Effects of a Neutral Ottoman Empire in WWI and after

Supposing for whatever reasonable reason that the Ottomans stay neutral in World War I, what if any affect would this have on the course of events in Europe, Russia, and the middle east (and elsewhere if it has even bigger effects)
 
Supposing for whatever reasonable reason that the Ottomans stay neutral in World War I, what if any affect would this have on the course of events in Europe, Russia, and the middle east (and elsewhere if it has even bigger effects)


First, Turkey was a major drain on the Allies in WW I.

By closing the Straits, Turkey cut off Russian grain exports and screwed their economy, and also blocked shipments of arms to Russia.

Russia also had to fight a major campaign in the Caucasus.

Britain was sucked into three major campaigns: Gallipoli, Mesopotamia, and Palestine, with enormous costs.

It's not clear what Turkish neutrality means for Bulgaria; Bulgaria remained neutral till the Gallipoli campaign failed, then joined the CPs and knifed Serbia. This led to the Salonika campaign, which was another huge running sore for the Allies. Bulgaria might do that anyway, and it will be harder to bullyrag Greece into "joining" the Allies when the Allies aren't fighting Turkey.

But Bulgaria may stay neutral; Russia will be stronger, and the threat of Russia and Romania coming down would be a deterrent, with no offsetting support from Turkey (or from Germany as based in Turkey).

If Bulgaria remains neutral - Serbia holds out longer against Austria.

Romania may be induced to join the Allies sooner, and will not be attacked from the south. Romania can also import arms from the Allies.

Possibly Austria begins to fall apart in 1916. When Emperor Karl succeeded Franz Josef OTL in 11/16, he soon began seeking a separate peace. ITTL, that's even more determined.

At the same time, Russia should be stronger and not fall apart in 1917; or perhaps not till late 1917.

It does not seem likely that Germany will refrain from submarine warfare and provoking U.S. entry on the Allied side. That could precipitate Austrian withdrawal from the war, if Karl is scared enough. Germany might try to force Austria to keep fighting, as with Hungary in WW II, but I think that would backfire.

Germany can't fight on without Austria. So the war probably ends in mid-to-late 1917, just in time to avoid the Russian Revolution.

The settlement will be very different from OTL, of course. Romania would get what it did OTL (why not?) but not Moldova. Russia... would want Galicia, but probably has been driven out of Poland. Does Germany give it back?

Karl will try to hold Austria-Hungary together, but Hungary will break away, and probably the Czech lands. Italy will get Trentino and Istria; maybe not Sudtirol.

The situation in the Balkans is weird. OT1H Austria-Hungary is negotiating a peace, not falling to bits as OTL; OTOH, Serbia will be in a stronger position.

France will insist on Alsace Lorraine, of course. The Kaiser may be able to cling to power. Russia... Victory will not be sweet, and the returning troops may be radicalized.

For the Middle East - enormous differences, if only because vast numbers of people don't get killed. Turkey had the highest proportion of war deaths to total population of any major belligerent. Probably no Armenian massacres and almost certainly no Greco-Turkish War. Nonetheless, the Sultanate is on shaky footing. But I can't see how things go with such a radically different beginning. (Note also that Turkey doesn't regain the Caucasus territory lost in 1878.)

Arab nationalism hasn't even started, and probably doesn't start for another generation or so. The Saudis don't get control of the Holy Cities.

No Balfour Declaration. The Zionists however have made a start in Palestine.

If there is no Russian Revolution, then large scale Jewish emigration from Russia continues, which could be boost to Zionist settlement - if Turkey allows it.

Some broader economic effects: all of the major belligerents spend a good deal less on the war. Russia remains part of the conventional world economy. Britain may still be reduced to a debtor nation, but not as deep. Dunno about France. Germany probably gets off paying reparations. The U.S. is substantially less convulsed by the "total war effort".

Wilson (if he gets re-elected) will have much less influence on the peace settlement.
 
snipped awesome analyses
So Germany loses less but earlier and the Hapsburg's still rule in Austria. If the German economy crashes in the '30s as OTL then the Nazis will probably come to power .

If that does happen then the Nazis will be very anti-Hapsburg. If could have won if they hadn't stabbed us in the back ect. So Austria will ally its self with Britain and France against Germany. Maybe even going to the extent of autocratic rule by Karl to prevent the Austrian Nazis taking over.

A scenario: After re-militarizing the Rhineland and taking the Sudetenland Hitler demands anschluss and Austria refuses. The western powers most likely back Austria and Hitler invades.

With troops diverted to fighting Austria (Blitzkrieg doesn't work very well in the Alps) France may just be able to hold out. Obviously we now have a very different second world war.
 
Oh, the butterflies are being wiped out...

Now to the point: with a negotiated peace there will be no demilitarising Rheinland, and much of the OTL Versailles restrictions won't come into being.

And no German politician would be able to demand Sudetenland as ITTL it'd most likely stay Austrian.

Besides, NO NAZIS.
 
Oh, the butterflies are being wiped out...

Now to the point: with a negotiated peace there will be no demilitarising Rheinland, and much of the OTL Versailles restrictions won't come into being.

And no German politician would be able to demand Sudetenland as ITTL it'd most likely stay Austrian.

Besides, NO NAZIS.
Fair enough then, I didn't really put a lot of thought into my reply :eek:.

So would the Kaiser be able to stay in power with a negotiated peace or would Germany become a republic as happened after OTL's WWI?

Do you think Austria-Hungary would be divided up in the peace treaty, break up afterward or manage to stay united?
 
Fair enough then, I didn't really put a lot of thought into my reply :eek:.

So would the Kaiser be able to stay in power with a negotiated peace or would Germany become a republic as happened after OTL's WWI?

Do you think Austria-Hungary would be divided up in the peace treaty, break up afterward or manage to stay united?

Well, if you want to you can save the Hohenzollern monarchy with a POD in January 1918 without a problem. Considering how a large part of the population was against a republic and considered the emperor as well as the local monarchs to be the protectors of Protestant faith (just like they did with Hitler later...) it isn't hard to keep the monarchy as long as the emperor's power is weakened and Wilhelm II abdicates.
The sole resistance to this may come from the French, but the British, Belgians and probably the Americans as well would be willing to accept a surviving genuine German Empire.

Also the Hungarians wanted independence rather badly after the dream of returning home victorious by Christmas 1914 was shattered. You could save parts of the Habsburg monarchy, maybe an Austria-Croatia. The Czech, Poles and Hungarians however are certainly lost as soon as loosing the war is on the horizon.
 
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