, Portugal has sense only with their princess Catherine married to Charles or James...
France can offer one of the biggest heiresses of Europe for the prince of Wales and likely their King for Henriette (if the choice is between Henriette, Marguerite and Margaret is clear who the first will be favorited) and a double match between Anne Marie Louise and Charles on one side and Louis and Henriette on the other will consent to both courts to spend les money (as some estates who the new princess of Wales can not keep can be transferred to Louis as dowry for Henriette).
Either Mary or Elizabeth will have the Dutch match, the other can have a Scandivian/German Protestant match (as both boys and the youngest girl have already married Catholics).
Henry, being the third son, will not be an attractive match for a royal princess but a (younger) daughter/sister/cousin/niece of some German Duke would be a suitable match for him (or he can always marry domestically with an heiress)
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