Effects of a Post-War Communist Germany

This thread carries on from "A More Soviet Dominated Europe", discussing what would happen in general if the Soviets through some means (Failed D-Day, Barbarossa less successful etc.) end up in control of all of Germany and other areas Post-War.

West Germany played a crucial part not only in the Cold War but was central to Western European Economics in the 1950s-1980s. What would happen if this base of capitalist power fell under the Iron Curtain.

What effect would it have on the development of NATO, the EU and European (and World) economics in general? Could West Germany's value be replaced by other markets or could it hand over a distinct advantage to the Reds during the Cold War on the continent.

I fear I like much knowledge of economics and would be very interested it what others had to say on the matter.
 
it would depend on how many germans fled west germany

Also I can see the french not leaving nato and being alot more capitalistic or going all the way communist nothing really in between
 

oberdada

Gone Fishin'
There is likely to happen something like the July 17th (1953) uprising, only this time its 80, and not 16 million Germans.
(Even more if Austria is part of the GDR (or SovietGermany, call it what you like))
This could lead to a long civil war.

The Beatles might be butterflied away. Playing in Hamburg was very important for their career.
 
The Soviets overtake the West as well. IIRC, France and Italy both had strong enough Communist parties to do so IOTL, and in this scenario Stalin won't throw that away. The Nordic countries will be more or less neutralised, and Spain/Portugal can be couped if not outright invaded. Britain will remain a military base in the American Empire against the Red expansionism, not entirely unlike the scenario in 1984.
 
The Soviets overtake the West as well. IIRC, France and Italy both had strong enough Communist parties to do so IOTL, and in this scenario Stalin won't throw that away. The Nordic countries will be more or less neutralised, and Spain/Portugal can be couped if not outright invaded. Britain will remain a military base in the American Empire against the Red expansionism, not entirely unlike the scenario in 1984.

I think that France and Italy could probably be convinced to stay anti-communist. The United States demonstrated their willingness to support less than democratic means and regimes in order to oppose communism elsewhere in the world, and I think that in this ATL they may do so in Western Europe (was going to say Europe . . . then remembered Greece).

Would the United States risk world war to support a German rebellion against Soviet rule? If Germany actually revolted ala Hungary then *NATO could intervene in Germany at the request of the provisional government, which would create all kinds of interesting problems. If this occurred soon after Stalin's death (following the Hungarian model) then could we potentially see the fall of Soviet Europe 40 years early, as Germany's successful revolts brings other Soviet-puppets into open revolt? Soviet Russia has a crisis of confidence and Europe falls to nationalist uprisings, while the Soviets manage to hang on to the USSR proper? This would certainly make things quite a bit more interesting as Africa de-colonized, along with changing the Sino-Soviet relationship quite a bit.
 
Why couldn't France and Italy also join the club of US-supported dictatorships if it a appeared that they would be pushed over to the other side?
 
The question is how durable dictatorships in either Italy or France (especially France!) would be. Theres also the question of just how much the USA is willing to spend. Keeping some South American countries on side is a simple matter of topping up a few dozen bank accounts every other month*. I am not convinced the same can be done in Europe. If the people as a whole feel they are much poorer than they were before the war (essentially a given due to the circumstances) and rather than helping the situation their governments are just American puppets then a revolution is on the cards.
 
Frankly given the way US Aid appeared post-war, Italy, France and Britain would all recieve vast funds to remain good free market democracies, I can see any elected communist government in Paris or Rome being quickly removed by Generals declaring electoral fraud.

However, regardless, Germany, communist or not, would be central to European reconstruction in 1945-1960 at the very least. In OTL, ludricously generous yet bizarre offers were made to West Germany pre-EU such as 250 tons of Danish lard, purely because German steel and coal was crucial. I can see a Soviet Germany either alienating Europe through stop and start supply, leading to greater US dependency, or the Ruhr becoming the blurring point of the Iron Curtain, leading at the very least to a more reformist Eastern Bloc
 
Frankly given the way US Aid appeared post-war, Italy, France and Britain would all recieve vast funds to remain good free market democracies, I can see any elected communist government in Paris or Rome being quickly removed by Generals declaring electoral fraud.

The Generals then form a "caretaker government" long enough for US Aid to convince the population that communism is NOT the way to go? Maybe kill some pesky labor leaders and disappear some socialist activists for good measure? Maybe De Gaulle sets up the Fifth Republic earlier?

However, regardless, Germany, communist or not, would be central to European reconstruction in 1945-1960 at the very least. In OTL, ludricously generous yet bizarre offers were made to West Germany pre-EU such as 250 tons of Danish lard, purely because German steel and coal was crucial. I can see a Soviet Germany either alienating Europe through stop and start supply, leading to greater US dependency, or the Ruhr becoming the blurring point of the Iron Curtain, leading at the very least to a more reformist Eastern Bloc

If all of Germany was under Soviet occupation, wouldn't that just mean that the Soviet rape (don't really know what else to call it- occupation doesn't seem strong enough) of Eastern Germany that was witnessed OTL is just the Soviet rape of Germany?

I would think that this would end up meaning that Germany is in no position to be "central to European reconstruction" since the Germans are suffering from the effects not only of WWII strategic bombing, but the effects of a very aggrieved Soviet state shipping whole industries East.

So a much greater industrial reliance on the Americans, or perhaps this gives the impetus for greater industrialization in France, UK and Italy? Maybe the British start a big modernization program to pick up post-war German slack?

Also, is all of Germany fallen to the Soviets, or can you leave Rhineland as Allied occupied. That would keep some very strategic bits of German industry out of Soviet hands, but at the same time create a rather interesting national identity, since the Rhineland would probably call itself the German Republic.

Would the entire scientific infastructure of Germany now fall to the Soviets? I'm thinking of van Braun, and the various other pieces of German technology that the Western Allies kept out of Soviet hands? Perhaps some covert missions to bring out German scientists from Soviet-occupied Germany?
 
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